343
FXUS61 KBTV 170001
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
801 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and sunshine will remain in place today, though
wildfire smoke will likely keep conditions hazy. The heat and
humidity continue until tomorrow, but a cold front will finally
put an end to it tomorrow night. The front will cause scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. Short lived,
locally severe thunderstorms will be possible, capable of gusty
winds and heavy rainfall Thursday afternoon. Another reinforcing
front will cross late Saturday into Sunday to keep conditions
seasonable before warm air returns the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 201 PM EDT Wednesday...Hot weather today is ongoing. Most the
forecast area is in the mid 80s to just touching 90 with dewpoints
ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Several reliable stations
Champlain Valley have now climbed above 95 F heat index values, and
these will likely expand as we reach peak heating in just an hour or
so.

For this evening and overnight, convection will have a late showing
with showers and a few storms bubbling across northern New York
around sunset and then slowly lift over northern Vermont during the
overnight hours. There will be a larger push between about 5 AM and
noon while a subtle upper trough pivots across as temperatures
remain warm in the mid 60s to mid 70s. A stronger upper trough will
move near or north of Montreal with a sub 1000mb low, which is
pretty strong for this time of year. In classic North Country and
Vermont fashion, there is a tiny dry slot in between the morning
activity and this incoming feature, raising the questions about how
much solar heating we can get before convection initiates along the
incoming front. The prefrontal trough will begin to track into
northern New York about 3-4 PM, reach the Champlain Valley about 6-7
PM, and then exit east of Vermont around 9-10 PM.

Although CAPE profiles are tall, skinny variety, there will be about
1000 J/kg of DCAPE, 30-35 knots of shear, and strong frontal forcing
against a sharp thermal gradient. There is also a late-season low-
level jet of 40-45 knots at 850mb. Although this and the surface low
will add some background helicity, the skinny CAPE profiles could
limit sustained rapid vertical velocities and also result in some
downslope flow that could disrupt the development of any organized
features. The main thing this could do is accelerate any winds
coming off the Adirondacks or east of the Greens in any particular
strong shower or storm. Even outside thunderstorm activity, this
could result in 20 to 30 mph gusts, locally to 35 mph for the
northeastern slopes of the Adirondacks. Otherwise, the severe
potential will be conditional at best. A day 2 marginal risk outlook
(Level 1 of 5) remains for localized, short-lived severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 201 PM EDT Wednesday...On Thursday night, the wind shift
boundary will shift south, and there could be some additional
showers across the area before cool, dry air rushes in. Minimum
temperatures will fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s, and then
Friday will be much more pleasant with 70s to near 80. No PoPs
are expected for Friday. Overnight, skies will be mostly clear
with light winds. This should result in most all Vermont and
northern New York falling below 60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 201 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure lingers Saturday with
seasonable conditions and highs ranging from the upper 70s to the
low/mid 80s. Late Saturday into Sunday a frontal system is progged
to move through bringing widely scattered showers. Models favor the
parent low position displaced well into northeastern Canada
resulting in weaker forcing along the boundary. Given a mostly
nocturnal passage, thunderstorm chances will be blunted, but remain
non-zero. The replacement airmass following the front will be out of
the Canadian plains and is strongly favored to be drier given its
continental origin. As such, pleasant conditions are anticipated
early next week with a slow warming trend as the high`s center
tracks slowly eastward and becomes absorbed by the semi-permanent
Bermuda Ridge over the western Atlantic. Mid-late week,
southwesterly flow is more likely to return possibly resulting in a
sharper warming trend back above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions will largely persist aside
from fluctuations in visibility due to convection. An
unseasonably strong front will pass through western portions of
the airspace at the end of the period, and ceilings could lower,
about 30% chance, to MVFR at MSS and SLK. Said frontal system
will progress through the Northeast with scattered showers and
increasing chances of thunderstorms during the afternoon. The
latest forecast data has trended slightly faster, but overall
the earlier round of showers is less predictable than the
second round, which will be generally from 18Z to 00Z. The later
convection suggests at least a 30% chance of thunderstorms at
all TAF sites when showers are more likely to consolidate into
broken lines.

Southwesterly/southerly flow aloft will result in some gusts exceeding
20kts in channeled areas like the northern Champlain Valley and
at MSS. These winds will shift to the west/northwest between
about 22 and 23 Z at MSS and 23 and 00Z at SLK, and marginally
strong flow could support LLWS at SLK during that period.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
TSRA, Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd/Kutikoff