121
FXUS61 KBTV 211821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
221 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

1. Dry and seasonable conditions are expected as we head into
the weekend through Saturday.

2. A pair of systems will increase precipitation chances across
northern New York and southeastern Vermont into the latter portion
of the weekend.

3. Seasonable conditions prevail for much of next week with
several chances for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and relatively seasonable conditions are expected to
prevail into the early portion of the weekend with high pressure
overhead. Fair weather cumulus will wane towards this evening with
clearing skies tonight. More cloud cover is possible in southeastern
Vermont, associated with a departing coast low off the coast of
southern New England. Temperatures tonight will be cooler across the
northern and western locations falling into the upper 40s to low
50s; mid 50s for the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont. A few
sheltered locations could fall as low as the low 40s in portions of
the Adirondacks with strong radiational cooling. Patchy river fog in
the Connecticut River and sheltered river valleys of the Adirondacks
and eastern Vermont will be possible near sunrise tomorrow morning.

Clouds will increase from southeast to northwest in Vermont, with
some clearing hanging on across the St. Lawrence Valley by tomorrow
afternoon. Temperatures will be fairly similar to today; about a
degree or two warmer with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. More
southeasterly light breezes, especially in the Champlain Valley are
expected as another coastal low rides up the East Coast by mid to
late Saturday. Saturday night lows will be a bit warmer with less
fog and radiational cooling from increased cloud cover, with values
in the mid to upper 50s in the higher terrain, and low 60s in the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Precipitation chances begin to
slowly increase late Saturday night as the coastal low departs to
the east, and an approaching Great Lakes Trough slides east into
northern New York.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a calm start to the weekend, conditions will
turn more wet and showery by the latter portion of the weekend. As
high pressure drifts to the northwest, it will leave in its wake an
area of subsidence and subtle ridging centered from northeast to
southwest across Vermont Saturday and Sunday. A pair of systems will
split this area of ridging bringing shower chances to portions of
the area. The first of the two systems will be a weak coastal low
along the coast of southern New England, which will track near Cape
Cod and is expected to continue moving northeast out into the Gulf
of Maine. Some showers may be possible in eastern Windsor and Orange
Counties Saturday night, however, recent trends have suggested
steadier precipitation associated with the coastal system will stay
east of the Connecticut River. Any showers that do develop in
southeastern Vermont will be light in nature.

The second, higher confidence, system will be an approaching long
wave trough that will track east from the Great Lakes region. The
trough translates east into the St. Lawrence Valley late Saturday
into early Sunday, with scattered rounds of showers. The trough
slowly tracks east through the day Sunday reaching Vermont by late
Sunday into Sunday night. While an isolated rumble of thunder with
the shower activity cannot be ruled out, especially if an earlier
shower can tap into better diurnal instability, chances are
relatively low with poor mid level lapse rates, cool surface
temperatures, and a lack of true instability. In all likelihood, the
boundary will be a mess of scattered to isolated showers with some
breaks in between, focused mainly over northern New York, and
somewhat weakening as it moves east. Between both systems during the
day Saturday, and most of Sunday, Vermont will be straddled between
in a "no mans land" of dry and cloudy conditions. Chances for
showers do not increase for Vermont until Sunday afternoon, though
some isolated sprinkles or mist will be possible, especially in the
higher terrain, due to low to mid level stratus clouds.
Precipitation amounts will be light and have trended down in recent
model runs, with probabilities of half an inch now below 50%. The
higher amounts around a quarter inch will be in northern New York,
primarily in the northern St. Lawrence Valley, and the spine of the
Greens. The trough will pull away to the northeast heading towards
Monday. As the trough occludes and drifts northeast, the parent
upper low will continue to keep showers chances around with wrap
around cyclonic flow. Clouds and shower chances near the
International Border and northern New York will continue through the
day Monday with seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Seasonable weather is expected to prevail throughout
next week, with several chances for showers possible. As the upper
level trough from this weekend exits the region, a few lingering
showers will be possible into Tuesday, particularly across the
higher terrain as broad cyclonic flow persists. A brief period of
ridging is expected to build in for the middle of the week, bringing
some drier weather. Additional shower chances look to arrive for the
end of the week as another system moves through, although details
are still a little uncertain at this time. Temperatures next week
look to be quite seasonable, with high temperatures generally in the
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals, and will continue for much of the forecast period with
high pressure centered over the region. The only exception of VFR
conditions will be the development of fog overnight at the more
favored terminals. THe greatest confidence for IFR or lower will be
at KMPV, although fog development may also be possible at KSLK and
KEFK, generally after 07Z or so. Winds this afternoon continue to be
light and northerly, less than 10 knots, trending calm and/or
terrain driven overnight. Winds will become more southerly after 12Z
towards the end of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Danzig
AVIATION...Kremer