076
FXUS64 KBRO 261936
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
236 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The mid-level ridge will continue to be the driving force for the
weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as it moves
eastward. A weak surface high over the Gulf of Mexico will help
maintain the offshore flow that will help bring in some moisture to
the region. PWATs are expected to increase to around 2 inches
tomorrow as more moisture moves into the region. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible during the short term forecast
period, mainly along any sort of developing sea breeze.

As for the temperatures, high temperatures for tomorrow are expected
to be in the range of mid to upper 90s. Thanks to the amount of
moisture in the atmosphere, it will certainly feel hotter with heat
indices in the triple digits. However, does not look like a Heat
Advisory will be needed. As for the low temperatures, for tonight,
the lows are generally expected to be in the 70s with a few places
in the 80s. However tomorrow night, the low temperatures for most of
the Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley will be in the 80s, while the
rest of the area will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mid level high pressure will remain over Texas through much of the
period, sliding slightly eastward by midweek. At the same time a
midlevel inverted shortwave will propagate westward moving into Deep
South Texas/Northern Mexico on Friday. Energy associated with this
shortwave will allow for shower/thunderstorm activity into Friday
afternoon. As continued shortwaves move through the southern
periphery of the ridge through the weekend and next week, rain
chances will continue. The best chance of rainfall through the long
term period will be on Sunday with generally a 40 to 50 percent
chance of precipitation throughout Deep South Texas.

Temperatures will remain near normal each day, and heat indices may
reach 100-111 degrees in a few isolated locations for a brief period
of time, mainly through Saturday. Heat Advisories are not
anticipated. Patchy fog will also be possible each morning through
the period.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave over the
central Carribean that will propagate westward into the Bay of
Campeche this weekend. Currently there is a 20 chance of development
on this disturbance in the next 7 days. Forecasts continue to show
little to no development of this system, but will continue to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Scattered clouds are possible during the overnight
hours, and the southeasterly winds should be weaker during the
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Tonight through Thursday Night...High pressure over the eastern Gulf
will help to maintain a light to moderate southeasterly flow with
moderate seas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over
the waters through Thursday night.

Friday through Tuesday....Onshore flow will continue through the
forecast period. Caution conditions are expected through the
weekend with winds of 15 to 20 kts. Winds will decrease Sunday
night into Monday with favorable conditions through Tuesday. Waves
of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  94  81  94 /  10  30  20  20
HARLINGEN               76  95  78  96 /   0  20  10  20
MCALLEN                 80  97  81  97 /   0  20   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  96  79  95 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  89  83  89 /  10  20  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  92  79  92 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...64-Katz