707
FXUS61 KBTV 070532
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
132 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Dry and seasonable through Tuesday

2. A brief intrusion of tropical moisture on Thursday will give
way to seasonable, dry conditions heading into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper low will remain centered just to the east
heading into tomorrow, keeping the region in a seasonably cool
airmass. Skies will continue to clear as it inches to the east and
by tonight, the clouds should be mostly gone. This will set the
stage for efficient radiational cooling, with lows generally falling
into the 40s and upper 30s. The current forecast low at SLK is 37,
but it could easily fall a few more degrees if winds go calm early.
Warm air advection will begin for Monday and Tuesday, but it will be
unsuccessful in causing a significant airmass change, with the
humidity staying low and temperatures remaining around seasonable
values. A few showers are possible in northern areas Monday night
and early Tuesday morning as a dying cold front passes into the
region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A very humid air mass will quickly advect into Vermont
and northern New York late Wednesday into early Thursday due to
channeled flow stretching across the Great Lakes into New England
with 100+ knot flow at 300mb. Flow will be fast down at 850mb as
well, though the intensity of the LLJ has backed off towards 40-45
knots. It will still result in a short duration of 2" PWATs across
the region. Departing high pressure and the fast mid-level flow will
result in fairly strong isentropic upglide. There should also be
marginal CAPE of about 250 J/kg after dark on Wednesday for at least
the St. Lawrence Valley (LREF ~40% > 250 J/kg, but expect that to
percentage to increase as we get into the mesoscale model window).
So moderate rain, perhaps briefly heavy, will race eastwards. Again,
synoptic models are likely broad brushing rainfall amounts too much
given the LLJ will produce west slope orographic enhancement and
east slope terrain shadowing. The residence time of this moisture
will be very short (5-9 hours) due to the fast flow, which will
prevent significant rainfall totals. Broadly speaking, totals appear
to range about 0.25-0.75", and we`ll get towards the end of
mesoscale models tomorrow for some of those finer details.

On Thursday, the tropical air mass will be gone, but there`s still
going to be a little moisture lingering. Marginal diurnally driven
instability could produce a few showers Thursday afternoon, but
it`ll be generally warm in the 70s to near 80 while we await a cold
front that`ll pass through late Thursday night or Friday morning.
Medium range guidance has shifted towards drier solutions for
Friday. So we`ll spend most all our weekend without rain as broad
high pressure builds across the area. Some rain showers could begin
approaching towards next Sunday evening when broad surface higher
pressure will begin shifting offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through most
of the period under mostly clear skies. Some patchy dense fog
and/or a low stratus deck is expected to develop across the
favorable river valleys which may introduce a brief period of
IFR fog at KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK between 8Z and 12Z. Otherwise,
light winds this morning will become northerly at 8 to 15 knots
by late morning and go light and variable once again tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Clay