115
FXUS61 KBTV 011911
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

The wind gust potential for tonight has increased, though just how
strong gusts will be is still somewhat uncertain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

1. A cold front will bring widespread showers and gusty winds
to the region tonight and Friday, with falling temperatures Friday
afternoon.

2. Beautiful fall weather expected for the weekend.

3. Showers Sunday night into Monday and colder temperatures
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly cloudy skies will prevail through much of the
rest of the afternoon and evening hours today. While a few showers
can`t be ruled out, especially across northern New York, much of the
area will remain dry until tonight, when more widespread rain
associated with a cold front will pass through. Moisture will
increase this evening and overnight on a strong SW jet, approaching
60 kt at 850 mb. This will make for very windy conditions on the
summits overnight, where gusts of 50+ mph are expected. The question
is how much of this jet is able to make it down to lower elevations,
especially since the core of the jet will somewhat aligned with the
area of heavier showers. Guidance is somewhat split on this; the
NAM3 is the most generous with mixing, especially along the favored
northern/eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens, with gusts of
30-40 mph overnight. The HRRR keeps things more stable and limits
gusts to mainly under 30 mph below 2500 ft, while the RRFS is
somewhere in the middle. HREF probabilities of gusts greater than 30
mph are 65-85% in the higher terrain and in those favored eastern
slope areas, but feel this is somewhat skewed by the NAM3 which is
probably overdone. Have increased gusts with this package, but have
stayed closer to the 30 mph limit advertised by the HRRR. Still,
wouldn`t be surprised to see some higher gusts in the aforementioned
favored areas. And, of course, expect locally higher gusts on Lake
Champlain; more on that in the Marine section below.

As mentioned, moisture increases overnight ahead of the front, with
PWATs 1.50-1.75 inches. As such, anticipate rain will be moderate to
perhaps briefly heavy at times. However, the front will be making
fairly decent forward progress, so expect the main swath of showers
will be transient enough to preclude any flooding threat. Rain moves
into the St Lawrence Valley around midnight or so, then pushes
southeast overnight, stretching from the Northeast Kingdom through
the Champlain Valley and down into the High Peaks region by daybreak
Friday. The showers will diminish a bit in intensity and coverage as
the band moves into central and southern VT. A secondary front will
follow the main cold front and the main band of rain, ushering in a
much drier airmass. Can`t rule out a few lingering showers late in
the day, but overall the bulk of the rain will be done by 4 or 5 pm.
Temperatures tonight will remain fairly steady given the cloud
cover, increasing moisture, and south/southwest winds, but expect
they will fall fairly sharply on Friday as the rain spreads into the
area and the cold front moves through. As such, highs on Friday will
be coolest in northern NY and the Northeast Kingdom where highs will
only be in the low/mid 60s, while southern VT will likely see 70s
before the rain arrives.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will settle across the region Saturday,
then begin to shift eastward on Sunday. The result will be crisp,
fall-like weather with plenty of sunshine, especially on Saturday.
Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with north winds
5-10 mph. High pressure crests directly overhead Saturday night, so
expect a chilly night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, except
close to 40F near Lake Champlain. Winds turn to the south on Sunday
as the ridge axis moves east, which will bring slightly warmer
temperatures and increasing cloud cover for the second half of the
weekend. However, no rain is expected during the daylight hours. It
should be a perfect weekend for leaf peeping, so hope everyone can
get out and enjoy the foliage!

KEY MESSAGE 3: Our next chance for some showers across the region will
be Sunday night into Monday as a surface cold front crosses our
area. Temperatures will range from the 40s at night to 50s during
the day, therefore only rain showers anticipated for this timeframe.
Drier and cooler weather will return for much of the rest of the
week as a ridge of surface high pressure builds into our area from
Canada. Monday night and Tuesday night will both be quite cold with
temperatures well below freezing in the coldest hollows of the Dacks
and Northeast Kingdom. All other locations will be below freezing as
well, except closest to Lake Champlain where it will remain a bit
warmer due to the warm lake water. The coldest daytime period of the
week will be on Tuesday as highs top out in the mid 40s to lower
50s. Temperatures will moderate from Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Clouds remain in place across the region.
MVFR ceilings are present at MSS, RUT and SLK. Other sites are
all VFR bust still OVC. Winds have become more southwesterly in
some spots with wind speeds 7 to 13 knots sustained with gusts
16 to 22 knots. As winds start subsiding around 20-21z, LLWS
will be possible, mainly over KMSS and KSLK then spread east
beyond 00z Friday. Additionally, some isolated rain showers may
reach Adirondacks in the 18-20z timeframe. Main shower
activity with potential MVFR conditions enter KMSS around 00z
with KSLK around 04z and after 06z Fri east. Mainly MVFR
conditions are anticipated with lowered visibilities and
ceilings in showers.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the rest of today through
tonight. South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt are
expected. Waves generally 1 to 3 feet, locally up to 4 feet.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Hastings
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Hastings