171
FXUS61 KBTV 180705
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 304 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 304 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry through Saturday, then showers will impact our area on
Sunday especially our southern zones.

2. High pressure will provide our region with mostly dry
conditions and below normal temperatures, along with the
potential for frost in climo favored areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 304 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and cool weather is expected today through
Saturday night as a ridge of surface high pressure brushes by to
our north. Winds will be gusty out of the north northwest today
up to around 25 mph at times. Temperatures will also be cool
enough overnight for some pockets of patchy frost in the coolest
spots of the Adirondacks and northeast Kingdom. Temperatures
today and Saturday will range through the 60s with Saturday
cooler than today. Then a warm front will lift into our forecast
area on Sunday and bring showers to our region, especially our
southern zones. A southward shift in the models with this system
means we are now expecting between a trace and four tenths of
an inch of rain through Monday morning. Bulk of this system will
be south of our region, and slide east and away from the area
by Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A Rex block type of pattern will develop next
week to our west, which will hold a ridge of high pressure over
northern New England and Quebec such that we`ll get refills of
cool and dry air. The closed upper level low that gradually
works its way eastward through the Great Lakes region may open
up and get pushed ever so slightly northward as it moves to the
east, opening the door for increasing rain chances by Thursday.

Aside from this potential rain, the only other weather of note
will be chilly nights that set the stage for frost development.
For now, based on the expected position of high pressure, there
is a slightly higher chance of some patchy frost in portions of
the Adirondacks and central/northeastern Vermont Wednesday
morning, but it is on the table each morning Tuesday through
Thursday with relatively light winds each night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Currently a wide range in flight
conditions present ranging from VFR to LIFR which will continue
through 12Z. A slow trend towards improving conditions is
expected as winds off the deck increase and drying from above
gradually erodes the low stratus and fog that is widespread at
this hour. The northwesterly flow could more effectively mix out
the lowest clouds at sites such as EFK and MPV, while blocked
flow helps maintain IFR conditions at BTV and RUT. Highest
confidence in LIFR conditions throughout the next six hours
exists at SLK, and mainly VFR conditions at PBG. Around or soon
after 12Z, northwest winds will ramp up with gusts by 16Z in the
15 to 25 knot range at all terminals. These gusty winds will
persist through at least 00Z at most sites before diminishing.
Skies will be mainly clear with perhaps patchy fog development
towards the very end of the TAF period in the vicinity of SLK
and MPV.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Neiles
AVIATION...Kutikoff