Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
215 FXUS64 KBRO 192306 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 506 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 503 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Very warm and breezy weather conditions are expected to persist through the middle parts of next week. - Near day-to-day low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected from Thursday to Monday night. - Record to near record-breaking temperatures will take place through this week. - South-southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph will take place nearly each day through early next week. - Moderate to breezy winds will result in at times adverse marine and coastal conditions through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Mid level ridging aloft will persist today, which will maintain well above-normal temperatures and generally rain-free conditions this afternoon. However, a more unsettled weather pattern returns tomorrow through the weekend as an upper level trough/low and attendant surface features advance towards the state over the next 24 hours or so. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient along the immediate coast, and allow for precipitable water values to increase to around 1.5-1.6 inches region wide by Thursday and Friday. While the better forcing for ascent will remain north of Deep South Texas, isolated showers or storms may develop late Thursday across portions of the Northern Ranchlands. The latest guidance indicates the attendant front will likely remain north and west of the region until sometime Friday afternoon or evening. The combination of high moisture content, diurnal instability, and the lingering frontal boundary will result in daily low to medium (20-50%) precipitation chances region wide through early next week. Guidance indicates another upper level system is expected to approach the region by late Sunday or Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 503 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. There will be a potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility early tomorrow morning, primarily at MFE. Winds will decrease tonight but remain elevated enough to help limit any fog development. Winds become breezy mid morning to early afternoon again on Thursday with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will exist each afternoon through early next week along the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. Conditions may briefly reach Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday afternoon as an upper level system approaches. Low precipitation chances return Friday through the weekend, which may result in locally enhanced winds and seas. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1023 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A strong 588-591 dam mid-level heat ridge will continue to drive record to near record-breaking temperatures through this week. Below are a list of records over the next few days for Brownsville, Harlingen, and McAllen. Wednesday, November 19, 2025 Record High Temperatures: * Brownsville: 92F in 1964 * Harlingen: 92F in 2011 * McAllen: 94F in 1988 Thursday, November 20, 2025 Record High Temperatures: * Brownsville: 88F in 2013 & 1900 * Harlingen: 93F in 1988 * McAllen: 92F in 1994 Friday, November 21, 2025 Record High Temperatures: * Brownsville: 89F in 1977 & 1900 * Harlingen: 90F in 2007, 1994, & 1946 * McAllen: 93F in 2007 23-Evbuoma && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 87 74 89 / 10 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 69 89 71 91 / 10 10 0 10 MCALLEN 73 91 73 93 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 92 69 93 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 77 84 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 71 88 / 10 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...68