972
FXUS64 KBRO 170805
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
305 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

500 mb low pressure, which helped generate showers/thunderstorms
over the BRO CWFA on Monday, has shifted farther southwest into
neighboring Mexico, resulting in mid-level high pressure that will
be more of an influence during the period. Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley will experience dry conditions today and
into the middle of the week. The increased presence of the high,
combined with generally limited cloud cover, will allow daytime
high and overnight low temperatures to rise to above normal levels
for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An active weather pattern is forecast for this period. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated as deep
tropical moisture, featuring precipitable water values near or in
excess of 2 inches, surges into Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley and persists. The latest drought map for the inland
portion of the BRO CWFA indicates a range of generally no drought
to Abnormally Dry conditions for a majority of the region. Thus,
initial rounds of convection may not require a Flood Watch.
However, if showers and thunderstorms become persistent and even
repetitive, then a Watch may be needed as the Long Term forecast
period progresses.

Temperature-wise, not surprisingly, the sustained opportunity for
convection, coupled with increased cloud cover, will result in
daytime highs running at slightly below normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light to moderate
southerly winds prevail across all TAF sites. Generally VFR
conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Moderate winds
overnight will increase and become breezy later this morning, some
gusts near 25 knots will be possible. Limited cloud cover are
anticipated with little to no chance of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A slight intensification of the surface pressure gradient will
result in Small Craft Should Exercise Caution along the Lower
Texas Coast, especially due to winds.

(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail along the Lower
Texas Coast through the period with a more modest pressure
gradient in place. Neither Small Craft Should Exercise Caution nor
Small Craft Advisory are anticipated to be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  80  94  80 /  10   0  10  20
HARLINGEN               97  78  96  78 /  10   0  10  10
MCALLEN                101  79 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  82  88  80 /  10   0  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  79  92  78 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tomaselli-66
LONG TERM...Tomaselli-66
GRAPHICS/UPPER AIR...Ellzey-60