165
FXUS61 KBTV 121124
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 322 AM EDT Saturday...

Increased probability of precipitation and associated precipitation
amounts over central and southern Vermont tonight into Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 322 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms
expected tonight through Sunday night across our forecast area with
marginal risk for severe on Sunday.

2. Drier and cooler with patchy frost possible on Monday night,
followed by warmer and more unsettled weather by mid to late this
upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 322 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Early morning GOES-19 Night Fog product is indicating
areas of patchy dense valley fog in climo favored areas as temps
have dropped into the mid 30s SLK to lower 50s in the CPV. Coolest
night of the fall season acrs most of our cwa under 1020mb high pres
centered over central NY attm. Sfc high pres wl shift off the New
England Coast this morning with developing southerly flow at all
lvls expected to develop by this aftn. GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor
imagery shows potent s/w energy, deep moisture, and associated
convection over the Ohio Valley which is progged to angle toward our
cwa tonight into Sunday. Moisture advection wl increase quickly on
deep south to southwest flow with pw values surging btwn 1.50 and
1.75 by 12z Sunday. In addition, CAM show developing elevated
instability parameters under developing waa tonight acrs our central
and southern cwa. 00z HREF mean qpf btwn 06z-12z shows 0.25 to 0.50"
acrs central/southern VT, while only a few hundredths to 0.20" near
the International Border. Based on this and a shift northward in
both CAMS and global guidance, have increased qpf and pops,
especially acrs central and southern VT zones and portions of the
High Peaks tonight. Temps warm into the 70s today and only cool into
the mid 50s to mid 60s tonight with developing clouds/winds and
precip anticipated with some increase in humidity levels by 12z
Sunday.

For Sunday, SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe to the
International Border, which wl be conditional on how much
clearing/instability can develop ahead of approaching s/w and cold
frnt. Deep layer shear is favorable with values in the 40 to 55
knots range, but instability is questionable based on how much sfc
heating can occur. Thinking strong mid lvl wind field may shear
convective updrafts and limit vertical growth, especially with sfc
based CAPE values only in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range. If more sfc
heating/instability can develop the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms would increase acrs our cwa on Sunday aftn/evening.
Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected btwn 00z-
09z Monday as potent northern s/w energy drops toward the SLV.
Better instability is shifting into eastern New England, so
potential for svr aft 00z is limited. Temps warm into the mid 70s to
lower 80s on Sunday and cool back into the lower 40s to lower 50s by
Monday morning. Based on cyclonic northwest flow and associated caa,
expect clouds to linger, especially acrs the upslope areas of the
northern Dacks and central/northern Greens on Monday morning, before
high pres clears the skies by afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A progged 1026mb high pres builds directly overhead by
00z Tuesday with mostly clear skies and light winds anticipated
overnight. This wl allow for temps to quickly fall back into the
upper 20s SLK to mid/upper 40s CPV by 12z Tuesday with areas of
patchy frost and fog likely. Our fast flow aloft prevails for Tues
thru most of the upcoming week with increasing chances for precip on
Tues evening and again for mid to late week. The system for late
Tues is looking less and less impressive as dynamics are sheared
apart in the fast westerly flow aloft and best moisture is falling
apart as it encounters very dry air from departing high pres. Have
trimmed back pops from likely to chc with this forecast package.
Better moisture/dynamics arrive Thurs associated with pw values near
1.5" and some weak sfc based instability angling toward our cwa
ahead of weak cold frnt. After below normal temps on Tues, values
should warm back into the 70s to near 80F for Weds/Thurs, before
slightly cooler air arrives by next Friday. Lows generally at or
above normal after Tuesday due to the lack of strong sfc high pres.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Any lingering fog at MPV and associated
LIFR conditions will lift by 13z per latest trends on GOES-19
True Color imagery. Otherwise, VFR conditions with developing
south to southwest winds 5 to 15 knots can be expected today.
Clouds thicken and lower toward sunset this evening with MVFR
CIGS developing toward 06z as rain showers approach our southern
TAF sites. Sounding data shows a lowering inversion with
increasing moisture, which could produce localized IFR CIGS at
SLK toward 12z Sunday. Vis should remain in the 4-6sm in any
rain shower activity late tonight. Channeled flow will result in
some gusty winds, especially at BTV overnight into Sunday
morning with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible. Areas of wind shear
and turbulence possible, especially as low level jet
strengthens.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 322 AM EDT Saturday...

A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon and tonight for
developing south winds. Expect south winds 5 to 10 knots this
morning to increase 15 to 25 knots by mid afternoon with localized
gusts up to 30 knots possible near sunset. These gusty south winds
will continue overnight into Sunday at 15 to 30 knots with a few
higher gusts likely. Wave build 1 to 3 feet by this afternoon and
increase 2 to 5 feet overnight.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Taber