471
FXUS61 KBTV 171136
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through today, and a
few of them could be severe. Following these, a strong cold front
moves through tonight and puts an end to the heat and humidity.
Cooler and dry conditions prevail through Saturday before showers
return for Sunday. The cooler weather continues for the first part
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 729 AM EDT Thursday...The showers have been very isolated
in coverage so far, and that trend looks to continue for the
rest of the morning. A little bit of clearing is also trying to
break out over northern New York and cloud cover should continue
to decrease this morning. These factors support the possible
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are moving through the region associated with a prefrontal
trough. They are all elevated so there will not be a severe
threat for the rest of the night. The storms have fast enough
motion that there is not a flash flood threat either, despite
conditions very favorable for heavy rainfall. It remains
impressively warm for the time of night, with parts of the
Champlain Valley still seeing temperatures in the low 80s. A
point of interest will be whether BTV can fall below 80 for the
rest of the night. It should continue to have winds close to 10
mph so it will be tough, but if any of the showers can reach the
terminal, it will likely fall below. The temperatures will not
matter for records as they will fall well below 80 this evening.
A low around 1000 MB will track northeast just north of the St.
Lawrence Valley during the day today. It will push a strong
cold front through this evening, but before then, it will help
develop a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms. HREF
means continue to have surface CAPE between 1,000-1,500 J and
0-6 KM shear generally between 25-30 KTs. With decent synoptic
forcing from having an unseasonably strong low close to the
north, there is the threat for isolated to scattered severe
storms this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the main
threat with these, and it will not take that much over parts of
northern New York where the strongest synoptic winds will be
moving through. Synoptic gusts of 15-30 mph are likely across
much of the region today, but there may be localized gusts up to
40 mph in parts of the northern Adirondacks and St. lawrence
Valley due to a strong low level jet moving through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 238 AM EDT Thursday...The heat and humidity finally break
tonight, and in pretty dramatic fashion. In the Burlington area
for example, dew points will be in the low 70s around sunset
and by sunrise, they should be in the low 50s. They will
continue to fall during the day and they will be in the mid 40s
to mid 50s across the region by afternoon. A weaker low level
jet will remain overhead tonight into tomorrow morning, and the
strong cold air advection will help mix down some stronger
winds, with gusts in the 15-25 mph range expected. Stronger
gusts are expected on the Lake Champlain due to efficient mixing
from the growing thermal gradient. High pressure builds almost
directly overhead tomorrow, causing winds to decrease during the
day, and by evening, they will go light and terrain driven.
Clear skies, calm winds and a dry airmass will set the stage for
ideal radiational cooling tomorrow night, with temperatures
falling into the 40s and 50s. The MAV has 40 in SLK so
temperatures in the upper 30s in the coldest hollows cannot be
ruled out. Temperatures return to seasonable levels on Saturday,
with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 252 AM EDT Thursday...Additional s/w energy and associated
sfc cold frnt moves acrs our cwa on Sat night into Sunday with
a period of unsettled wx likely. Given the fropa timing late Sat
night into Sunday, the probability of strong or severe
thunderstorms is low attm, given the limited instability, but
dynamics look strong. Much cooler and drier air returns for
early next week, as Canadian high pres builds into the region.
Warm days and cool nights are anticipated as 1020mb high pres
builds directly overhead for Monday into Tuesday. As trends
develop on timing/position of sfc high pres, low temps wl
probably need to be cooler than the NBM, along with lower sfc
dwpts, especially during peak heating. As high pres shifts to
our east by Weds, a return flow of southerly winds and moderate
low to mid lvl waa develops. This wl result in warming temps and
higher humidity values for mid to late week. Highs generally in
the 70s for Monday/Tues, warm into the 80s by Weds/Thurs with
lows mid 40s to mid 50s, except low/mid 60s near Lake Champlain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...Impactful period of weather with
changeable conditions anticipated at many of our taf sites over
the next 12 to 24 hours. A warm front is producing widely
scattered thunderstorms over parts of northern NY and central VT
this morning. Brief MVFR cigs/vis possible in the heavier
showers. Another round of thunderstorms are likely this
aftn/evening associated with a cold front, with brief MVFR/IFR
likely in the heavier convective elements. In addition, gusty
south/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots
can be expected today, which will switch to the west/northwest
by this evening with localized gusts up to 30 knots possible.
Behind the cold front cigs will lower to MVFR conditions with
some IFR cigs possible after 02z at SLK/MPV.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber