217
FXUS61 KBTV 021815
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
215 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is opening the
month of September. A few scattered showers will be possible
today and tomorrow, but better chances for more widespread rain
will arrive Thursday evening into Friday ahead of a large upper
low. In addition to wetting rain, there will be some stronger
winds Thursday and Friday, especially in the Champlain Valley
and far northern Adirondacks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 151 PM EDT Tuesday...A decaying upper low over eastern
Ontario is leading to easterly flow across the region with some
cumulus clouds bubbling up across the higher terrain. While
instability remains low this afternoon, enough orographic lift
has spurred some isolated light showers across the Adirondacks
and northern Greens. These showers should stay confined to the
higher terrain through the afternoon with only a few hundreths
of an inch of precipitation expected. An isolated rumble of
thunder is also possible from these pop-up showers. Overarching
surface high pressure will quickly diminish shower activity into
the evening with clouds clearing. Calming winds and clear skies
should allow for good radiative cooling and fog development
across the usual climatologically favored locations tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 40s in the higher
terrain and in the low to mid 50s in the wider valleys.

Wednesday should be fairly similar to today both temperature
and precipitation wise. Highs may be a degree or two warmer in
the upper 70s to near 80 with some isolated terrain driven
showers as a weak shortwave moves from the west to the northeast
ahead of a developing low in the Great Lakes. Similar cooling
and clearing is expected Wednesday night, however, increasing
surface winds should be enough to limit widespread fog across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 151 PM EDT Tuesday...An approaching trough from a
deepening vertically stacked upper low over Lake Superior will
be our next weather driver by the end of the week. Winds ahead
of the trough will quickly increase during the day Thursday.
A tightening pressure gradient and a low-level jet will allow
wind gusts across the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley
to reach into the 30-35 mph range. Downsloping in the
Adirondacks and channeling in the Champlain Valley, particularly
on Lake Champlain, could lead to further enhancement of any
higher gusts. Model soundings suggest top of the mix layer winds
around 40 mph. Mountain summits will also be similarly gusty
with values near 35 mph. Showers from a cold front will
gradually increase early Thursday afternoon from the St.
Lawrence Valley into northern New York, and by Thursday night in
Vermont. Instability, given the late timing of the front will
be weak, however, shear, both directional and speed, will be
high. Winds at the surface will be generally southerly with more
southwesterly aloft, in addition to the presence of the low-
level jet. As a result, scattered embedded thunderstorms
associated with more of a disorganized line appear to be the
best idea of the shower activity Thursday. Thunderstorm
potential should weaken as the front approaches Vermont and
loses any diurnal instability with continued showers through
Thursday night.

We have been in a significant dry period to close out the
summer, and this front offers a chance at some widespread
wetting rainfall. Most of northern New York could see between
0.5-1" of rain with a decreasing gradient from 0.5 to 0.25
inches of rain from west to east in Vermont. Precipitation
amounts could be locally higher under any thunderstorms and in
the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...The frontal boundary will continue
to sweep through Friday morning. Expect some steady rain to
continue early Friday in portions of eastern Vermont, but by
Friday afternoon the better forcing moves to our east. Showers
will scatter out for the remainder of the day, trending mainly
dry by the evening.

Once the front clears the area, the broad cyclonic flow overhead
will quickly drive the next system towards our area.  This system
will be in the form of an open wave aloft with a low pressure system
reflected at the surface, lifting northeastward out of the
Great Lakes region. As the system approaches from the west on
Friday, the pressure gradient overhead will tighten again,
allowing southerly winds to once again ramp up during the day.
Another steady round of rain will develop Saturday as an
additional boundary moves through, followed by a quick
transition to unstable showery conditions that will last into
early Sunday. The beginning of the work week will mark a
transition towards drier weather as surface high pressure builds
in.

High temperatures will trend cooler going into the weekend, with
highs in the 60s expected areawide by Sunday and into Monday.
The coolest overnight temperatures will be observed on Monday
night, when temps will drop into the 40s and locally into the
mid 30s for portions of the Northeast Kingdom and colder hollows
of the Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...Most TAF sites are expected to remain
predominantly VFR with light winds and just some fair weather
cumulus clouds and just some isolated light showers over higher
terrain. Have  The exceptions will be KMPV and KSLK, where some
fog/mist is expected in the early morning hours. Furthest
reduced visibilities are forecast at KMPV, where some 1/2 to 1/4
SM visibilities are forecast between 08Z and 13Z, similar to
what was observed this morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Duell