550
FXUS64 KBRO 021740
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

-Shower and thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon and return
again for the weekend.

-Heat Risk will remain Minor (level 1 out of 4) to Moderate (level 2
out of 4) for much of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A frontal boundary remains draped across Deep South Texas through
Tuesday maintaining rain and thunderstorm chances across the region.
Light northerly flow has allowed for some drier air to filter into
Deep South Texas, the dewpoint dropped to 69 degrees in the past
hour at McAllen. The combination of a weak boundary, daytime heating
and high moisture content (PWATs of 2.17 inches per BRO 12Z sounding
this morning) will allow another around of showers and thunderstorms
to develop across the area this afternoon. Brownsville radar
currently indicates isolated activity across portions of the
northern ranchlands and across the Gulf waters. There is a medium
(30 to 60 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any slow
moving shower or thunderstorm, potentially leading to ponding of
water on roadways and low lying areas. Thunderstorms will also be
capable of producing gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning. Rain
chances will decrease tonight into Wednesday morning as frontal
boundary moves south and high pressure builds across the region.
Generally rain-free conditions are expected across Deep
South Texas Wednesday through Friday.

Rain chances increase again for the weekend as another cold front
approaches South Texas. Moisture pooling ahead of the frontal
boundary will support medium (30 to 60 percent) rain chances
Saturday into early next week.

Temperatures will remain near to above normal through the period.
Daily heat indices are expected to range between 100 and 105 across
much of the area. The heat risk will remain Minor (level 1 out of 4)
to Moderate (level 2 out of 4).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Some convection will develop again this afternoon as isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms form along a sea-breeze and weak
frontal boundary. BRO radar currently indicates ongoing activity
along the coast and across the northern ranchlands, north of the
aerodromes. Brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions will be
possible in and around these showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light
and variable winds early this afternoon becoming northeasterly or
easterly later this afternoon. Light and variable winds will
return later this evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Light to moderate winds and low seas will maintain generally
favorable conditions through the period. Shower and thunderstorm
chances are expected to continue today into Wednesday as a frontal
boundary lingers across the region. Showers and thunderstorms
increase again for the weekend as another cold front approaches the
region. Stronger winds and higher seas will be possible in and
around any thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  94  77  96 /  40  20  10  10
HARLINGEN               74  97  73  99 /  30  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 78 101  77 103 /  30  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         75 101  75 103 /  30  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  89  80  89 /  40  20  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  92  75  93 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...63-KC