248
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1023 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The steady rain exits tonight, but showers will linger for part
ofSunday, particularly in northern and upslope areas. A drying
and warming trend will occur during the first part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1018 PM EDT Saturday...Nearly stationary low pressure
system centered near central Maine has kept light rain
continuing across our area. Models have this low very slowly
meander northeastward and away from the area. As it does so,
precipitation will wind down and become more showery overnight.
Minimum temperatures will dip into the upper 30s to upper 40s.
No big changes for the evening update, mainly adjusted pops to
reflect current radar trends, no further chance for thunder.
Previous discussion follows.

A nor`easter continues to rotate across southern New England
with the center of the low initialized across southeastern New
Hampshire. Additionally a trough/cold front across the Champlain
Valley has phased with the low which has resulted in a
deformation axis across the Champlain Valley. Rainfall rates
between 0.25-0.5" have been observed in this band. Some clearing
across southern New Hampshire has allowed enough instability to
develop leading to some thunderstorms. Given where the
stratiform cloud deck edge is, which is essentially the border
of Vermont and New Hampshire, instability development across our
area is decreasing. Any thunderstorm chances reside in the
Northeast Kingdom over the next hour or 2 before the cold pool
under the stratiform rain erodes any instability that remains.
Total rainfall so far range from two-tenths across northern New
York to 0.5-2+" from north to south in Vermont. Additional
rainfall between 0.25-0.75" generally will fall across Vermont
as the deformation band slides to the east, but weakens.
Northwest winds under the band are gusting to near 30 mph in the
Champlain Valley in the higher terrain. Driven by an unusually
strong surface and 850mb low pressure, a low level jet
accompanying the trough is mixing efficiently to the surface.
These winds will continue through tomorrow as the low exits
northeastward. Temperatures will be just below seasonable levels
for the remainder of the day with values currently in the mid
50s and falling into the low to mid 40s overnight.

Cyclonic flow will continue tomorrow as an upper low in
northern Quebec rotates a few weak shortwaves through the
region. Drizzle and light rain, particularly near the
international border, will continue through the day. Not as much
as a washout as today, but still on the wetter side with clouds
and cooler air. The morning looks drier than the afternoon with
shower chances increasing beyond noon. Locations in southern
Vermont and in the Connecticut Valley may remain mostly dry due
to downsloping and being farther south away from the stronger
dynamics. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 50s to low
60s with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 PM EDT Saturday...A shortwave trough axis will be
exiting the forecast area on Monday with main core of low
pressure to our north in Canada. This, combined with some modest
leftover moisture, will linger about 20- 45% chance of showers
across the region Monday morning, particularly across the
Northeast Kingdom and international border where the most
moisture is leftover from the Sunday night period. That being
said, it still looks like isolated coverage of showers likely
with moisture being so limited. Most of the day will see mainly
sunny skies and some moderately breezy winds out of the west and
northwest. This will allow temperatures to rise into a
seasonable mid 60s to lower 70s for most. We`ll do away with
precipitation chances overnight and could have some mostly clear
skies for much of Monday night as ridging builds into the
region. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s, slightly
chilly for this time of year. Valley fog may develop under
these favorable radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 309 PM EDT Saturday...Mid and upper level ridge is
anticipated to build across the region for the first half of the
week, resulting in warm air advection and temperatures soaring
into the upper 70s and 80s each afternoon and lows only dropping
as low as the mid 50s to 60s. Temperatures at the 925mb level
are being modeled at about 21-23 C on Wednesday, set to be the
hottest day of the week.

Late week, we`ll see a frontal boundary move across the
forecast area as attached low pressure remains to the north in
Canada. The boundary appears to stall across the Northeast for
the rest of the week, and showery conditions should ensue as it
sits parallel to upper level flow. Confidence increases as
deterministic models come into alignment on location and timing
of this system. Highest PoPs are for Thursday and Friday
afternoons when preceding hot conditions will be ripe to power
thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are modeled near two
inches in some spots, potentially resulting in heavy downpours
from this system. This will nudge temperatures back downwards
during the daytime with highs in the 70s again by the weekend.
Lows, however, could remain in the mid 50s to 60s for the entire
long term period due to increased cloud coverage at night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...IFR, MVFR and VFR conditions exist across
the area as light rain continues. Conditions should slowly
improve overnight, especially visibilities as rain winds down.
Winds continue to be gusty at BTV, PBG and MPV. Winds will also
let up overnight. Moderate rain will taper to more drizzle and
light rain showers beyond 03Z from west to east as the front in
the St. Lawrence Valley pushes the low east.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A nor`easter over the region is producing light to moderate
rainfall with rates generally 0.25-0.5". Total rainfall over the
area ranges from 0.25-2+" from north to south, with higher
amounts in Windsor county and across the spine of the Greens.
Additional rainfall expected ranges from 0.25-0.75" with higher
amounts possible in the higher terrain and under any
thunderstorms that may develop, particularly in the Northeast
Kingdom. No flood concerns have developed so far and we are not
expecting any flash flooding concerns going forward given 3 and
6-hour FFGs near 2" and 2.5", respectively. Area waterways have
seen sharp rises from the rainfall with most rivers expected to
reach bankfull. We are not forecasting any rivers to reach flood
stage at this time. Specific basins that have seen the highest
rainfall amounts and we are watching include the Missisquoi and
Otter Creek, as well as the Mad river based on prior events. Its
important to remember to turn around, don`t drown when
approaching flooded roadways. Moreover, be weather aware and
check our forecast for additional updates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With the approaching system, a few sites may see record daily
rainfall amounts.

Record Daily Precipitation:

May 31:
BTV: 1.34/1998
MPV: 0.99/1992

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles
HYDROLOGY...BTV Team
CLIMATE...BTV Team