532
FXUS61 KBTV 141820
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
220 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dreary weather will persist through the rest of today as low
pressure pulls away from our region. Cool, breezy, and dry
conditions will prevail through much of the remainder of the week.
We trend warmer for the weekend, with our next chance for widespread
rain not arriving until early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...Damp and dreary conditions have been slow
to move out this afternoon. Radar still shows scattered light rain
showers, and we`re seeing patchy fog and drizzle per surface
observations and webcams. Expect this will be the trend through the
rest of today. Note there`s clearing ahead of our incoming cold
front, which is slowly approaching the St Lawrence Valley at this
hour. Guidance indicates this clearing will push across our region
during the evening hours, with clouds increasing as the front pushes
through. Not entirely convinced that we`ll see much in the way of
clearing, as patchy fog could quickly develop due to light winds and
plentiful lingering low level moisture. Either way, any fog should
clear out as the front moves through and winds increase due to cold
air advection and mixing. Moisture looks to become trapped below the
subsidence inversion though, so we`ll see cloudy conditions return
late tonight. There could be a few showers accompanying the front
over the northern mountains, but given the shallow moisture, drizzle
and/or light riming is more likely. Lows will drop into the 30s in
the higher terrain, but the wider valleys will remain in the upper
30s to mid 40s, limiting frost in those areas where the growing
season is considered to still be ongoing.

Wednesday will be chilly under cold air advection. We`ll remain
between high pressure to our west and low pressure to our east,
resulting in brisk north to northwest winds. An upper trough will
pivot across eastern Maine, keeping clouds around much of the region
through at least the first part of the day. The St Lawrence Valley
and Adirondacks may see a bit more sunshine during the afternoon,
but expect much of northern and eastern VT to remain cloudy. Highs
will only top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s, about 5 degrees
colder than normal. Wednesday night will likewise be chilly,
especially in the mountains where lows will be in the 20s to around
30F. In the Champlain Valley, lows will drop into the mid and upper
30s, but there will be enough wind to limit frost formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday will be another chilly and breezy
day as high pressure continues to slowly build eastward from the
Great Lakes. While temperatures will once again only top out in the
upper 40s to mid 50s, drier air will have a firmer hold, bringing
relative humidity values down to 30 to 40 percent. With
north/northwest winds expected to gust 20 to 30 mph, we`ll have near
critical fire weather. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny
skies, with northern/eastern VT to see the most cloud cover. Winds
will subside a bit after sunset, though they may be just enough to
once again limit frost potential. Still, it`ll be a cold night with
lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest close to Lake Champlain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging remains over the weekend and it
will keep the region mostly dry. While a scattered shower cannot be
ruled out over far northern areas, the rain will mostly stay over
Quebec. Radiational cooling conditions should be somewhat favorable
Friday night, and with a colder airmass in place, widespread frosts
and freezes are possible. As the center of the surface high pushes
off to the east over the weekend, temperatures will respond quickly
and they will make a run at seventy in places on Sunday. A deep
trough builds into the region for the beginning of next week and it
looks to bring the cooler and showery pattern back. An initial cold
front should move through sometime in the Sunday night timeframe. A
surface low may develop along it and continue the steadier rain into
Monday. Regardless, with the upper low moving into the region, there
should still be some showery conditions. There remains a large
amount of uncertainty on how this low progresses, with the potential
for it to become a cutoff low or pass out of the region quickly
moving into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Low ceilings currently predominate and
ceilings will only rise slightly this afternoon. While most
terminals will trend toward MVFR by evening, that will likely not be
the case at SLK and EFK. Areas of mist and drizzle reducing
visibilities should gradually exit the terminals and visibilities
should rise above six miles for most places by evening. However, if
the low clouds manage to briefly clear at any of the terminals
except MSS, fog could form until the clouds move back in. A cold
front moves through around and just after midnight. It will change
winds from generally light and variable to northerly, and drier air
behind it will cause ceilings to rise into the MVFR and VFR range.
Visibilities will be VFR at all terminals behind the front. Winds
will increase during the day tomorrow, with the strongest gusts
expected at BTV and PBG. At those terminals, gusts in the 20-25 KT
range are expected, while they should reach the 10 to 20 KT range
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski