316
FXUS61 KBTV 312324
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is expected to open
the month of September. A few scattered showers will be possible on
Tuesday, but broader precipitation will likely arrive Thursday
evening into Friday ahead of a large upper low. In addition to
wetting rain, breezy conditions will be possible. Towards the start
of next week, temperatures will become cooler once more with showery
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 143 PM EDT Sunday...Not much to note in the near term, except
for just how perfect it`ll be with seasonable to slightly above
normal temperatures during the day alongside abundant sunshine
through Monday. Anticipate valley fog while we`re in the prime of
our fog season with cool conditions in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 143 PM EDT Sunday...On Tuesday, a broad upper level gyre will
angle northwestwards while surface low pressure will develop well
offshore. The upper low will advect high level moisture northwest
over the area, followed by a pocket of clearing with easterly
maritime air cycling in sufficient, but marginal, mid-level moisture
for convection. With the cold core of an upper low overhead and
a gradient with cloud cover from surrounding regions, we should
be near the regional maximum in instability on the order of
300-600 J/kg as we warm into the mid 70s to around 80 F.
Isolated to scattered showers will develop across the region on
Tuesday, and then diminish after sunset. Clearing overnight with
surface high pressure will allow us to continue to observe mid
40s to mid 50s at night with river fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 143 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will bring mostly clear skies and
near normal temperatures. Clouds start to build in Wednesday evening
in advance of a deep 500mb low moving in from the Great Lakes. Winds
will pick up Thursday in advance of the cold front with temperatures
remaining in the upper 70s/ low 80s. The front could bring rain into
the CWA as early as Thursday afternoon, but considerable
disagreement remains among ensemble (and deterministic!) models on
the timing of the front and associated precipitation. The GEFS
favors a quicker solution, with rain hitting the Saint Lawrence
Valley as early as Thursday afternoon. The ENS system is about 12
hours slower, with rain holding off until Friday morning. The slower
European solution also provides for more overall QPF. The broad
ensemble guidance suggests about a 50% chance of widespread half
inch.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Overall, VFR conditions with light winds
will be seen through the forecast period. A period of IFR to
LIFR fog is expected at KSLK, KMPV, KEFK and possibly at KMSS
between 6Z and 12Z. Thereafter, clear skies will likely continue
through midday before high clouds begin to stream into the
region.

&&

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Clay