567
FXUS61 KBTV 191112
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
712 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 221 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 221 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Some showers today before seasonable and dry weather into
the weekend

2. Showers and thunderstorms likely Sunday and possibly into
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 221 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A dying cold front moves into the region today, bringing
some showers. An area of rain will enter northern New York this
morning, mostly being driven off the synoptic forcing. The forcing
will decrease as it moves east but enough instability will develop
during the day to allow the showers to continue into Vermont. A
couple embedded thunderstorms are expected as well. While sufficient
deep layer shear will be in place for strong to severe storms, low
instability, some dry air aloft, a lack of well-defined surface
boundary and morning clouds/showers will be working against it.
Therefore, strong to severe storms are not likely today, but cannot
be completely ruled out. These storms will fall apart as they try to
push southeast this evening and southern areas should remain mostly
dry. High pressure will build down from Canada to end the week and
start the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
By Friday morning, temperatures should be in the 40s and low 50s for
most places. Highs during this stretch will be seasonable, with
temperatures rising into the 70s and low 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: All models in general agreement that northern stream
shortwave in central Canada will drop toward the northern Great
Lakes-western Ontario and close with a surface low in the same
vicinity Sat ngt-Sun. Still in question is whether a secondary low
develops near southern New England or not.

The best chance for showers/rain, no matter what scenario, will be
closest to the primary and upper system in Canada, thus for our CWA
being northern NY beginning early Sunday AM and lasting through the
day with cold pool and some instability allowing for some -tsra as
well. Less activity expected for VT but showers still likely after
daybreak Sunday. Some residual -shra chances Sunday night and some
instability -shra possible Monday in northern areas closer to
closed low.

Still in cyclonic flow for Tuesday with some weak mid-level energy
so can`t totally rule out a chance of showers but more in the slgt
chc column for now. Temperatures for the period seasonable to a few
degrees below.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Approaching cold front will bring
showers to northern NY but weaken in coverage and intensity as
they move east late this morning and aftn. VFR conditions
expected despite any showers with perhaps a brief period of MVFR
for KMSS/KSLK.

Winds will be S-SW at 5-10 kts for most but some channel flow in
the St. Lawrence Vly may bring g20 kts to KMSS.

Winds become light again tonight with varying amount of clouds
so although I expect fog ard/aft 06z it may be more of a strtus
deck for some. IFR likely for KSLK, KMPV and possible for KMSS
and KEFK.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...SLW/Myskowski
AVIATION...SLW