394
FXUS61 KBTV 192323
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 PM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes made with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Light rain and cool temperatures expected on Sunday,
followed by drier and seasonable cool weather for the start of the
new work week.

2. Quiet weather for the extended

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Sfc analysis indicates weakening 1024mb high pres
stretching from Eastern Canada into central Maine, while  weak
1010mb low pres is over central Iowa with warm front extending into
the Ohio Valley. This area of low pres wl race toward the Ohio
Valley tonight with increasing clouds acrs our fa and light rain
developing along the warm frontal boundary by mid-morning Sunday.
Temps drop quickly this evening, due to very dry bl conditions/light
winds but warm after midnight. Lows generally mid 30s NEK to
mid/upper 40s Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys. The highest pops and
greatest qpf wl occur btwn 13z and 20z on Sunday, per best moisture
and lift proggs. Given the lack of instability and highest pw values
>1.30" staying south of our cwa, along with relatively quick
movement of system, thinking qpf wl range in the 0.20" to 0.50" for
most areas. Did note some southeast downslope component in the bl to
900mb wind fields, which could cause some localized shadowing along
the western slopes. In addition, RAP/HRRR sounding data at CLC
indicates good mixing below inversion near 1000 feet of 25 to 29
knots, so thinking a brief lake wind advisory wl be needed btwn 10z-
15z Sunday morning. As rain arrives, conditions wl stabilize and
mixing/winds wl decrease, especially by early aftn. Next noticeable
impact wl be the relatively cool high temps for Sunday, given
clouds/precip. Expecting highs only mid/upper 40s mtns to mid/upper
50s warmer valleys. A cool/raw day is anticipated with intervals of
light rain.

Sunday night, sounding data indicates strong subsidence inversion
developing under caa and blocked flow. Given this synoptic scale
scenario with rainfall in the past 6 to 12 hours, expect areas of
low clouds/drizzle, especially favorable upslope mtn elevations
above 1000 feet with some fog possible. Temps wl range from the mid
30s to mid/upper 40s with no frost formation expected given the caa
advection and bl mixing.

Monday-Tuesday...a period of very quiet wx is anticipated as strong
1030mb high pres builds toward the International Border from Hudson
Bay. This wl produce a cool-dry anticyclonic flow of air acrs our
cwa, with pw values dropping <0.50". This deep dry layer wl result
in large diurnal spread in daily temps and sharp elevation depend
gradients from mild valleys to cool summits. Have utilized the mtn
max temp tool to highlight this thinking, which supports highs l/m
40s summits to upper 50s to mid 60s valleys for both Monday and
Tuesday. Conditions look favorable for frost/freeze headlines on
Monday night/Tuesday morning for parts of the SLV and n-central VT
valleys. Lows generally mid/upper 20s SLK/NEK to mid/upper 30s,
except mid 40s near Lake Champlain.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A high pressure to our north and a low pressure to our
south will bring us several days of dry weather and cool
temperatures, perfect for your outdoor plans. Daily highs will be in
the 60s through Thursday before the forecast becomes less clear.
WHile the GFS has backed off from the more extreme scenario it was
painting during the last forecast cycle, the low pressure to  our
south will move up the coast sometime late in the week or into the
weekend, bringing some rain to the regions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR expected through 12Z under light winds
as mid to high cloudiness increases over time after 06Z. Periods
of light rain will then move into the region in the 12-15Z time
frame and generally persist through late afternoon before
tapering off late. Conditions gradually lower to MVFR at most
sites with exception being KMSS which should remain largely VFR.
Have opted to stay away from some of the more pessimistic
guidance showing more widespread IFR cigs tomorrow afternoon
given southeasterly flow regime and have only offered this
scenario at KSLK at this point as confidence remains low on this
playing out as advertised.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 222 PM EDT Saturday...

A brief Lake Wind Advisory maybe needed between 6 AM and 10 AM on
Sunday morning for breezy south to southeast winds of 15 to 25
knots, especially on the open waters. The winds will quickly
decrease to 10 to 15 knots once the rain arrives and helps to
stabilize the winds from mixing down over the warmer waters. Waves
generally 1 to 3 feet, but localized near 4 feet possible on Sunday
morning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Taber
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Taber