322
FXUS61 KBTV 261842
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
242 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Rainfall amounts for tonight through Monday have been increased
slightly, though hydro issues outside of localized ponding are
not expected. The overall wind forecast remains on track,
except winds on Lake Champlain have been increased and a Lake
Wind Advisory has been issued.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

1. A coastal low to our south will bring waves of rain to
portions of our forecast area through Monday night.

2. Gusty winds associated with the coastal low will peak
tonight, then diminish Sunday.

3. Dry and seasonably warm next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The focus in the near term remains a deepening coastal
low to our south.  Given the dry air in place in the mid and upper
levels with ridging to our north, the main forecast challenge
will be precipitation amounts and placement as we remain on the
northern periphery of the system.

As of early this afternoon, the center of the coastal low is
positioned over the Atlantic, approximately east of Delaware
and southern New Jersey. While the majority of our forecast area
has been dry today, waves of rain are visible on radar imagery
moving westward into southern portions of our forecast area. So
far, much of this rain is falling into drier air, and thus
little precipitation has actually been measured at the surface
in our CWA. Up to a few tenths of an inch of rain have been
measured in the vicinity of Springfield VT, with no rain
measured at the surface anywhere else in our CWA as of early
Saturday afternoon. The column will gradually saturate going
into this evening, and measurable overnight precipitation this
evening into tonight will range from a few hundredths over
portions of central Vermont up to a localized 0.25+ inch over
higher elevations of Rutland and Windsor Counties.

As the low shifts onshore Sunday, areas further west and
north will receive measurable rain. Expect relatively light
accumulations Sunday into Monday over central and northern
Vermont, while Windsor and Rutland Counties will continue to see
more steady waves of rain. By Monday night, the low will
finally exit the area and showers will mostly come to an end.

Storm total QPF for the event will be as follows: northern
counties: 0.05-0.2", central VT and the eastern Adirondacks:
0.2-0.6", Rutland and Windsor Counties: 0.6-1.5+". Given the
recent dry weather and low flows on area rivers, widespread
hydro concerns are not anticipated, and this will mostly be a
beneficial rainfall for our area. However, some ponding could
occur in poor drainage areas, especially over southern portions
of Vermont where highest rainfall amounts will occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2:  The deepening pressure gradient between the coastal low
and the high pressure to our north has allowed north/northeast winds
to increase today over our forecast area.  As we head into this
evening/tonight, winds will peak over higher elevations, over Lake
Champlain, and over the Saint Lawrence Valley.

Peak wind gusts overnight tonight/Sunday morning over higher
elevations will be between 35 to 50 mph, with locally higher gusts
of 50+ mph expected along the mountain summits. In addition to
mountain summits, northerly flow will funnel down the Champlain
Valley, with winds 25 to 35 mph (20-30 knots) expected over southern
Lake Champlain through the overnight hours. A Lake Wind Advisory is
in effect for the Broad Waters and Southern Waters of Lake
Champlain. See Marine Section for more details on the lake wind and
wave forecast. Another location that will see locally higher winds
will be the Saint Lawrence Valley, where local topography will
favor enhanced northeast funneled flow locally up to 30 mph. In
addition, the pressure gradient will be strongest over southern
Vermont, and interaction of the northeast flow with local
topography will locally enhance winds over the slopes and
mountain passes of the southern Greens. Elsewhere, gusts will
remain in the 15 to 25 mph range.

Going into the day Sunday, the low will weaken slightly as it shifts
north and then west, moving inland somewhere around NYC and the
eastern NJ coast by Sunday afternoon.  The weakening pressure
gradient will allow winds in our CWA to relax slightly through the
day, though gusts 15 to 25 mph will still be common. Winds will
continue to diminish Sunday night through Monday, and eventually
will become light by Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Light showers associated with the nor`easter could
linger through Tuesday night before the system finally moves east
out of our CWA. High pressure will build in Wednesday and Thursday
and take control of our weather. Temperatures will warm to slightly
above seasonal normals reaching into the lower 70s. A cold front
will sweep through the region from west to east on Friday bringing
some precipitation chances, although the system does not have a
significant source of moisture. For now, PoPs are below 40% during
frontal passage. The front will set us up for a great Weekend with
temperatures a few degrees below normal and little chance of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...No aviation impacts through the day today.
Clouds will slowly lower in the overnight hours as the nor`easter
currently off the coast of New Jersey approaches our CWA. As the
system approaches, we will see increasing wind shear especially at
RUT and MPV. Ceilings will lower to MVFR for our southern terminals
by tomorrow morning. RUT could see some periods of heavier rain
during the day tomorrow, but other terminals should see only light
rain and minimal impact.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern waters and
the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Winds will increase today to
15 to 25 knots, with gusts to 30 knots, especially over
southern portions of the lake. Winds will build to 1 to 3 feet
today, highest over southern Lake Champlain. Winds and waves
will peak overnight tonight at 20 to 30 knots with waves 2 to 4
feet, especially in the early morning hours on Sunday. Winds
will diminish through the day Sunday, becoming around 10 knots
by the evening. Waves will also subside to 1 to 3 feet by Sunday
evening, then further subside to 1 to 2 feet Sunday night.

Winds will be lighter and waves lower further north over the
northern waters of Lake Champlain, where winds will peak around
20 knots tonight and waves will stay in the 1 to 2 foot range.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Duell
DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Duell
AVIATION...Langbauer
MARINE...Duell