746
FXUS61 KBTV 031130
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
South winds today will become locally strong ahead of a cold
front, especially in much of northern New York towards the St
Lawrence Valley and along portions of Highway 11. Widespread
showers, with an embedded line of heavier rain and possible
rumbles of thunder, will sweep across the region during the
afternoon and evening, followed by gusty westerly winds across
much of the region late tonight into Tuesday. A stormy week
will continue with three more periods of rain and high elevation
snow anticipated through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 249 AM EST Monday...The previous forecast largely is in
good shape as a dynamic low pressure system arrives from the
west this afternoon. Starting with precipitation before moving
onto wind, ample surface convergence and upper air divergence
will force widespread showers out ahead of the surface front.
This front will promote an embedded line of heavy rainfall, and
possibly lightning as some CAMs explicitly are indicating. The
mid-level temperatures would be cold enough to support a slight
chance of thunder in relatively low-topped convection. For now,
have coverage mainly limited to Vermont where guidance provides
a little more confidence than farther west, but the
probabilities of thunder are not too much less in northern New
York. In fact, have noted that the latest run of the GEFS with
machine learning output of thunder probability is highest in St.
Lawrence and Franklin Counties in New York. A quick 0.1" to
0.25" of rain will be common, with lighter showers of a few
hundreths of an inch possible out ahead of heavy rain.

Additional showers are expected as well behind the front as a
favorable upslope northwest upper level pattern with surface
westerly winds develop as sufficient moisture remains present.
In the context of the terrain, this looks like a largely
unblocked situation with such a well-mixed, cold-air advection
pattern, so while PoPs are kept elevated, western slopes of the
Greens should see limited precipitation. As temperatures fall,
this pattern should support several hours of snowfall
accumulation near and downwind of Jay Peak. While the forecast currently
shows this snowfall of up to a few inches mainly after 7 AM,
would not be surprised if some wet snow accumulates above 2500
feet prior to that time. Otherwise, precipitation chances
tomorrow will dwindle during the day across northeastern Vermont
and become less than 10% elsewhere by midday.

An impressive pressure gradient will be present ahead of and
behind the low pressure system early this week. As a result,
gusty south to southwest winds, with highest gusts near 45 MPH,
today are anticipated for a couple of hours in the St. Lawrence
Valley and the Route 11 corridor. The timeframe of the highest
gusts is most likely from about 2 to 4 PM just ahead of the
rain begins to move into the area; winds will become more
southwesterly as opposed to south-southwesterly, deepening the
mixing as winds at 850 millibars increase into the 45 to 52 knot
range and momentum transfer suggests occasional gusts over 40
MPH will occur.

Behind the front, the flow will turn westerly with similar
magnitude in the 850 millibar winds, except more widespread
Monday night and favoring the typical areas downwind of the
Adirondack high peaks. Think the cold air advection does not
look particularly strong to favor deep mixing after sunrise, but
near that time and just afterwards, the jet depicted in some
model guidance is a bit worrisome for some sporadic power outage
potential. Have updated the HWO to suggest isolated outages
during the day on Tuesday as widespread west to northwesterly
winds start to mix down throughout northeastern New York and
Vermont. We`ll probably keep peak winds just below Advisory
level based on the current guidance, but with top of the mixed
layer winds pushing 45 knots and the downslope enhancements, but
have nudged maximum wind gusts a bit with values of 35 to 42
MPH. Strongest winds are indicated in much of western Clinton
County and portions of Essex County in New York, and much
central/eastern Vermont, especially southern Windsor County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 249 AM EST Monday...Winds will diminish substantially
tomorrow night as ridging builds in. Temperatures will be able
to cool below freezing in many valley locations following a
milder night on Monday, but the winds aloft may be sufficient to
limit the degree of cooling overnight. The next vigorous low
pressure system will come approach from the west on Wednesday,
spreading widespread rain into the region during the afternoon.
Unlike the Monday system, the surface low will be moving
eastward with a limited pressure gradient. So winds will not be
a concern. The main potential impact aside from widespread rain
will be possible high elevation snow. It is rather uncertain at
this time with a rain/snow mix largely indicated, so it`ll be
something to watch given decent precipitation amounts for an
event total (roughly 0.5") and possibility for the snow level to
fall low enough that some accumulations could work their way
into higher elevation towns and roads. While global ensemble
low pressure tracks are generally consistent in showing the
storm track east- southeastward near our region, they are not
agreeable with regards to the important details that cooler
(southern envelope) or warmer (northern envelope) of this track.
As such, taking the average track suggests snow levels will
rise on Wednesday such that any snow initially in the mountains
changes to rain, and then switches back to snow Wednesday night
(see discussion below).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 123 AM EST Monday...As mentioned last night, our area remains
in an active weather pattern in the late week time frame as the mean
core of the northern stream westerlies continue their seasonal
migration southward into the northern tier of the country. No less
than 3 discrete systems are on track to cross the region during the
period, the first coming Wed/Wed night, with the others swinging
through Friday/Friday night and again by next Sunday/Sunday night.
The general idea is to run with higher, 60-90% precipitation
probabilities with each system, the dominant p-type falling largely
as rain in the lower elevations. A mix of rains/wet snows at
elevation is more likely on the back side of these features,
especially Wednesday night and potentially by next Sunday night as
deeper meridional troughing digs across the eastern third of the
CONUS. Temperatures to remain seasonably cool through the period,
with diurnal variation somewhat tempered by an abundance of typical
November cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...South to southwesterly flow increases and
trends gusty today with approach/passage of a cold front later
this afternoon/evening. Ahead of the boundary, gusts into the
20-35 kt range expected, highest at KMSS. Some southwesterly
LLWS to from 35 to 45 kt likely at KSLK/KMSS for a few hours
this morning in advance of the gustier flow arriving at the
surface, and then more broadly west behind the boundary after
00Z Tuesday at selected terminals. Rain showers, with visibility
restrictions generally in the 3-6sm range to affect all
terminals in the 19-02Z time frame west to east as the front
swings through and cigs trend MVFR. Afterward, winds veer to
west/northwesterly over time as cigs generally remain a mix of
VFR/MVFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA, Likely SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of seasonally strong channeled south wind of about
25-30 knots sustained is expected on the broad lake and inland
sea this morning, with 20-25 knots more common in the afternoon
as mixing decreases. Waves during this period will tend to be 3
to 4 feet in these areas.

Behind a cold front, winds will once again increase tonight,
especially towards daybreak as they shift out of the west/
northwest when wind gusts will likely exceed 40 knots at times
in areas such as near Burlington Bay and Burton Island. The
associated wave heights will tend to be 2 to 3 feet with rough
conditions expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Kutikoff