865
FXUS61 KBTV 281839
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
239 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 239 PM EDT Monday...

No substantial changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 239 PM EDT Monday...

1. Scattered showers, with steadier rain primarily in southern
and eastern Vermont, will persist through this evening as a
Nor`easter departs to the northeast. A slow clearing trend will
occur tomorrow with dry weather returning.

2. High pressure will keep our region dry over the next few
days along with a warming trend and variable cloudiness. Localized
breezy conditions will develop on Thursday.

3. Several rounds of showers possible late week and this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 239 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A very well defined low pressure center spinning
northeastward continues to be evident on satellite imagery and will
approach Cape Cod this evening. The system`s upper level low is
displaced well to the northwest over southern New England, and most
of the rain is located on its northwestern flank with observed
rainfall rates near 0.1"/hour. As the upper low tracks farther north
early this evening, bands of light to moderate rain will slide that
way such that steadier rain should move across all of central and
eastern Vermont before exiting to our east tonight. Additional
rainfall in this swath is likely to be in the range of 0.1" to 0.5",
which will lead to storm totals localized in southern Windsor County
approaching 2", but with most of the region in the 0.25" to 1"
range.

As rain comes to an end, there will still be a lot of low level
moisture and only modest drying aloft from the north-northwest
overnight. Hence, expect early morning low clouds with the 925-850
millibar layer remaining saturated, and perhaps localized fog almost
areawide with perhaps exceptions in the lee of some of the higher
peaks such as near Schroon Lake, NY. As the day progresses, cyclonic
flow will linger and help maintain a thin layer of shallow clouds
such that mountains remain obscured, slowly improving from west to
east as top-down drying occurs. Only as the weakening upper level
low departs into southern Maine or Gulf of Maine, much of western
portions of northern New York will trend sunny while clearing
remains limited to late in the day in much of Vermont. The cloud
cover will lead to only a small variation in temperature from
sunrise to sunset again as in recent days. Areas that see a longer
period of sunshine such as in the St. Lawrence Valley should be
several degrees warmer, where highs will approach 70 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The main forecasting challenge mid-week will be
related to low clouds and fog, particularly Wednesday morning.
The air mass looks a little too warm to be dealing with frost
potential, with above normal 850 millibar temperatures near 50
degrees requiring an extremely strong subsidence. We will have
seasonably moist air still in place following the early week
rain and humid conditions, and boundary layer winds will be
quite light as deep layer ridging moves overhead. This is a
near-ideal setup for temperatures to drop well below crossover
values. And as a result, widespread patchy and dense valley fog
is likely, especially given how long our nights are this time of
year.

Aside from some higher altitude clouds, a tranquil period
Wednesday into Thursday is expected as temperatures verge on
unseasonably warm. Based on the latest blend of models, high
temperatures in the lower elevations across Vermont and the
Champlain Valley on Thursday will likely be in the 75 to 80
range. This would put the daily record high at Montpelier in
some jeopardy (about a 20% chance of at least tying the current
record from 2002). One other notable aspect on Thursday will be
modest southerly/southwesterly channeled flow. Have boosted
winds on Lake Champlain, with soundings showing favorable
conditions especially in the morning hours when sustained winds
could be above 20 knots. Likewise, have increased wind gusts in
the wide valleys with potential for 30+ mph values. An
approaching cold front and the increased flow out in front of
this system later in the day points to seasonably stronger
winds in the St. Lawrence Valley, approaching 40 MPH in a
reasonable higher end scenario. Given climatology, sustained
winds look marginally strong in this area but gusts will not be
impactful.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A weak cold front looks poised to bring scattered
showers to the region late Friday afternoon and Friday night. The
lack of thermal gradient on the back side of the cold front will
limit overall vertical ascent which will likely bring just a round
of light rain to the region. High pressure will build into the
region Saturday morning with clearing skies expected through the day
with light winds. Another round of rainfall looks possible on Sunday
as a low pressure system moves off the Virginia coastline and up the
east coast. This system will be significantly more transient that
this past Nor`easter which makes the window of rainfall much
smaller. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the track of
this low pressure system but the trends have been further south and
east. Some correction in low track is expected over the next few
days but Sunday could be on the wet side if the low tracks further
inland over the weekend. Thereafter, high pressure will build back
into the region for early next week with seasonally cool
temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Widespread MVFR to localized IFR ceilings
continue this afternoon as a Nor`Easter remains off the east
coast. We should see a gradual decrease in ceiling height by 21Z
as flow becomes more northerly with a sharper decrease in
ceilings after 00Z. The idea is that most places drop to 200 to
600 ft overnight with only gradual improvement back to MVFR
conditions expected by 16Z on Tuesday. Winds will remain light
out of the north during this timeframe. Scattered showers this
afternoon may bring a brief reduction in visibility but no
significant obscurations are anticipated at this time.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Clay/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Clay