719
FXUS61 KBTV 310608
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
208 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will make for a beautiful Sunday and Labor Day with
dry weather and warming afternoon temperatures. A few showers will
be possible Tuesday, mainly over the higher terrain, but our next
best chance of widespread rain doesn`t arrive until late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 208 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will settle across our region
today and tonight, bringing ideal late summer weather. This
morning`s patchy fog and lingering low clouds will dissipate by
early afternoon, leaving behind ample sunshine and just a few
passing clouds. Highs will be warmer than yesterday but still a
little cooler than normal, with most locations topping out in the
low to mid 70s. This will give way to another chilly night tonight
as lows once again dip down into the mid 40s to low 50s. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few of the usual sheltered spots in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom flirting with the 30s by early
Monday morning. Patchy valley fog is expected to develop overnight
and linger into the early morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 208 AM EDT Sunday...Labor Day will start off sunny with some
patchy valley fog, which should gradually dissipate after sunrise.
Cloud cover will increase through the day, though expect it should
remain fairly thin and allow at least some sun to break through.
Even with clouds, expect another day of heating will allow highs to
warm close to normal, generally topping out in the mid 70s to around
80F. Radiational cooling won`t be quite as optimal Monday night as
what we`ll see tonight; east flow will bring in a bit of marine air,
which may result in some overnight stratus. Still, expect another
pleasant night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

High pressure will continue to dominate at the surface on Tuesday,
but a weak upper low and associated cold pool will drift northward
across western New England and New York during the daylight hours.
Forcing will be weak and CAPE minimal at 500 J/kg or less. Still,
moisture should increase just enough to allow scattered showers to
develop, particularly over the higher terrain owing to orographic
effects. A few rumbles of thunder are even possible, but any
thunderstorms should remain isolated in nature. Highs will be
similar to Monday, in the mid 70s to around 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 208 AM EDT Sunday...A weak upper low will break down Tuesday
night with some lingering light showers along the international
border. Surface high pressure will build back in for mid week as a
shortwave ridge builds in with dry air ahead of a warm front.
Wednesday will be seasonable and mainly sunny with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. In general, temperatures mid to late week will
generally be seasonable with our average high this time of year in
the upper 70s. Clouds will build in Wednesday night as a high
amplitude upper low swings out of the Great Lakes.

Probabilistic guidance across all ensembles progs a strong upper low
developing across the northern Great Lakes with normalized height
anomalies of 3 sigmas below average at 500mb. Portions of the
midwest may be under the 540 height line, which typically serves a
general basis for snow potential in the winter. This height anomaly
will lead to strong meridional flow across the east coast which will
efficiently advect moisture along a cold front by the end of the
week. While confidence in the presence of the upper low is high,
ensembles spread on the exact timing of the moisture corridor in our
region is wide. Models tend to move these features through too fast
so initial thoughts would be a precipitation onset closer to
Thursday night into Friday morning. However, some earlier ensemble
solutions show the onset as early as Wednesday night. There does not
appear to be any large scale blocking ahead of the system, which
could lean into a potentially faster system, however, models do hint
at a weak coastal low developing Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic, which
could slow the propagation of the trough. All in all, we need the
rain, and by the end of the week, this system has a good chance at
providing some wetting rainfall for a large majority of the region.
Ensemble estimates of precipitation show about a 40-60% probability
of greater than 0.5" between the raw MOS and NBM. Precipitation
should linger into next weekend as the center of the upper low draws
closer and a few shortwaves eject downstream. Temperatures will
become seasonably cool as well as the system approaches from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...High clouds and fog have begun to overspread
the region. Satellite shows fog in the usual river valleys east of
the Greens and in the Adirondacks. Given the recent rain, calm
winds, and mainly clear skies, many sites could see fog over the
next 6 hours if not already. SLK and EFK have already gone down to
LIFR with fog impacting the terminals. Fog is also in the vicinity
of MPV based on cameras which leads to higher confidence in fog
development at the terminal imminently within an hour or so.
Additionally, occasional observed 3kt easterly winds at BTV could
lead to occasional shallow fog over the terminal from the Winooski
Valley with temporary IFR or lower conditions through 09Z. MSS has
also seen brief IFR conditions, though short-lived. RUT/PBG should
remain VFR with southeast drainage winds and lake limitations to
fog, respectively. Beyond 12Z, all terminals will trend to VFR
conditions with winds becoming northeasterly at 5-10 knots and clear
skies in general.

Outlook...

Labor Day: VFR. Areas BR.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig