084
FXUS61 KBTV 041724
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
124 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through from west to east today and tonight,
bringing a line of showers and potentially a few embedded
thunderstorms. Ahead of it, strong southerly winds will blow between
15 to 25 mph, with locally higher gusts in the Champlain Valley and
far northern Adirondacks. The winds, combined with low relative
humidity this afternoon, will cause fire weather concerns. Some
unsettled weather remains through the weekend before cooler and
drier air arrives for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 302 AM EDT Thursday...Much of the region saw the boundary layer
decouple for the first part of the night, but as a southerly low
level jet gradually moves overhead, areas will slowly begin to mix.
This will cause temperatures to hold steady or rise in the second
half of the night outside the most protected valleys. BTV rose from
60 to 68 degrees this morning so far. It may prevent BTV from seeing
ten nights in a row in the 50s. These southerly winds will continue
to strengthen during the day, and despite a warm air advection
profile, there will not be much of an inversion so winds will mix
very efficiently. Gusts in the 15-25 mph range are expected in most
places, but channeling in the Champlain Valley and downsloping in
the far northern Adirondacks should cause them to reach up to 40 mph
in localized areas. Relative humidities will drop far due to a dry
airmass and the aforementioned deep mixing, so combined with the
strong winds, there are fire weather concerns. See the fire weather
discussion for more details. A line of showers will move through
this afternoon and evening associated with a cold front. Some
embedded thunderstorms are possible, particularly over northern New
York where a brief severe storm is possible. It is a low CAPE high
shear setup, but with weakening synoptic forcing as the front moves
through, the shear could be too strong for any severe development.
However, with the strong low level jet overhead, it will not take
much to mix some stronger winds to the surface so gusty showers are
still expected. The cold front passes to the east tonight, and the
showers will gradually leave Vermont. Tomorrow should be mostly dry
with the region caught between two fronts, but a couple isolated
showers are still possible. Another low level jet will enter the
region tomorrow afternoon, but it looks to be a little weaker and
more southwesterly. However, gusty winds are expected again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 AM EDT Thursday...Another front will be approaching from
the west Friday night, attached to a deep area of low pressure far
to the north by James Bay. Have increased winds during this period,
especially in the mountains. Low level southwesterly flow strengthen
out ahead of the front, and forecast soundings showing a jet
lowering into the 850 - 925 millibar layer with winds peaking during
the early morning hours in the 40 to 50 MPH at our higher summits,
while a combination of nocturnal stability and rain in the St.
Lawrence Valley will greatly limit gustiness at lower elevations
during this period. With low chances of rain in the Champlain
Valley, south winds overnight will keep temperatures unseasonably
mild, only falling slowly into the upper 60s for much of the night,
until winds relax towards daybreak. Most likely temperatures
elsewhere overnight will dip into the low 60s in Vermont and mid to
upper 50s in the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley on the cool
side of a strengthening thermal gradient.

An area of frontogenesis will be stretched out from southwest to
northeast, roughly from northern New York into northwestern Vermont
Saturday morning where a narrow zone of deep moisture and associated
convergence should promote increasing coverage of showers. This area
will be where heaviest rainfall will fall through the day,
especially as pockets of instability develop along with anomalous
precipitable water near 1.5". There doesn`t look to be much
instability to work with and it will be largely elevated, so would
expect relatively gentle rainfall rates under 0.5"/hour and in most
cases closer to 0.1"/hour. The zone of showers will gradually shift
eastward during the day, with it perhaps stalling out enough to help
a portion of Vermont see locally heavier rainfall. Meanwhile, enough
heating in southeastern Vermont will occur to support surface-based
instability, with most likely values 500 - 750 J/kg. Much greater
instability is favored farther south and east of the region where a
severe weather threat will probably be present in southern New
England, but the overlap of instability and the moisture convergence
over southern portions of Vermont suggest more efficient rainfall
Saturday afternoon/evening with any thunderstorms. From Friday night
through Saturday night, current rainfall amounts are expected to be
mainly in the range of 0.67" to 1" in Vermont, 0.4" to 0.75" in the
Adirondacks and western Champlain Valley, and 0.1 to 0.4" in the St.
Lawrence Valley.

