


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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545 FXUS61 KBTV 171824 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 224 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... One more chilly night will give way to a warming trend through the weekend, featuring late-summerlike temperatures on Sunday along with breezy conditions. Widespread rain Sunday night into Monday will follow, along with a return to cooler and cloudier conditions. Most of the showers next week will be light with little impact on ongoing drought conditions, but fire weather concerns will be limited. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 224 PM EDT Friday...Quiet weather continues through the period. A new (and final for the season) Frost Advisory has been issued for the Champlain Valley following a night in which temperatures fell into the low to mid 30s, largely similar lows are expected tonight. That being said, a little bit of uncertainty exists due to presence of high altitude clouds that are evident already on satellite imagery, especially as one goes westward. Think the HREF cloud product is capturing these observations well, which would suggest that a period of thicker clouds early in the night may be transient enough and/or thin out enough that much of the Champlain Valley still sees temperatures cool enough for frost formation. Generally this pattern will support coldest conditions in central/eastern Vermont tonight, with less cold conditions in northern New York compared to last night. Saturday into Saturday night light winds will gradually ramp up as southerly flow increases with incoming pressure falls and high pressure exiting to the east. A large area of showers currently upstream in eastern Ontario will fall apart as it enters northern New York early in the morning, with additional virga or brief, light showers possible falling out of high clouds during the afternoon when mid-altitude moisture is expected to increase. Aside from this cloudiness moving across the area, pleasant conditions are expected with above normal temperatures in the low to mid 60s common, and with limited cooling overnight due to cloud cover and breeziness, lows Saturday night will largely be in the upper 30s to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 222 PM EDT Friday...The beginning of a much stormier period of weather is expected for Sunday. We will be firmly in the warm and windy part of a large incoming low pressure system from the west. Temperatures will surge well above normal, becoming easily the warmest day of the upcoming week. While none of the data is off the charts in terms of extremes, a few items to note. The St. Lawrence Valley will see some of the most impressive warmth associated with topographical effects as shallow southeasterly winds will be present below a southwesterly jet. Temperatures should approach daily records and 80 degrees (greater than 30% chance) locally in this region, or typical late August conditions. Elsewhere, high temperatures will tend to be typical for mid-September in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With regards to wind gust magnitude, the Champlain Valley will be set up very well to see the strongest winds with some gusts easily 30-35 MPH based on pattern recognition and model forecast soundings, although some of the latest data is tamer than previous runs. Ideal channeling with low inversion heights looks reasonable throughout the daytime hours; in fact, by daybreak Lake Wind Advisory criteria on the broad waters is expected. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights winds in the western valley along Lake Champlain in particular. Generally gusts exceeding 25 MPH during the day across our region are very likely (most locations aside from the Upper Valley are at least 80%). With the trend towards a more southeasterly low level wind, have boosted maximum wind gusts in the northern/western Adirondacks. As an example, in Malone during the early evening modeled winds between 45 and 50 MPH descend to below 3000 feet above ground level, leading to increased potential for a couple stronger gusts pushing 40 MPH at the surface. That being said, typical uncertainties in terms of how much of the strong winds aloft will mix to the surface in a large scale warm air advection pattern, especially after sunset. By late in the day, showers will be approaching northern New York with only up to a 50% chance of rain by 8 PM in far western areas. Thereafter, Sunday night will become wet across New York and much of Vermont, with lowest chances of rain in the Northeast Kingdom (although still greater than 50%). Because the incoming trough is expected to become negatively tilted, a band of widespread showers will tend to become oriented from northwest to southeast such that northeastern Vermont could indeed see little rainfall through this period. Have also noted timing differences continue amongst model guidance, with most deterministic guidance trending towards a slower arrival of rain that has been favored by EAGLE (Experimental AI Global and Limited-area Ensemble forecast system). Would expect much of the rain will be a Monday event for much of the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 147 PM EDT Friday...A cold front slows down over the region during the day on Monday and a surface low develops along it. It should cause a period of steady to heavy rain on Monday. While a few convective elements are possible, there should not be enough instability for thunder. While there will be widespread rain, a dry slot looks to develop as the low strengthens so there will be breaks. A brief period of ridging will try to build in for Tuesday and it should keep the day mostly dry. An upper level low enters the region for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing widespread showers, particularly in the upslope areas. It will be accompanied by colder temperatures aloft and the highest summits look to fall to around and slightly below freezing, so a few snow showers up there are looking increasing likely. General troughiness looks to continue into the weekend so it will likely be a cloudy and more unsettled stretch. As a positive, the dreary conditions will mostly prevent fire weather concerns, though precipitation totals do not look to be high enough to cause much of a dent in the drought. Through most of next weekend, the GEFS/EPS/CAN combined ensemble probabilities of seeing more than 1.5 inches of rain are less than 50 percent, so while there will be plenty of showers, totals will not be overly high. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be northerly today, with gusts up to around 10 KTs. Winds will generally go light and terrain driven tonight. Winds become southerly tomorrow, but generally stay around and under 10 KTs. A few gusts in the 10-15 KT range are possible at BTV and PBG. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR. Likely SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX is out of service. Technicians have identified a hardware failure and have ordered replacement parts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ001-002-005-009. NY...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Myskowski EQUIPMENT...BTV