120
FXUS61 KBTV 151835
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...

Weekend forecast trending drier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Dry and seasonable before a few showers Thursday.

2. Chances for showers decreasing this weekend, but remaining
seasonable cool.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure is shifting off to the
east, and return southerly flow has developed. Winds will
increase this afternoon and gusts in the 10-20 mph range are
expected heading into the evening. A dying cold front will push
down from the north overnight and bring the chance of a couple
showers. However, weak forcing and dry air in the low levels
should cause most of this to fall as virga, though a few
sprinkles are expected in northern areas. Dry and warm weather
will return for Wednesday with highs in the 70s to around 80. An
area of rain will attempt to move into the region on Thursday
into Thursday night as isentropic lift occurs on a warm front.
EPS ensemble members generally favor a wetter solution and a
farther north front, while GEFS and CMCE members generally keep
the rain to the south. Models have shifted into a bit more of an
agreement where it looks like at least southern Vermont should
see a few showers, but the northward extent remains uncertain.
However, any precipitation would be light and stratiform, with
the wet EPS probabilities of a half inch of rain generally
ranging between 20-30 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a washed out cold front by the end of the work
week, trends have continued to move towards the ECMWF solution
keeping most, if not all, precipitation south of the area Saturday
night and Sunday. The baroclinic zone responsible for the area of
potential showers will be draped more over central and southern New
York with better forcing southwest of our region. That said, model
solutions Sunday afternoon into Monday denote a subtle redevelopment
of a surface low off the southern New England coast which could
bring some light shower chances to southern Vermont. All in all, our
shower chances this weekend are trending lower. Our flow pattern
will remain confluent into next week with zonal flow aloft with
generally dry conditions towards next week. Model solutions begin to
vary by early next week in terms of precipitation chances. An upper
level high over the Great Lakes will set up a dry corridor from the
Great Lakes into northern New England, while a moisture axis over
the Mid Atlantic attempts to push north. Model uncertainty in how
much dry air there is will determine if moisture and associated
shower potential are able to penetrate northward into our region, or
if dry subsident air keeps our shower chances shunted to the south.
Regardless, zonal northwesterly flow will keep our temperatures
through the weekend into early next week on the seasonably cool side
with highs fairly consistent in the mid to upper 60s, and lows in
the low to mid 40s, with some cold hollows hovering about the upper
30s. Sky conditions favor mainly cloudy conditions through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
terminals through at least the next 18 hours. A weak frontal system
is approaching from the west with gradually lowering ceilings.
Current ceilings between 10000-15000 will gradually lower through
the next 12 hours towards 5000ft agl. Any current radar returns
upstream appear to be mainly virga or P6SM -SHRA, and non-impactful.
Have mentioned a PROB30 group for when a weak cold front will pass
through the northern terminals overnight, but even then showers will
be isolated and confidence in any showers at a particular terminal
are low. Winds through the rest of the day will remain southerly
around 10 knots for most terminals, RUT may remain sub 10 knots
through the entire period. Channeled flow will bring isolated gusts
between 15-20 knots at BTV through sunset, before an brief inversion
will relax any gusts between 00-06Z. A few gusts may be possible
overnight tonight between 06-12Z as well at BTV as a weak low-level
jet shifts east. This LLJ will also lead to some weak LLWS at
SLK/MSS with a brief period of 40 knots at 2000ft agl between 05-08Z
at SLK, and 03-06Z at MSS. Fog potential tonight looks unlikely with
widespread cloud cover and modest flow aloft. Broken clouds to
3000-5000ft agl will be the theme through tomorrow morning as winds
trend westerly by 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Channeled southerly flow will continue to increase this
afternoon and evening. They should ramp up on the broad waters
into the 20 to 25 knot range by late afternoon, and near 20
knots over the northern waters. As a result, waves will markedly
increase into the 1 to 3 feet range by this evening. During the
evening, they will likely reach the 3 to 4 feet range in the
vicinity of Colchester Reef and 2 to 3 foot range in the Inland
Sea as winds will likely peak in intensity. Elevated south winds
will likely persist into Wednesday morning before sharply
diminishing by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Myskowski
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...NWS BTV