013
FXUS61 KBTV 140608
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
208 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 208 AM EDT Friday...

No notable changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 208 AM EDT Friday...

1. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will clip southern
portions of our region today, while otherwise sunny conditions and
low humidity will build in through the first part of the weekend.

2. Showers with a low chance of thunderstorms are expected late
Sunday into early Monday.

3. Near seasonable temperatures with a chance of showers mid to
late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 208 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Over the past few days, the signals for showers
associated with a vigorous shortwave trough have been uncertain for
Friday. There had been a trend for no precipitation with too much
dry air in place ahead of this wave, but the trend in recent model
runs has reversed such that it is becoming likely that yet another
interval of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a
thunderstorm or two will traverse our region. This time, it seems
like only our southern areas, primarily the southern half of St.
Lawrence County and perhaps as far north as portions of the northern
Adirondacks and south central Vermont, are in the crosshairs.
Representative forecast soundings show only about 400 - 600 J/kg
CAPE ahead of the showers, yielding a lower chance of thunderstorms
than in previous days. The associated low hourly probabilities of
thunder in the HREF-calibrated guidance (barely reaching 10% in a
small swath of the aforementioned area between 4 and 5 PM) look
reasonable. As in recent days, inverted-V soundings suggest that the
showers and thunderstorms will produce gusty winds with perhaps a
stronger wind gust with an isolated storm. The lower CAPE further
reduces the chances of any severe weather today where these showers
and storms track.

Finally surface high pressure builds in enough to bring chances
of rain down to zero areawide this evening through Sunday
morning. As such, through this period seasonally typical valley
fog each morning will provide the only potential weather hazard.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence continues to increase on a period of
widespread showers with a few downpours in the Sunday
evening/overnight timeframe as an area of low pressure passes near
or south of our region. The latest blend of guidance shows area
average rainfall near 0.5" to locally 0.75" for most locations, with
most of it occurring during the first part of the night per model
consensus. Ensemble support for heavy rainfall continues to focus
well to our south, but we will be on the northern fringe of well
above normal precipitable water coincident with a surge of
integrated water vapor transport out of the west. The most anomalous
moisture appears to be at the mid-levels/700 millibars where strong
warm air advection will occur, which is consistent with forecast
soundings showing elevated instability above that layer. So some
rumbles of thunder will be possible despite minimal surface-based
instability during the event, with a tongue of this instability
generally pushing northeastward with time Sunday evening per
consensus of the 00Z guidance.

The situation for Monday is hard to parse with regards to how the
weather will evolve. It continues to look like there will be a
trough digging slightly across Quebec that will drag a weak cold
front through our region in the wake of the low pressure system
discussed previously. Near surface moisture should increase somewhat
while deep moisture decreases relative to Sunday night, and diurnal
heating should lead to some destabilization as a boundary or
boundaries pass through. Forecast soundings suggest there may be too
much dry air aloft for parcels of air to rise sufficiently to
produce cold cloud tops, so at this point a slight chance of
thunderstorms looks reasonable. Altogether, there are mixed
signals on thunderstorm chances but scattered showers seem
reasonable with precipitation most favored in higher terrain.
The blend of models shows only around 20% chance of thunder
Monday afternoon in Vermont and closer to 10% in northern New
York.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Pretty much remain in a broad cyclonic flow that is
dominating the Great Lakes-NY-New England. Heat ridge remains mainly
across southern-southwest tier of CONUS. Our CWA is far enough from
the periphery of the ridge that we stay largely influenced by
the northern stream flow with seasonable temperatures and a
chance of showers now and then. The best chance for showers
after Sun-Mon departing system will be late Wed-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Mainly SKC with areas of fog and low
stratus to develop in climatologically favored valleys between
06Z and 13Z. This includes KSLK and KMPV. Outside of those TAF
sites, cannot rule out fog or low stratus developing in sites
that picked up some rain today, especially KEFK. Although
predominately VFR overnight for KRUT, KPBG have introduced some
fog and possibly MVFR-IFR for KMSS and KBTV.

Fog will lift at sunrise and conditions will improve to
widespread VFR after 13Z. shortwave may bring a brief chance of
showers aft 18z across KMSS, KSLK and KRUT.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/SLW
AVIATION...SLW