Unsurprisingly with shifts in the position of the front during the
day Saturday, high temperatures are rather uncertain, especially in
the middle of our region. The spread in far southern/eastern
portions of Vermont is a bit lower as this area seems likely to warm
up into the 80s; similarly, much of northern New York is primed to
be sharply cooler than recent days with highs in the 60s. Low level
cooling should infiltrate all of Vermont by late Saturday night, so
low temperatures should be somewhat more predictable in the mid 40s
to low 50s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 107 PM EDT Thursday...There is the potential for a couple of
lake effect rain showers across St. Lawrence and northern Franklin
counties of New York Sunday afternoon as an upper level trough moves
through Ontario and swings a shortwave across Quebec and the St.
Lawrence Valley early next week. Water temperatures on the lake
continue to be mild and air aloft will be comparatively cooler
as west/southwesterly flow and orographic influence help to
produce some showers. Dry air at the surface and around
300-700mb will help limit these showers, especially east of the
Adirondacks. Still, cloudy conditions should keep daytime
temperatures a few degrees below seasonal averages with highs in
the 60s and lower 70s, then cool conditions overnight as well
as skies become clearer due to building surface ridging with
lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s.

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region for the
first half of the week, bringing us more dry weather. Temperatures
continue to look around or below seasonal averages through the work
week due to cool temps aloft mixing down to the surface. Highs
should reach only into the upper 50s through mid 70s, and lows could
fall into the mid 30s to lower 50s. Due to the high pressure and
calm, cool, dry conditions, we continue to monitor the potential for
frost, particularly Monday night as high pressure sits directly
overhead. A weak cold front looks to cross the region around
Wednesday night into Thursday, keeping temperatures cool and briefly
picking winds up a bit. Deterministic models disagree on whether
rain will fall with this frontal boundary, so confidence is low for
any appreciable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A line of showers and thunderstorms is
approaching from the west/southwest this afternoon and should
arrive at MSS by about 20Z Thursday, then SLK by around 22Z
Thursday. These sites could have a thunderstorm through around
00Z-01Z Friday, then anything following should be just showers.
Elsewhere, mainly showers are expected, reaching the Champlain
Valley around 00Z-01Z Friday and moving east from there tonight.
Visibilities will generally be 3 miles or higher, though brief
periods of IFR visibilities are possible as the line is directly
overhead a site.

Ceilings are also forecast to lower with and behind the line of
storms, mainly 1000-3000 feet above ground level but SLK, MPV,
and EFK are most likely to see ceilings dip below 1000 feet
05Z-14Z Friday. However, on and off IFR ceilings are not out of
the question for any site during this period. LLWS will develop
for a period of time this afternoon and evening at Vermont
sites. Southerly winds will increase during the latter half of
the night tonight and into the day tomorrow afternoon, with
gusts in the 10-20 kt range expected for most areas.


Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will be heightened today, with minimum
relative humidity values in the 25-35% range, with the lowest
numbers in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Winds
ahead of an approaching cold front will be gusty up to 35 mph in
the north to south oriented valleys and the northern
Adirondacks. Elsewhere, they will gust in the 15-25 mph range.
Recent dryness has dried fine fuels and has led to a moderate
drought in some areas. A Special Weather Statement for increased
fire weather potential will be in effect for today for all of
Vermont and portions of northern New York. Wetting rain from
showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive in the St.
Lawrence Valley early this afternoon and by tonight in Vermont.
Winds will begin to diminish with the onset of precipitation.
Lingering shower chances continue into the weekend. Fire weather
concerns will decrease with the wetting rain and decreasing
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will continue to increase and they should reach 15-
25 KTs in the latter part of the night and into the morning. Winds
should increase a bit more during the day, with gusts between 30-35
KTs possible in the late afternoon and early evening. They could be
briefly higher as a line of showers moves through in the evening. An
embedded thunderstorm is possible as well. Winds drop pretty quickly
tonight and they should be around and below 10 KTs by late in the
night. The break in the strong winds will be short lived as they
increase into the 15-20 KT range tomorrow afternoon, with gusts
again possible in the 25-30 KT range. They will then gradually
decrease late tomorrow night and into Saturday, eventually dropping
into the 5-10 KT range. Winds will generally remain southerly until
they shift westerly on Saturday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
FIRE WEATHER...BTV
MARINE...BTV