193
FXUS61 KBTV 011719
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is expected to open
the month of September. A few scattered showers will be possible on
Tuesday, but better chances for more widespread rain will arrive
Thursday evening into Friday ahead of a large upper low. In addition
to wetting rain, breezy conditions will be possible Thursday and
Friday, especially in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 209 AM EDT Monday...Picture perfect weather is on tap for Labor
Day as we remain under the influence of surface high pressure. This
morning`s valley fog will gradually lift after sunrise, giving way
to sunshine. High clouds will spread northward through the day, but
expect they should be thin enough to allow at least some sun
through. It`ll be another day with light winds, and highs should be
a few degrees warmer than yesterday; temperatures will top out in
the mid 70s to low 80s. Quiet weather continues tonight. Increasing
clouds should help limit radiational cooling and any valley fog
development overnight. Lows will range from the upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 209 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will continue to dominate at
the surface on Tuesday, but a weak upper low and associated cold
pool will drift northward across western New England and New York
during the daylight hours. Forcing will be weak and CAPE minimal at
500 J/kg or less. Still, moisture should increase just enough to
allow isolated to widely scattered showers to develop, with some
assistance from orographic effects and/or lake boundaries. A few
rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out but should remain isolated at
most. Any showers that do develop will quickly dissipate toward
sunset as daytime heating is lost. All in all, expect a vast
majority of our region to miss out on rainfall. Highs will be
similar to today. Clouds should mostly dissipate Tuesday night, and
expect there could be another round of patchy valley fog, especially
where any showers are able to occur. Lows will be in the mid/upper
40s to mid 50s.

Dry weather continues on Wednesday. Tuesday`s weak upper low will
open up and translate eastward as a weak shortwave, skirting along
the international border. The main impact from this feature should
just be partly to perhaps mostly cloudy skies, but a few rain
showers can`t be ruled out in northern areas. It`ll be another day
with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, but we`ll see a little more
wind than previous days, owing to a tightening pressure gradient
ahead of our next system approaching from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 209 AM EDT Monday...A deep trough will build into the region
for late in the week, bringing cooler conditions and some shower
chances. The most widespread rainfall will occur with the initial
cold front that looks to move through in the Thursday night into
Friday time frame. Afterword, there will be more fronts and
shortwaves that pivot around this trough that will bring additional
rounds of showers. Despite this, there will be large breaks in the
rain and any hydro concerns are very low at this time. GEFS/EPS/CAN
ensemble probabilities of more than an inch of rain in twenty-four
hours are only around ten percent, with each individual ensemble
having similar probabilities. The notable thing about this trough
will be the colder air aloft, with 850 mb temperatures looking to
range between three to five degrees celsius. Ridging will build in
on the backside but cool surface high pressure will remain in place
going into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Vis satl imagery shows developing
mid/upper level clouds spreading from south to north across our
region this aftn. These clouds may limit fog/ifr potential
tonight, as temps will struggle to reach crossover values with
thicker cloud cover. High confidence of VFR at all sites thru
06z tonight, before some intervals of mist/fog is possible at
SLK/MPV/EFK btwn 07-12z. Lamp probabilities show 60 to 70%
chance at MPV, 50 to 60% at EFK and just 30 to 40% at SLK. Given
this uncertainty have just tempo`d a combination of MVFR/IFR at
these 3 sites with VFR prevailing at MSS/PBG/RUT and BTV for
the next 24 hours. Winds remain light and terrain driven under 8
knots thru the period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber