208
FXUS61 KBTV 161858
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
258 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk northerly flow will gradually diminish through Friday as
a narrow ridge of high pressure noses in from the west; areas of
frost are expected where winds slacken. Winds will turn
southerly on Saturday and become gusty on Sunday ahead a
stronger variety low pressure system that will bring widespread
rain by Monday. A stormier weather pattern generally is expected
next week with periodic showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 258 PM EDT Thursday...Quiet and cool weather will be the
story through the period with chances for frost given mainly
clear skies and diminishing winds. With the Freeze/Frost program
winding down due to climatology, a Frost Advisory continues for
tonight only in the Champlain Valley, with another one likely
needed for tomorrow night. Localized sub-freezing temperatures
are possible within sheltered locations, but especially tonight
the northerly winds prevalent will help slow cooling a bit. Have
noted low chances for frost in the immediate Lake Champlain
area, such as over Grand Isle County, but have let the Advisory
ride with this forecast.

Otherwise, modest north winds will continue on Friday, generally
higher in Vermont than in New York with high pressure building
in from the west. A lot of mid and high level cloud cover out
ahead of a large low pressure system and its associated warm
front will stunt the cooling after midnight especially Friday
night in what otherwise could have been a colder night
considering the light winds and dry air in place. Generally
temperatures will remain only a little below normal, dropping
into the mid 20s to mid 30s following highs in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 258 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday is clearly the pick of the
week with regards to comfortable weather and light winds as
temperatures should be several degrees warmer than Friday per
much higher 850 millibar temperatures with ridging sliding
across Vermont and northern New York during the day. High
altitude clouds will stunt warming slightly, but very dry low
level air is noted in forecast soundings. Would not be surprised
if relative humidity drops even lower than currently indicated,
but light winds will reduce fire weather concerns compared to
Sunday (see fire weather section of AFD below for more). Have
maintained some slight chances of showers in the immediate St.
Lawrence Valley, expanding eastward into much of New York, late
in this period as brief light showers, but more likely virga,
will be possible as clouds thicken. Thicker clouds and milder
air will keep temperatures much higher Saturday night than
recent nights, above freezing areawide.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 152 PM EDT Thursday...A strong southerly low level jet
moves over the region during the day Sunday, bringing gusty
winds. Most areas should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range,
but gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the Champlain Valley due
to channeling and in the northern Adirondacks due to
downsloping. A strong cold front moves through Sunday night into
Monday and it will bring a line of showers. While some embedded
convection is possible, thunder looks very unlikely due to a
lack of meaningful instability. The rain will likely linger into
Monday as a low develops along the front and moves through the
region. Precipitation amounts have been trending up. 48 hour
probabilities from the NBM of seeing more than an inch of rain
are generally between 25 to 50 percent. A partial break in the
precipitation looks to occur on Tuesday before an upper level
low digs into the region for Wednesday. With ensemble averaged
850 mb temperatures forecast to drop to around freezing, there
could be a few snow showers in the highest peaks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours.
Winds will be strong and northerly today. Most places will see
gusts between 10 to 20 KTs, though there will be a few stronger
gusts at times. BTV and PBG could see a few gusts up to 30 KTs.
Winds will gradually diminish tonight and they should be light
and variable in most places by late in the night. Winds will
increase again out of the northwest tomorrow, but they should
generally stay around and under 10 KTs.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will continue through early evening with
maximum northerly wind gusts 25 to 30 mph in parts of Vermont
and northeastern New York. While relative humidity values will
only be 35-45%, fire weather concerns and fire spread will be
heightened. Following a period of diminishing winds through
Saturday, Sunday will see gusty to strong southerly winds,
bringing enhanced fire weather concerns following several dry
days.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues for Lake Champlain through this
evening. Northerly winds are leading to channeling effects on
Lake Champlain enhancing wind and wave conditions, although
strongest winds have likely occurred this morning. Periodic
surges of wind in the southern waters occur when winds shift
slightly east of due north, where sustained winds could continue
to exceed 25 knots through early evening. Winds on the broad
lake should be more consistently 15 to 25 knots, but tend to
diminish tonight; relatedly, waves have built up into the 3 to
4 foot range and will tend to subside to 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX is out of service. Technicians are diagnosing the issue
with no estimated return to service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski
FIRE WEATHER...Kutikoff
MARINE...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Kutikoff