822
FXUS61 KBTV 211120
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 228 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry before showers return late tomorrow and Sunday.

2. A few lingering showers north on Tuesday, then dry
conditions Wednesday before scattered showers return later Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and relatively seasonable conditions will continue
today with low humidity. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s and
lows will be in the 40s and 50s away from Lake Champlain. A primary
area of low pressure will develop over the Great Lakes tomorrow and
a secondary low will form off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The primary
will track northeast into Quebec, while the low off the Mid-Atlantic
looks to travel up the eastern seaboard. The idea is that these two
lows should eventually phase over Quebec, past our region. Showers
are likely tomorrow night over northern New York from the primary
low, and these will gradually track eastward. Showers are possible
late Saturday into Saturday night in southern areas from the
secondary low, but whether these can reach the region or stay south
remains uncertain. Some showers are expected region-wide on Sunday
as the parent low passes east. While a couple rumbles of thunder are
possible during the day, instability will be very low due to a lack
of consistent sunshine and a cooler airmass. Forecast rainfall
amounts have trended down. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of a
half inch of rain are now between 0-40 percent, with the lowest
values over central and northern Vermont which look to get
sandwiched between the two lows. Probabilities of an inch are now
below 10 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2: No large-scale changes in thinking have occurred over
the past 24 hours as model solutions remain in broad agreement on
the overall synoptic wx pattern for the middle to later portions of
next week. Big picture shows the base of the aforementioned upper
trough atop our region Tuesday morning, which pulls out to the north
and east over time by later in the day. A few showers will still be
possible across the north during this period, mainly across the
higher terrain, but many hours of dry wx are also expected. High
pressure and associated sunny/dry wx make a return visit on
Wednesday before additional troughing enters the picture by later
Thursday into Friday with additional shower chances. Temperatures on
Tuesday to run about 5 degrees below climo-average late August norms
before moderating to near normal from Wednesday onward. Winds
generally light through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Patchy IFR BR/FG lifts at KRUT/KEFK/KMPV
in the 12-14Z time frame, otherwise, VFR/SKC expected at all
terminals through 00Z under light winds less than 10 kts. After
05Z, SKC/light winds continues with patchy LIFR BR/FG likely to
return to KMPV/KEFK.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/JMG
AVIATION...JMG