913
FXUS64 KBRO 190541 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Unsettled weather expected into next week.

- Precipitation chances remain highest in the low/mid RGV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Deep tropical moisture will build across the area as a tropical
wave moves westward into Mexico while ridging overhead begins to
weaken. This influx of tropical moisture along with diurnal
heating/instability will lead to increased rainfall chances across
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, mainly each afternoon
into the evening. Rainfall chances across the lower/mid Valley
will be 50-60% Thursday afternoon into the evening and increasing
to 70-80% on Friday, while in the Northern Ranchlands into the
upper Valley will be 30-50% Thursday to 50-70% on Friday. PWATS
will increase to around 2 on Thursday, so any showers or
thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall. Along with heavy rainfall, cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will be possible with the heaviest
activity. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Unsettled weather continues through the long term period thanks to
the continued influx of tropical moisture with daily precipitation
chances. Chances remain generally 30-50% in the lower/mid valley
and 20-30% in the Ranchlands to upper Valley. Locally heavy
rainfall will still remain a threat along with cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds with the heaviest activity. High
temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the early
morning. MVFR to IFR conditions could develop periodically
through the day as some isolated to scattered convection likely
develops across the area. The most likely timing for any impacts
at the TAF sites will be early this afternoon, however earlier or
later development can`t be ruled out. Outside of any storms, VFR
conditions will likely prevail through much of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Generally favorable conditions are expect across the waters off the
lower Texas coast. Rain and thunderstorms chances persist though
the period which could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  79  91  78 /  50  50  80  40
HARLINGEN               92  76  91  76 /  50  40  70  20
MCALLEN                 95  77  93  76 /  50  30  70  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  76  90  74 /  30  20  50  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  79  86  80 /  60  50  80  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  89  78 /  50  40  80  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...60-BE