995
FXUS64 KBRO 262313
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
513 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- The passage of a cold front will bring adverse marine and beach
  conditions through this evening and tonight along the Lower
  Texas beaches and Gulf waters.

- Thanksgiving Day will feature rain-free conditions and
  temperatures closer to seasonal normals, mostly in the 70s.

- A strong cold front arrives early Sunday with much cooler
  temperatures and dangerous surf/boating conditions returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A cold front continues to slowly move across the Rio Grande Valley
this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms slowly moving east
and southeast ahead of the front. This activity should continue to
move towards the Lower RGV and south of the Rio Grande River over
the next 1-2 hours, before only light stratiform rain lingers
through the afternoon hours. Expect post-frontal cloud cover to
persist through the afternoon hours as well, as the warm, moist
airmass ahead of the frontal boundary overruns the cooler airmass.
Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the 60s across most
of Deep South Texas, with the exception across far southern
Cameron County, including Brownsville and Port Isabel, where
temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 70s. This will be
short-lived, however, as the cold front approaches this afternoon.
Expect breezy winds to subside later this evening as the pressure
gradient slackens, with low temperatures tonight ranging from the
mid 50s across the Northern Ranchlands to low to mid 60s across
the Rio Grande Valley. Along the Lower Texas beaches, a High Risk
of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory will be in effect through
this evening due to the combination of breezy winds and elevated
seas.

Thanksgiving Day will feature temperatures around 10 to 15
degrees cooler than earlier this week, with highs mostly in the
70s region wide, and rain-free conditions. Low level easterly and
southeasterly flow returns by Friday evening, which will allow for
temperatures to return above normal for late November once again.
Additionally, a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next
upper level system and associated surface features will result in
breezy southerly winds on Saturday, with wind gusts up to 30 MPH.

The next cold front is expected to arrive across the Northern
Ranchlands by early Sunday morning and by mid Sunday morning
across the Rio Grande Valley. There are still discrepancies among
ensemble and deterministic guidance at this time on the exact
timing of the front, which would impact the high temperature on
Sunday. Typically, these shallow, cold airmasses tend to have a
faster timing than deterministic guidance due to their shallow
nature, and the NAM captures these trends better. All in all, a
notably colder airmass, especially in comparison to the cold front
from this (Wednesday) morning/afternoon, will spill southward
through the day, resulting in below normal temperatures through
early next week. The latest guidance indicates high temperatures
on Monday will likely range from the upper 50s and low 60s across
the Northern Ranchlands to mid and upper 60s across the Rio Grande
Valley. We`ll likely start the month of December with well below
normal temperatures. Stay tuned for updates!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Through 00z Friday....As of this update, a SCT-OVC deck of stratocumulus
clouds with VFR-MVFR ceilings between 1,500-3,000 feet AGL were
taking place at the local terminals. Little to no changes is expected
over the next 6-9 hours as the latest satellite observations show
an abundance of cloud cover left behind the frontal passage.
Based off trends, VFR-MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through
the 00z TAF cycle with cloud coverage and flight categories
gradually improving in time.

Winds will continue out of the north-northeast with speeds between 5-
15 kts through the 00z TAF period. Winds could gusts as high as 20-
25 kts, particularly during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Adverse marine conditions are expected through tonight in wake of
the passage of a cold front, with a Small Craft Advisory in
effect. Periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will
likely continue through Friday. Adverse marine conditions return
once again by early Saturday in response to yet another
approaching cold front. The cold front is expected to track across
the region by Sunday, and adverse conditions are likely through at
least late Sunday evening before gradually improving early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             68  78  67  79 /  40  10  10  20
HARLINGEN               61  78  62  79 /  20  10   0  20
MCALLEN                 63  78  65  79 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         58  75  62  78 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      72  76  72  77 /  40  10  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     67  78  66  78 /  30  10   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma