778
FXUS61 KBTV 071115
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few isolated showers will pass through today, but they will be
brief and most areas should remain dry. After they move out in the
evening, drier and cooler weather will prevail for much of next week
as high pressure becomes well established across the region. The
next widespread rain chance does not look to occur until after next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Sunday...A coastal low is bringing some light
stratiform rain to southeastern areas, but as its center moves off
to the east, the rain will very slowly exit. Skies have been
gradually clearing from west to east, and that trend will continue
for the rest of the night. Patchy fog has been quickly developing as
skies have cleared, due to light boundary layer winds and abundant
moisture from yesterday`s rain. The conditions are favorable enough
that even some lingering high clouds have not been enough to stop
it. The fog will slowly lift this morning and there should be a mix
of sun and clouds for the rest of the day. Lake effect rain showers
have developed on Lake Ontario this evening and with southwesterly
flow, these have been able to make their way into southern St.
Lawrence County and they should continue off and on there into this
morning. A shortwave will pass through the region during the day
today, with the strongest dynamics over northern areas. It will help
cause a few isolated showers and slightly enhance the lake effect
over St. Lawrence County. Any lingering showers will exit the region
in the evening and dry weather will prevail through Monday. Boundary
layer winds should remain elevated tonight and prevent ideal
radiational cooling and widespread valley fog, but temperatures will
still be able to fall into the forties for most places. Monday will
be a classic early fall day with highs in the sixties to around
seventy, low humidity and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure centers itself over the
region Monday night, leading to ideal radiational cooling. With a
cool and dry airmass in place, temperatures will drop quickly. Lows
will be in the 30s and 40s in most areas, and the coldest hollows of
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom should be able to see some
frost. It`s exact extent is still uncertain but a Frost Advisory may
need to be issued for parts of the Adirondacks in the future.
Another gorgeous day is in store for Tuesday with highs in the upper
sixties to mid seventies, low humidity and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure is strongly favored to build
over the region through Thursday with light southerly surface flow
in general. Persistent ridging and dry conditions will allow for
temperatures to trend warmer through mid week with highs likely
ranging in the 70s. Guidance strongly agrees that there will be a
sharpening of the ridge axis over the mid west allowing for dry
frontal passage Thursday that will shift temperatures back below
seasonal averages in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. These conditions
are favored to linger into next weekend. As such, no meaningful
precipitation is currently expected for this period keeping drought
conditions ongoing.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Widespread mist/fog is occurring in areas
where skies have intermittently cleared aloft. Conditions are
ranging VFR/VLIFR with BTV on the edge of heavy cirrus cloud
shield and clearer skies. IFR seems to be over at BTV with a
sneaky BKN080 deck below the cirrus causing disruption to
radiational cooling and dispersing fog/stratus prior to sunrise.
MPV is experiencing this same disruption with 1/4sm in fog
lifting to unrestricted, although MPV has maintained a BKN003.
This low level stratus will likely improve to VFR by 13Z. SLK/EFK
will keep VLIFR in dense fog through 13Z. VFR conditions are
anticipated after 13Z as a trough swings into northern New
York. This trough will produce some showers with some chances of
MVFR CIGs in the 15-20Z time frame for northern terminals. High
pressure building in behind this trough will promote more fog
after 02Z Monday, especially at MPV/SLK/EFK.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd