795
FXUS64 KBRO 101133 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
633 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

* Isolated showers will persist through Friday morning as rain
  chances/trends continue to decrease.

* Following a weak cool fropa, drier air and weather conditions
  return Friday evening and persist through next Friday.

* Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal levels
  through next Friday.

* A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM CDT
  Saturday, and a High Risk for Rip Currents is in effect through
  7 PM Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended through Friday and
Friday night, expiring Saturday 7 AM CDT. Minimal coastal flooding
impacts are expected during the day as tides continue to lower
through the morning, with low tide at SPI occurring around 11:33
AM CDT. Greatest coastal flooding impacts will be realized near
high tide, around 10:34 PM CDT Friday night. Current forecast
water levels surrounding low tide are expected to be below
Advisory criteria, however, decided to maintain Advisory for
continuity of messaging. (69-HEK)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Latest sfc analysis reveals a weak cool front over the Gulf Waters
adjacent to the border of Kenedy County. Multiple clusters of
showers were also taking place over the Gulf Waters with much of
the activity well to our south over Northeastern Mexico. Through
Friday morning, expect for isolated showers to be around with
trends decreasing in time as the cool front continues to slowly
shift southward through Deep South Texas and adjacent Gulf Waters.

Drier air and weather conditions return Friday afternoon/evening
following the cool fropa as mid-upper ridging builds over the region
and sfc high pressure increases its influence over the area. Drier
air and weather conditions are expected to then persist through the
rest of the forecast period or through next Friday.

East to northeast winds will continue breezy on Friday with speeds
between 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, thanks to a continued
enhanced pressure gradient from a broad and anomalously strong high
pressure system over the Northeast U.S.

With the normal high temperature at Brownsville/South Padre Island
International Airport (KBRO), anomalies through next Friday will
continue to run slightly warmer than normal levels. Overnight lows
will be in the 60s and 70s through the forecast period.

(SEE UPDATE) Finally, a Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Risk
for Rip Currents are in effect till 7 AM CDT Friday morning based
on observations seen from webcams along the South Padre Island
beaches earlier and observations/forecasts from the SPI Brazos
Santiago Station.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions and north-northeasterly flow are expected to
prevail for the 12Z TAF cycle. Showers and thunderstorms popping
up over the region will continue traversing southwestward through
the morning. Confidence in exact timing of any showers over a
specific site is low, however, most likely timing of impacts are
denoted by PROB30s (BRO/HRL now until 16Z, MFE until 18Z). Hi-res
guidance suggests showers may continue through the afternoon,
moving out by 00Z. Any shower or storm that passes over an
airfield has potential to bring gusty winds, lightning, and heavy
rain reducing visibility.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

An enhanced pressure gradient from a broad and strong sfc high
pressure system over the Northeast U.S. will continue to result in
elevated east-northeast winds and seas with wave heights between
3-6 feet (SCEC conditions) through Friday evening. Marine conditions
will begin to improve over the weekend as winds relax resulting in
wave heights between 2-4 feet. Favorable marine conditions will
continue through next week with wave heights between 2-4 feet on
light to moderate east-southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  71  89  69 /  40   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               91  68  91  64 /  40   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 93  70  94  67 /  40   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  65  93  65 /  40   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  78  85  77 /  30   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  72  87  69 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...69-HK