473
FXUS64 KBRO 091133 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
633 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

-Low to medium rain chances continue through Friday.

-Moderate to high risk of rip currents expected through this
 weekend into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Onshore flow and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will
continue to lead to shower and thunderstorm activity into Friday.
With PWATs around 2 inches, we could see heavy rainfall with this
activity leading to nuisance ponding of water on roadways and low
lying areas. Rain chances will decrease Friday night as drier air
moves in. While conditions will remain mostly dry this weekend
into early next week, could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm
each afternoon through the remainder of the period, mainly along
the sea breeze.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal with daily highs
in the low to mid 90s with 80s along the coast. Overnight lows
will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Onshore flow and elevated wave heights will continue with a
moderate to high risk of of rip currents through Friday, remaining
moderate into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Light and variable winds prevail across Deep South Texas early
this morning. BRO radar currently indicates some activity
northwest of HRL and over the Gulf waters. Mainly VFR conditions
will continue through the next 24 hours. However, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area later this
morning into the afternoon. The latest HRRR suggests some
convection may impact the aerodromes later this morning with a
possible another round this afternoon. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible in and
around any convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A tightening pressure gradient through Friday will lead to
elevated winds and seas on the waters off the lower Texas coast.
Small craft will need to exercise caution through Friday,
especially on the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers
continue into Friday, before chances decrease over the weekend.
Any shower or thunderstorm could produce locally higher winds and
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  77  89  73 /  70  40  40  10
HARLINGEN               90  73  91  68 /  60  20  40  10
MCALLEN                 93  75  93  70 /  60  20  40  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  72  93  66 /  60  20  30   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  86  78 /  60  40  40  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  76  88  73 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...63-KC