353
FXUS61 KBTV 171353
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
953 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat will increase through Thursday with daily chances of
afternoon thunderstorms and periods of moderate to heavy rain
showers. A cold front moving through the region on Thursday
will bring increased chances of stronger storms that could
produce damaging winds and downpours potentially leading to
localized flash flooding. Unsettled conditions will linger into
the weekend before high pressure builds over the eastern U.S.
bringing the potential for dangerous heat next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 948 AM EDT Tuesday...Cloud cover continues to increase
across the region, with a few showers popping up across southern
Vermont. The current forecast remains in good shape, with just
a few minor adjustments to temperatures and cloud cover to
better reflect the latest observations.

Previous Discussion...A quasi- stationary frontal boundary
remains draped over portions of the Northeast. This will provide
the focal point for rain today, especially across southern and
eastern Vermont as a trough moves along the boundary. A few
thunderstorms will be possible mainly across northern New York
and the northern Champlain Valley this afternoon and evening.
Behind the trough the surface boundary will linger and become
the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
PWATs will be rising over 1" with some areas exceeding 1.5-2
inches suggesting potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with
any thunderstorms Wednesday. Stronger storms are not out of the
question Wednesday with CAPE ranging 500-1250J/kg, especially
over northern New York as a trough drops out of Canada over the
afternoon hours. This could be a decent trigger for
multicellular clusters and possibly a line of storms to develop.
Apparent temperatures will be climbing with dewpoints rising
Wednesday displacing recent dry air. Highs will be rising from
the mid/upper 70s to near 80 today into the low/mid 80s for
Wednesday pushing apparent temperatures close to 90 degrees by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Warm and humid conditions will persist
Wednesday night as 850mb temperatures increase by a couple degrees C
throughout the course of the night. Precipitable water values of
1.40-2.00 inches are expected across the forecast area as well. This
will result in increased cloud cover by early Thursday morning as
well as additional showers and thunderstorms, potentially heavy at
times, riding the upper level ridge into northern New York and
eventually northern Vermont. Any heavier shower or thunderstorm will
prime the soil for additional precipitation Thursday to be
potentially hazardous. These warm, humid conditions will also result
in one of the warmest nights of the week as lows hover around the
60s and lower 70s and dew points in the 60s.

An upper level trough and associated cold front are expected to
impact the region on Thursday, meeting an air mass that`s primed
with heat, humidity, and instability. 925mb temperatures are modeled
in the 20-27 C range while surface highs are forecast in the upper
70s and 80s F and models project Pwats approaching two inches for
some. Surface CAPE values are expected to be around 1500-2000 J/kg
(isolated up to 2500 J/kg) and 6km bulk shear around 40-60 knots.
Some areas could even have 60-80 knots of bulk shear, though the
main caveat is that shear seems to manifest after the period of most
favorable instability, arriving slightly late to the event for
maximum severe potential to develop. Regardless, warm cloud layers
are projected around 10,500 feet, paired with a low level jet 30-40
knots paired with the aforementioned pwat values could indicate
any showers or thunderstorms will be heavy raining in nature.
The Weather Prediction Center continues to place our entire
forecast area in a Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall,
indicating there`s at least a 5% chance of rainfall exceeding
flash flood guidance in or around a given location.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Temperatures and humidity will take a
brief dip following Thursday`s activity with Friday`s highs in the
70s and lows both Thursday night and Friday night in the upper 40s
to lower 60s. A shortwave could trigger some scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday, then again Saturday night. Next week, strong
ridging still looks good to build across the mid-Atlantic buoying
temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Monday. With lows
in the mid 60s to lower 70s returning as well, the potential
for heat stress and heat related illnesses will be increasing.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions continue until
isentropic lift/moisture increases across a quasi-stationary
front draped over portions of the NE with MVFR CIGs chances
increasing south to north through 18Z. IFR CIG chances increase
after 18Z with a wave progressing along the boundary. A trough
approaching out of Canada could cause a few isolated
thunderstorms mainly over northern New York with some lower
potential in the Champlain Valley. Gradient winds are now
expected to channel in the northern Champlain Valley with some
gusts anticipated around 20kts for PBG/BTV; PBG could see a
period of gusts 25kts with favored wind directions off of Lake
Champlain 18-00Z. Finally, the trough sharpens a little after
00Z resulting in some LLWS potential for BTV/EFK/MPV, but PBG
may also see a brief period of LLWS should SFC winds decrease.
CIGs will sag overnight keeping most terminals MVFR or lower.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Boyd