692
FXUS61 KBTV 141655
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1255 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building slowly southward from Canada will bring
mainly dry weather through early next week along with a gradual
warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms arrives mainly
from next Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front affects the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1239 PM EDT Saturday...Main adjustments to the forecast
include lowering hourly dew point values across northern
Vermont, where dry air is flowing in from the north/northeast.
Temperatures are also not rising as quickly in southern zones
due to the continued cloud cover over places like Rutland and
Springfield. Rutland is reporting rain, but this seems more
likely mist.

Prior discussion...
Variable clouds will give way to partial to full sunshine by
later this morning/afternoon from north to south as high
pressure builds into the region (far southern counties may hold
onto clouds a bit longer). Outside a stray early morning light
shower central/south, dry weather is expected with pleasant
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s under light northerly flow
less than 10 mph.

Mainly quiet weather then continues for tonight into Sunday. There
will be gradual increase in cloud cover with a few, spotty light
showers possible central/southern counties on Sunday with the
passage of a very weak mid level shortwave trough, but QPF is scant
and very light where showers do occur and most areas should remain
dry. Temperatures remain within a degree or two of seasonal mid-June
norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...The end of the weekend continues to look
mainly quiet and for most on the dry side. Upper level flow will
look to remain zonal with some northwesterly flow leading to
temperatures close to seasonal normals. Highs in the mid 70s and
with lows down into the low to mid 50s. Weak shortwave energy
associated with the marginal northwest flow, along with dew points
near 60, could help develop some weak instability and showers,
primarily over the mountains during the day Monday. Otherwise, most
locations should be dry with mostly cloudy skies expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...The long term overall does not have any
highly impactful weather as of right now, however warming
temperatures and dew points will lead to daily instability with
chances for showers and thunderstorms everyday. A weakly amplified
positively tilted upper level trough will slowly move eastward over
the course of the week. This will keep the area firmly in the warm
sector with ensemble temperatures 5- 10 degrees above normal with
highs in the upper 70s early week to mid 80s by mid to late week.
Dewpoints will also trend into the 60s making it feel more on the
humid side as well. Thermodynamics and open wave energy will lead to
daily instability development. The greatest chance for showers and
thunderstorms exists Wednesday and Thursday from an approaching
front which could bring the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms, which we will monitor closely in the coming days.
Highest PoPs in the extended portion are generally 65-80% on
Thursday afternoon. Winds also will generally be on the breezy side
through the extended period with the instability around. Tuesday
afternoon looks to be the windiest of the long term with a nose of
an 850mb jet scraping the region as it moves northeastward across
the St. Lawrence Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected for all sites
other than RUT until 07Z-09Z Sunday when some model solutions
are suggesting valley fog will develop and drop visibilities and
ceilings. RUT remains in the clouds swathed across southern
Vermont, and will likely have ceilings 2000-2500 feet above
ground level through about 21Z today. These MVFR cigs are not
expected to stay away long, however, as moisture continues to
favor southern Vermont, and we could see a return of cigs
1500-2500 feet by 02Z-06Z Sunday.

Confidence is not high in terms of fog elsewhere as we are not
seeing good agreement amongst models and fog is not
climatologically favored this time of year. We seem too far from
the stationary front in the southeastern US to have that
influence fog development. Cloudy skies in the southern half of
the forecast area could inhibit fog as well. However, winds are
looking light and variable for much of the night, so any calmer
periods could get fog going. If fog were to develop tonight
around 07Z-09Z, the most likely spots are SLK and MPV, with
perhaps some fog in the St. Lawrence Valley as well, impacting
MSS. Any potential fog would dissipate by around 11Z-15Z Sunday.
RUT`s MVFR ceilings may increase to VFR levels as well around
15Z Sunday, but some projections show these low clouds lasting
through 18Z Sunday.

While winds will be light (mostly under 10 knots) and variable
for much of the next 24 hours, we`ll also see an overall
northeasterly to southeasterly component to the winds. LLWS is
not a concern at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Storm
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Storm