356
FXUS61 KBTV 170147
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
947 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures and humidity increase this week with conditions
becoming uncomfortable by mid week. Otherwise, daily afternoon
shower chances are expected with the risk of thunderstorms
increasing each afternoon. The highest chances for thunderstorms
will be Wednesday and Thursday. A few storms may be strong,
especially on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 945 PM EDT Monday...Temperatures are gradually cooling
off, but will not radiate as it has the last several evenings
with increasing cloud cover and light south to southwest winds.
A few pinprick showers are popping up along Route 11 in St.
Lawrence Count. These will not produce much given little
instability and forcing. Previous discussion below...

A few showers are expected to bubble up this afternoon,
particularly on the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and into
portions of the St Lawrence Valley. Any showers that do develop
will be few and far between though, and much of the area will
remain dry this evening. However, moisture will start to
increase overnight and into Tuesday as the ridge starts to shift
eastward and south flow strengthens. The main impacts of this
overnight will be increasing cloud cover. We start our trend
toward uncomfortable nights tonight, with lows generally in the
mid 50s to mid 60s, though the far Northeast Kingdom may be able
to dip down into the 40s.

Shower chances will increase during the day Tuesday as moisture
continues to lift over a nearly stationary boundary draped just to
our south. The most widespread shower activity will be across
central and southern VT, closer to the boundary. But better chances
for a few thunderstorms will be along the international border,
particularly in northern NY, as an upper trough approaches from the
west.

High temperatures for tomorrow are a touch tricky. A weak low
pressure and the retreating high will allow low-level flow to trend
a bit more easterly during the afternoon, mainly east of the Greens.
This will bring some maritime influence, and the cool, moist air
will help keep temperatures quite cool for mid June. Have lowered
expected highs several degrees in eastern VT, and less so from the
Champlain Valley westward as flow should remain more southerly
there. Highs will mainly be in the mid 70s to around 80F, while
eastern VT should stay in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Showers will linger into Tuesday night, again remaining mostly
focused over central/southern areas closer to the boundary. It`ll be
an even more muggy night than tonight, with lows remaining in the
60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 316 PM EDT Monday...Another day of warming temperatures and
increasing humidity can be expected for Wednesday as an upper level
trough gradually approaches the region. High temperatures look to
warm into the low to mid 80s across the region, with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s making it quite muggy. A few showers will be
possible throughout the day on Wednesday, with plenty of moisture
and instability available, although a lack of forcing and weak shear
will help limit any thunderstorm development. Any thunderstorms and
showers that do develop will likely feature periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall given abundant moisture, with PWAT values in excess
of an inch. Surface winds will also be light, which could lead to
slow-moving storms and enhance rainfall amounts. The warm and humid
conditions will continue overnight Wednesday, with overnight lows
only dropping into the 60s, with parts of the Champlain Valley
hardly dropping below 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Monday...A period of active weather is in store for
the region on Thursday as an upper level trough and associated cold
front approach the region. Another warm day can be expected across
the region, with high temperatures once again in the 80s. With all
of the heat and moisture, as well as a favorable position of the
upper level trough, plenty of instability and thunderstorm
development looks likely for Thursday. With PWAT values near or in
excess of 1.5 inches on Thursday, plenty of heavy rain can be
expected within any convection, with WPC maintaining the region in a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Behind the cold front,
conditions will trend more comfortable with decreased humidity and
more seasonable temperatures for Friday into the weekend. Highs on
Friday look to be in 70s, with a period of drier weather expected
for Saturday. Looking ahead, strong ridging looks to build in for
the start of next week, with another period of unseasonably warm
temperatures possible.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions should persist for much of
the night. Ceilings will gradually lower and they are expected to
fall into the MVFR range in places during the day tomorrow, though
it will likley to take until tomorrow night for any more significant
drops to occur. The one exception could be MPV where Atlantic
moisture could bring ceilings into the low MVFR or IFR range by late
tomorrow. There will be a couple showers around during the day
tomorrow but nothing looks heavy enough to cause significant
visibility reductions. Winds will be southerly and southeasterly for
much of the period, generally in the 5-10 KT range.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Myskowski