477
FXUS61 KBTV 231121
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
721 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers thunderstorms are moving through the North
Country this morning. A surface boundary will push these
showers and thunderstorms eastward into New Hampshire by this
afternoon. After a period of drier conditions, chances of
showers, thunderstorms, and a cooling trend return late this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 658 AM EDT Thursday...Main adjustment was to increase
shower coverage over St Lawrence County in northern New York
with light rain showers continue. Thunderstorms have largely
settled down in to isolated to scattered showers for the time
being. However, given breaks in cloud cover, surface instability
will increase as the sun climbs resulting in the return of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the morning. Otherwise,
the forecast is right on track with another unseasonably warm
day, but fortunately not as hot as yesterday.

Previous Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
moving through the North Country this morning along and ahead of
a front. While surface instability is nil due to nocturnal
stabilization, elevated instability and strong ascent along
prefrontal troughs are kicking off and maintaining thunderstorms
overnight. Most cells have been weaker variety, but a couple
have had elevated cores with 50+dbzs reaching 25-28kft. These
cells are capable of gusts in excess of 40 mph, frequent
lightning, and some hail generally to around 0.5". Rainfall
amounts with stronger cells have been less than 0.5", but rates
are higher with 0.36" falling in 15-25 minutes. This could lead
to ponding in poorer drainage areas and urban streets.
Convection will push through Vermont by early afternoon.

Otherwise, another warm afternoon is expected with clearing
skies and a lack of strong cold air advection. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to low 80s in general. Dry conditions will prevail
tonight as another front approaches from the north for Friday.
This boundary is expected to be mostly dry, but cannot
completely rule out a stray shower across northern Vermont. More
notable, is the tighter thermal packing supporting some cold air
advection and breezes for Friday. Temperatures will be
decreasing with highs generally in the 70s; a few spots in
southern Vermont could still hit 80; dew points will be falling
as well tamping down the mugginess.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 314 AM EDT Thursday...With drier conditions and much lower
dew points, Friday night will likely be the coolest evening
we`ve had in about a week. Overnight lows will be in the 59s
with around 50 degrees for broader valleys. By Saturday, the
next trough will be approaching, but the parent low will likely
become highly barotropic and potentially begin retrograding back
towards central Canada according to mid-range models. This would
support increasing shower chances Friday afternoon, but with
decreasing forcing. Have opted to keep thunderstorms out of the
forecast for north given projections of weakening upper level
support mechanisms. Expect another unseasonably mild day with
highs in the mid/upper 79s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 314 AM EDT Thursday...Low pressure crossing just north of
the international border Saturday night will drag a cold front
through the forecast area, kicking off an active period with
some showers and thunderstorms lingering into Sunday. Another
low pressure system will steer across the Great Lakes into
Canada, bringing more chances of precipitation for the first
half of the new work week. This system still appears to be a
slow moving storm, providing rounds of precipitation into the
end of the week. All of this showery and cloudy weather will
cause a downward trend for high temperatures, starting Sunday
about 5-10 degrees above average in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
then becoming closer to seasonal normals by the second half of
the week in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures are
forecast to remain around the lower 50s to lower 60s, however,
there is the chance for lows to fall later in the week,
indicating the potential for isolated frost.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Showers are dwindling this morning as
expected, so for the next 24 hours, we are expecting VFR
conditions with decreasing cloud cover and dry weather. Winds
currently out of the southwest 3-7 knots sustained will pick up
during the late morning/afternoon during the time period of 15Z
Thursday through 01Z Friday with gusts up to 10-25 knots.

A low level jet will drag southwards into the forecast area
overnight tonight, which could produce some low level wind
shear. Currently most confident in SLK for LLWS, but there`s the
potential for it to be more widespread. A few sites are having
observation communication issues at this time, and we are
working to resolve this. Please see the Equipment Section of our
Area Forecast Discussion for more information.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 23:
KPBG: 65/1964

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Some ASOS and AWOS equipment have been having communications
issues overnight resulting in missing observations from
BTV/PBG/MVL/MPV and some others. Technicians are being
dispatched to check equipment and address this issue.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
CLIMATE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV