421
FXUS61 KBTV 012337
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is expected to open
the month of September. A few scattered showers will be possible on
Tuesday, but better chances for more widespread rain will arrive
Thursday evening into Friday ahead of a large upper low. In addition
to wetting rain, breezy conditions will be possible Thursday and
Friday, especially in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 728 PM EDT Monday...Increased cloud cover for this evening
and overnight with skies nearly overcast; this will not promote
good viewing for the geomagnetic storm tonight. Otherwise,
adjusted dewpoints to better match observation trends which
could stay drier overnight since clouds will limit some
radiational cooling.

Previous Discussion...The remainder of this Labor Day weekend
will remain on the pleasant and comfortable side with
temperatures hovering just below normal; a picture perfect,
fall-like day. High clouds are beginning to move into the region
from the south as a decaying upper coastal low retrogrades to
the northwest. Unusual for this time of year, easterly cloud
streaks off the Atlantic fill the satellite this afternoon
across much of the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast from this system.
Clouds will continue to increase into this evening which may
limit the total radiative cooling potential tonight and overall
fog development. Patchy fog confidence is low, but higher in the
Connecticut River Valley and portions of the Adirondacks that
may see some clearing later tonight. Aside, temperatures tonight
will once again be on the cool side with lows in the low to mid
50s, and upper 40s in the Adirondacks. It will be a good night
to open any windows.

Tuesday will see the decaying coastal low subside and open overhead
which may spur some isolated to scattered showers, and
potentially a rumble of thunder, in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom. Forcing will be weak with CAPE values less
than 500 J/kg, so any thunder chances will be low, but non-zero.
Orographic lift enhancement and some lake-breeze interactions
will likely be the main driver for shower activity. Many
unfortunately will stay dry with drought conditions persisting
through mid week. Highs will be seasonable in the 70s to near 80
with lows once again falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Fog
potential looks to be higher Tuesday night in the
climatologically favored regions with more widespread clearing,
and under any locations that do see some shower activity from
earlier in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 126 PM EDT Monday...The decaying low will translate
eastward after opening up with the main impacts being some
increased cloud cover across the northern areas and perhaps an
isolated light shower in the High Peaks of the Adirondacks, and
especially in northeast Vermont. It`ll be another seasonable
day temperature-wise with highs in the mid to upper 70s to near
80. Winds will shift to the southwest over the course of the
day Wednesday as a moisture starved developing warm front lifts
to the northeast. Once in the warm sector Wednesday
afternoon/evening, winds will be a little more than the previous
day as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
system from the west. Channeled flow in the Champlain Valley may
lead to some gust enhancement Wednesday night. Wednesday night
temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than the night
prior, owning to southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...Latest ensemble and deterministic
data in good agreement with showing 2 to 4 std below normal
heights associated with anomalously deep mid/upper lvl trof acrs
the Great Lakes in the long term. Details on individual timing
of s/w`s and associated series of boundaries continues to show a
rather large spread, which makes pop forecast a challenge for
late week into the upcoming weekend. A period of gusty winds are
likely on Thurs/Thurs night ahead of initial boundary as 925mb
to 850mb winds strengthen btwn 30 and 45 knots and localized
sounding data supports favorable mixing profiles. Greatest
probability of wind gusts >30 mph will be acrs the SLV/CPV and
exposed ridges. Progged 925mb temps near 20C on Thurs ahead of
boundary should support highs upper 70s to mid 80s, before
precip spreads from west to east btwn 18z-06z Thurs night.
Environmental conditions show high shear/low CAPE parameters
which could support a broken line of low top showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms. As a series of boundaries move acrs the
region Friday into next weekend, additional threat for showers
are likely, especially acrs the higher trrn. Temps wl slowly
trend back below normal by late weekend into early next week
with a drying trend expected by early next week. Highs generally
in the upper 60s to mid 70s for Friday and Saturday, before
cooling back into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Sunday/Monday,
while lows are in the upper 40s to near 60s to start, but cool
back into the mid 30s to upper 40s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Ample high level clouds will preclude
widespread fog formation overnight, but low level moisture
should be ample enough at MPV/SLK to allow for some fog. EFK
also has some fog potential, but likely more limited in
thickness and duration. MPV has the best chance of dense fog and
lowest ceilings 08-12Z. Winds shift southerly in the morning
becoming westerly through the afternoon with an upper low
circulation dragging across the region. Lapse rates and daytime
surface instability will support some showers, especially over
higher terrain of the Adirondacks. There will be about a 30%
chance of a shower in the 18-24Z time frame for SLK/MSS/EFK with
15-20% at BTV/PBG/MPV.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Boyd