344
FXUS61 KBTV 251913
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
313 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected tonight and much of
the day tomorrow, with rain chances increasing Thursday evening
onward. Friday night and Saturday will see some heavier showers
and thunderstorms, some of which may produce locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 PM EDT Wednesday...Compared to the last few days, cooler
and less humid conditions continue to work into the region behind a
passing cold front. High temperatures across the region are mainly
in the 80s this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s. Overnight lows
will drop into the 50s to near 60, near climatological normals for
this time of year. The drier and less humid conditions will continue
throughout the day tomorrow. Light northerly winds will continue
this evening, becoming more light and terrain driven overnight
tonight. High temperatures will climb into the 70s across the area,
with dewpoints in the 50s. Mostly dry conditions will prevail for
the first half of Thursday, with precipitation chances gradually
increasing throughout the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 311 PM EDT Wednesday...An active period of weather remains
likely for later Friday into Saturday as a warm front builds slowly
northeast into the region. Models remain in decent agreement showing
development of showers and storms, some with potentially excessive
rainfall during this period as strong warm/moisture advection from
the southwest combine with favorable upper jet dynamics off to our
immediate northeast. The exact placement and timing of the heaviest
rainfall remain somewhat inexact at this point, but consensus favors
far northern NY into the northern third of VT and across the far
southern tier of Quebec consistent with most recent WPC ERO
guidance. National blended ensemble QPF output supports a swath of
1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in this area, which, if the expected
convective element is present would yield potentially higher amounts
in scattered to localized areas. Given the remaining uncertainty on
the exact placement of the heaviest QPF axis, no flood watches have
been issued at this point. However, if consensus remains in future
model runs then that would be a foregone conclusion. I will add that
the behavior of these types of convectively driven systems often
attempt to build south and west over time into the more deeply
mixed, unstable airmasses, similar to what happened late last week
across central NY state. Our situation will likely be somewhat
different as surface instability will be lacking and most convection
should be elevated in nature, so time will tell on how this all
evolves. For an expert analysis on a similar type of event which
occurred in our area in 2002, please reference Whittier et. al. from
2004 on our NWS Burlington local studies web page at:
weather.gov/btv/research. In regard to temperatures, those remain
seasonably cool on Friday (60s to around 70) with slightly warmer
values expected on Saturday as the warm front lifts northeast into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 311 PM EDT Wednesday...Warmer and drier conditions should then
return to the area by Sunday into Monday as the northeast nose of
our most recent heat dome builds briefly back into the region.
925-850 hPa thermal profiles suggest this second round of warmth
won`t be nearly as excessive as our most recent bout, but highs
solidly in the 80s to locally around 90 appear reasonable by next
Monday. By Monday night and mainly into Tuesday, shortwave energy
passing across southern Canada will swing another front through the
region with renewed chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
all terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to be
light and northerly throughout the forecast period, becoming
more terrain-driven overnight. Fog development looks less likely
tonight compared to last night, being further removed from the
rainfall and enough flow just above the surface, although it
cannot be ruled out entirely.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The latest blended model and ensemble data continue to support the
idea that rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be
possible by later Friday into Saturday. With elevated convective
elements at play, the exact placement of heaviest rainfall remains
somewhat uncertain, though there is fairly decent consensus that the
focus will lie across far northern NY into the northern third of
Vermont. Given near normal streamflows and 0-40cm soil moisture
profiles, we do have some wiggle room/capacity to handle some of the
runoff. As such, widespread mainstem river flooding is not expected
at this point with the emphasis more on the flash flood threat in
small streams/watersheds in steep terrain. However, a few of the
smaller rivers may see sharp rises by Saturday. Our current blended
QPF progs support 1.5 to 2.5 inches in the aforementioned areas with
the realization that significant variability in rainfall
distribution often occurs during convective events. Current 3/6 hour
flash flood guidance of between 2 and 3.5 inches all appears
reasonable at this time.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Duell/Kremer
HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV