913
FXUS61 KBTV 010621
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
221 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

No changes to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Increasingly mild, breezy, and showery weather is expected
through Friday in advance of a cold front. Sharply drier and sunny
weather will return on Saturday.

2. Fluctuating temperatures next week with a few chances of
scattered showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Current surface analysis this morning shows a weak
shortwave continuing to push east across the region. Most radar
returns are not making it to the ground as a result of a decent
surface dry layer. That said, isentropic lift across the southern
tier of New York is leading to some light shower activity that
stretches back into the Great Lakes. As today progresses this
boundary will lift north encountering a dry sfc-700mb level which
will help reduce precipitation chances for the most part today.
Clouds will be the main change as cloud cover increases throughout
the day. A few isolated light showers and/or sprinkles in northern
New York, and some upslope mist and mountain top clouds will be
possible after noon today, but most locations today look to remain
dry. The main weather impacts today will be wind driven. A
tightening pressure gradient will allow for good southerly channeled
flow in the Champlain Valley and St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon
as a 40-50 knot LLJ in the 850-925mb layer builds across the region.
Gusts 20-30 MPH are expected late this morning into this evening
before more steadier rain arrives late tonight, stabilizing and
weakening our gusts. While current lake winds are just below Lake
Wind Advisory criteria (25 knots), a Lake Wind Advisory will likely
be needed for this afternoon and evening, when winds are expected to
increase. Southerly flow will also aid in advecting some warmer air
into the region, as highs increase into the upper 60s to low 70s
today.

Steadier rain will arrive overnight tonight as a cold front pushes
into the region from west to east. Moisture associated with this
front is reminiscent of a summer-like pattern, as this air mass
originates from the tropical east Pacific. PWs will increase to 1.5-
1.8" in the wider valleys of the area; in the 99th percentile for
this time of year. While PWs will be anomalously high, the
stretching the system, in addition to its progressive nature, will
help keep higher totals at bay. Ensembles continue to keep
probabilities of exceeding 1" at 10% or lower. Hi res model
guidance generally depicts a quarter to half an inch of rain for
much of northern New York, and near the International Border, with a
quarter or less in the western Champlain Valley and southern
Vermont, due to some shadowing effects. The winners from this system
will be across the northwestern upslope regions of the Adirondacks
and northern Greens where around three quarters of an inch is
expected. Given the high PWs, some downpours, and locally heavier
rainfall amounts will be possible in the aforementioned locations.

A secondary clearing cold front, depicted in the higher resolution
models looks to pass through Friday afternoon. Some additional
convergent flow and meager instability may allow for some additional
showers across southern Vermont, though these look isolated to
scattered at best. Dewpoints behind this second front will fall
from near 60 Friday afternoon, to the upper 30s to low 40s by
Saturday afternoon. Drying top down Friday night into Saturday
will clear the region of cloud cover with more sunny skies.
Temperatures will also follow suit, cooling from the mid 60s on
Friday to the upper 50s to near 60 by Saturday. More seasonable
temperatures will continue into the latter portion of the
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Closed low across Hudson-James Bay this weekend will
rotate a few shortwaves that will impact our area late weekend into
next week.

The first largely stays across Canada with an associated cold front
from the primary surface low well north in Canada moving across the
northern Great Lakes then northern NY-New England Sunday night but
immediately on its heels a larger, stronger and more amplified
shortwave drops SSE into the region on Monday with much colder air
and breezy conditions.

The initial front may bring a shower/two across the northern border
but then the front waits for the more robust system during Monday
with increased instability due to strong cold air advection aloft
for better chance of showers, especially terrain driven.

Continued cold air advection and cyclonic NW flow Monday night will
keep some clouds and gradient so not the coldest night.

Upper level shortwave ridging and surface high building into the
region Tue-Tue ngt will bring the coldest air of this young season
with frost-freeze likely everywhere except immediately along Lake
Champlain. Tuesday morning lows will be in the 20s-30s with highs in
the 50s with some upper 40s as well.

Ridging at all levels exits Wednesday with return flow and
moderating temperatures and a chance of showers Wed ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly high clouds across the region with
calm/lgt surface winds and decent low level moisture. However,
soundings show decent wind above the deck and this should
prevent fog across NY and west of the Green Mountains. KMPV went
to IFR due to Vsby and CIG but expect Vsby to improve as
gradient shifts east yet stratus deck may linger so IFR-MVFR
there through daybreak.

Light southerly winds increase and become more southwesterly in
some spots with wind speeds 7 to 13 knots sustained with gusts
16 to 22 knots. As winds start subsiding around 20-21z, LLWS
will be possible, mainly over KMSS and KSLK then spread east
beyond 00z Friday. Additionally, some isolated rain showers may
reach Adirondacks in the 16-20z timeframe.

Main shower activity with potential MVFR conditions enter KMSS
around 00z with KSLK around 04z and after 06z Fri east.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...SLW/Danzig
AVIATION...SLW