511
FXUS61 KBTV 030740
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
240 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 221 AM EST Tuesday...

Precipitation onset has shifted earlier for Thusday`s rainfall
while amounts for the frontal system have decreased. Otherwise,
minimal changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 221 AM EST Tuesday...

1. Warm temperatures continue through Wednesday with potential
for exceeding a few daily records Wednesday afternoon.

2. Light rain showers are possible this afternoon and evening,
then widespread rain is expected Thursday into Friday.

3. Some beneficial rain remains likely over the weekend,
although chances for heavier amounts have trended downward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 221 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezes will remain southerly today and
tomorrow, but will be increasing. Gusts 15 to 25 mph can be
expected today, especially in the northern Champlain Valley and
St. Lawrence Valley. Wednesday will see a surge of warm air
advection as southerly flow deepens and the pressure gradient
tightens. Gusts to around 30 mph are probable for channeled
locations with 15 to 20 mph gusts expected elsewhere.
Temperatures  will sharply rise over today`s highs in the
low/mid 60s to the upper 60s to mid 70s by Wednesday afternoon.
As the front and rainfall moves in Thursday, temperatures will
begin to trend cooler with highs back in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Light radar returns are evident across the
Canadian border with stronger returns evident in the vicinity of
Lake Huron. These returns will track eastward through the day as
a weak wave moves along the northern periphery of high pressure
centered over the mid Atlantic states. Best chances for rain
remain towards the Canadian border this afternoon and overnight
with only a few hundredths to around 0.12" of rain.

The next chances of rain will be on Thursday as the front moves
into the region. Models are showing more of a consensus that the
onset of precipitation will be earlier than previous forecasts
beginning in the early morning hours across northern New York
and by daybreak in Vermont. The biggest change has been in QPF
which has sharply lowered as strongest forcing shifts south of
the region. Chances are decreasing on amounts and most likely
amounts falling below 0.25" Thursday. There are still a few
ensemble members that have more forcing farther north, but those
have been dwindling each run.

KEY MESSAGE 3: At least a couple of chances for showers remains
on track Friday through Monday; however, uncertainty in timing
is large. As of now, the most likely scenario for precipitation
forcing relates to a wave of low pressure developing to our
southeast by Friday evening and working its way northeastward
Saturday, while a trailing upper level low slowly crosses our
region from the west. The potential for rainfall exceeding an
inch has decreased with the latest ensemble guidance, as fewer
members are supporting the idea of this low track retrograding
to the northwest quickly enough to bring a conveyor belt of
heavier rain this far north and west (as opposed to eastern New
England). Instead, much of the rain over the weekend may be tied
simply to showers that swing through in cyclonic, upslope flow.

In general, the GEFS supports a faster progression of the upper
level trough with weaker downstream blocking compared to the ENS,
supporting a Friday night into Saturday timing as opposed to showers
coming through later in the weekend into Monday. While there is
plenty of uncertainty in the details, the shift to troughing will
lead to a cooler and unsettled weather pattern into early next week
even if there are extended dry periods for a given location. For
those looking forward to winter weather, temperatures aloft may cool
enough for mountain snow chances, with about a 30-50% chance snow
levels fall to 3000 feet Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR will prevail throughout much of the
TAF period, although ceilings will lower resulting in at least
some MVFR later Tuesday at most terminals. Scattered showers
will spill out from our west through the next several hours,
with most coverage expected after 18Z and before 02Z, on the
southern flank of frontal system. Most of these showers are
favored to affect our northern terminals, with highest chances
of visibility restrictions at EFK. Ceilings are more likely to
drive flight conditions, with greatest chances of cloud bases
lowering to 2200-2800 ft after 18z Tue at MSS/SLK/EFK where
prevailing MVFR is indicated. Winds will mainly be light out of
the south/southwest, although southwesterly flow will become
marginally strong (30-35 knots at 2000 feet) late in the period
to result in LLWS at MSS when surface winds are expected to be
around 5 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th, with
the greatest chance of surpassing the record at KMSS.

Site | Record    | Forecast
KMSS | 71 (2022) | 73
KBTV | 73 (1982) | 72
KPBG | 72 (1990) | 69
KMPV | 72 (2022) | 72

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
CLIMATE...NWS BTV