688
FXUS61 KBTV 071711
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
111 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler weather will prevail for much of the week as high
pressure becomes well established across the region. Nights could
feature patchy valley fog and even some frost in the cold hollows of
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. The next widespread rain
chance does not look to occur until after next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 111 PM EDT Sunday...Lingering showers will exit the region this
evening, ushering in dry weather through Monday as surface high
pressure and weak upper level ridging builds in. Clearing skies will
allow temperatures to fall into the mid 30s and 40s tonight (several
degrees below seasonal averages), and locations that received rain
today are most likely to have some patchy radiation fog develop. An
upper level shortwave will likely keep westerly flow just above the
surface going enough to prevent a widespread dense valley fog event
tonight, but some areas could also see some passing thick low
clouds. Tomorrow will be quiet, cool, and dry directly under surface
high pressure with temperatures rising into the 60s and lower 70s
under a mainly sunny sky and a light westerly breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 111 PM EDT Sunday...With surface high pressure directly
overhead Monday night, clear skies and calm winds will work together
to create conditions favorable for radiational cooling. Guidance
suggests that lows could reach as low as the 30s to mid 40s with
frost possible in the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and the
Northeast Kingdom. Patchy fog is also not out of the question in the
typical valley spots of Vermont, though any thicker fog development
could shelter spots from receiving frost.

Tuesday will be a seasonable, dry, quiet day with highs in the lower
and mid 70s, light but increasing southerly flow, and a sunny sky.
Winds on Lake Champlain are expected to gust up to 10-15 knots. This
southerly flow will help increase clouds slightly Tuesday night, and
temperatures won`t be quite as cool that night in the upper 30s to
lower 50s while the core of high pressure shifts northeastward. Once
again, under the influence of the high pressure, valley radiation
fog is possible, particularly along the Connecticut River of Vermont
and New Hampshire, but the increased southerly winds will keep it
fairly isolated. Winds on Lake Champlain could gust up to about 15-
20 knots.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 111 PM EDT Sunday...The prolonged period of quiet weather will
continue right through the last half of the week as high pressure
dominates the region`s weather. A cold front will sink southward out
of Canada and through New England/NY on Thursday, but with little in
the way of moisture, don`t expect much more than a wind shift and
increased cloud cover as it moves through. We`ll get a reinforcing
shot of cool, dry air behind the front, which will lead to some
chilly nights for late week. Note that the latest NBM indicates
50-80% probability of lows dropping below 36F both Thursday and
Friday nights in our usual cold prone spots in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom. Anyone that still has sensitive outdoor plans
should monitor trends closely as we head through the week. Daytime
highs will be somewhat variable, warmest mid week ahead of the cold
front, then dropping into just the 60s on Friday, with a bit of a
warming trend for the weekend. Precipitation chances are pretty much
nil through the entire extended period, but an upper trough swinging
overhead may bring a few showers later Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions expected to generally prevail
through much of the period. Scattered showers are currently pushing
eastward this afternoon, and should affect KSLK/KPBG/KBTV/KEFK
through 22z. Brief gusty winds to around 20 kt, reduced visibility
to 4-6SM, and BKN MVFR ceilings will be possible in any showers, but
coverage was not enough to warrant anything beyond PRO30 in the TAFs
at this time. Skies clear and showers end by 00z all terminals.
Concern then becomes IFR/LIFR in valley fog. Don`t anticipate it to
be as extensive as last night, especially in VT where winds will
remain a little more elevated just above ground level. Have more
confidence at KSLK as high pressure will allow winds to start to
subside late tonight. Have included TEMPO groups for IFR conditions
at KSLK/KMPV/KEFK 08z-12z, with LIFR/VLIFR most likely at KSLK. Any
fog dissipates by 12z or shortly thereafter, with VFR to prevail
with FEW-SCT clouds expected. Winds generally light southwest/west
until 00z, except SE at KPBG due to a lake breeze. Winds light and
variable and terrain driven after 00z, then increasing a bit to
around 5 kt after 12z Mon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings