Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
456 FXUS61 KBTV 151750 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 150 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 134 PM EDT Saturday... Beneficial rainfall increasingly likely Sunday night into early Monday morning. Amounts near 1" possible in Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 134 PM EDT Saturday... 1. Pleasant conditions through the daylight hours Sunday, then widespread showers with moderate, beneficial rainfall Sunday night into Monday morning. 2. Near seasonable temperatures are expected next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms mid-week as a cold front moves through the region. && .DISCUSSION... As of 134 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Large area of high pressure (1025 mb) centered over sern Ontario will remain our controlling weather feature tonight and through the daylight hours on Sunday. Daytime flat cumulus field this afternoon will give way to mostly clear and light wind conditions tonight. While some high clouds move in late across nrn NY, conditions once again appear favorable for locally dense fog 06-12Z east of the Green Mountains in Vermont. Good radiational cooling conditions overall, with overnight lows mainly in the 40s, except low-mid 50s in the immediate Champlain Valley. PoPs NIL overnight. PBL winds switch light southerly Sunday as sfc anticyclone shifts to the Gulf of Maine. Channeled flow will yield somewhat stronger winds over Lake Champlain of 10-15 kt. This will allow for slightly warmer afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Humidity remains modest though, with 2-m dewpoints generally in the mid-upper 50s. Modest 850-500mb height falls and weak sfc low/frontal system bring increasing clouds and widespread showers for Sunday night into early Monday. Rainfall amounts generally 0.25-0.50" with this system...and generally beneficial. With that said, some of the statistical guidance, including the probability matched mean (PMM) QPF from the REFS indicates potential for around 1" rainfall from Jay Peak eastward across the Northeast Kingdom. Still not enough to cause any hydro/flooding concerns, but highest rainfall totals appear likely in the NEK aided by modest low-level frontogenesis forcing. Drier conditions return Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure. KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading into the middle of next week, guidance continues to show broad cyclonic flow dominating the region, with a frontal boundary pushing through sometime Wednesday night into Thursday. This front will bring increased shower and thunderstorms, although there`s still a little uncertainty regarding the details at this time range, especially with how long showers linger across the area. After this system, a period of drier weather looks to return for the latter half of the week. High temperatures for next week will gradually trend back towards the 70s areawide after a few days in the upper 70s to low 80s earlier in the week. Overall, a period of rather unimpactful and seasonable weather is expected for much of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the forecast period. Winds this afternoon continue to be north/northwesterly between 5 and 10 knots, although a few gusts closer to 20 knots are possible throughout the afternoon. Winds look to trend light and terrain-driven this evening. Some fog development is expected again tonight, which would be the only exception to VFR conditions throughout the forecast period. Radiational fog is expected at the more favored terminals of KMPV and KSLK, and possibly KEFK as well. The duration of IFR or lower conditions looks shorter at KSLK in comparison to previous days, generally 8Z to 12Z with some high clouds expected to stream into the region tonight. Once fog dissipates tomorrow morning, around 12Z or so, VFR will prevail for the remainder of the forecast period with dry weather continuing. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banacos DISCUSSION...Kremer/Banacos AVIATION...Kremer