Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
037 FXUS64 KBRO 162325 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 525 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue across Deep South Texas through mid-week. By Wednesday, winds should increase which could elevate fire danger. - There is a small to medium (20 to 40 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with the passage of the next cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 High pressure is expected to continue over Deep South Texas and slowly drift eastward as another upper level trough approaches from the west and ejects over the Southern Plains mid-week. Precipitation- free and unseasonably warm weather is expected to continue through at least Wednesday evening. Highs will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s through Thursday, and then drop back down into the low-to-mid 80s on Friday as a weak cold front arrives to the area. Lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s, and cool to the upper 50s/lower 60s by Friday night once the front makes its way through Deep South Texas. The approaching upper level trough will also increase wind speeds Wednesday night into Thursday as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. As the winds pick up and fuels continue to dry out from rain-free conditions, fire danger is expected to increase. There will also be an increased chance (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night across all of Deep South Texas due ample moisture and frontal convergence. Rain chances may also continue into the weekend if the frontal boundary stalls and lingers in the area. If this happens, the highest weekend chances would be east of US 281/I-69E. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Light to moderate southeast winds and clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds are expected to gradually decrease through the evening hours into overnight. Winds will increase mid to late Monday morning becoming moderate to gusty in the afternoon. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of some fog late tonight/near daybreak as winds become very light. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Marine conditions will be overall favorable through Wednesday, but SCEC conditions are possible each afternoon, especially in the Laguna Madre. By Wednesday Night, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten ahead of an approaching cold front, and Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible through Thursday night before conditions start to improve again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 72 88 73 88 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 68 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 72 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 83 76 83 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 87 71 87 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55-MM LONG TERM....55-MM AVIATION...63-KC