470
FXUS61 KBTV 150118
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
918 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 913 PM EDT Tuesday...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for northern New
York and Vermont in effect and is in effect until 4 AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
into the overnight hours increasing the risk of damaging winds,
hail, and localized flash flooding. Another front moving through
Thursday will bring more chances of thunderstorms, but storm
intensity will be lower.

2. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the region
despite wildfire smoke reducing temperature and limiting heat
impacts to more of a marginal risk.

3. Seasonable temperatures and showers likely this weekend with
possible thunderstorms, then another round of showers and potential
storms early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong forcing is evident along a front slowly dropping
south out of Canada where 2000-3000j/kg of CAPE is present. These
CAPE values are also present over northern New York and Vermont
waiting for a trigger to kick off convection. Fortunately, wildfire
smoke has delayed heating while related particle physics has limited
the pre-frontal risk of thunderstorms. This tamping effect will go
away once the boundary approaches, but may delay more into the
evening. We remain under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms
which is at level 3 out of 5 - more uncommon for northern New York
and Vermont. Current timing of storms remains 7pm to 4am with
strongest storms more likely between 8pm and 2am as an EML drops
southward. Given strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates
aloft, supercell structures will be favored initially before a
transition to bowing structures. Both modes could produce a tornado
given the juiced environment that will persist into the evening
with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and dew
points around 70. Precipitation tonight may bring wildfire smoke
down to the surface limiting air quality.

A weak wave has become evident in CAMs and could produce a few
showers or a rumble of thunder in northern Vermont Wednesday. Then,
another front will drop south on Thursday on a similar track, but
the preceding environment and stability parameters will be much less
supportive of strong storms. Still some thunderstorms should be
expected and those with outdoor plans should take precautions.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat and humidity remain unusually high combining to
push heat indices into the mid and upper 90s for some locations. As
such, opted to keep the Advisory out, but may truncate the timing if
temperatures flatline late this afternoon. Wildfire smoke is the
culprit for limiting temperatures, but may still exacerbate impacts
with some evidence of near surface smoke being reported. AQIs are
still no unhealthy, but the combination of heat and increased
particulates may result in issues for those unusually sensitive to
these conditions. More smoke is expected to belch off the wildfires
tomorrow and may result in continued moderate AQI with tempering of
temperatures. However, conditions remain warm Wednesday before more
seasonal conditions return for the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Longwave troughing will cross the region this weekend as
two surface low pressures, one in the Great Lakes and one along the
mid-Atlantic coast, will interact while tracking through the
Northeast. Global deterministic models are fairly aligned in this
idea at the moment, providing increased confidence of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. The
probability of an inch of rainfall within 24 hours from this system
is around 15-30%. More likely 24 hour amounts will fall somewhere
between 0.05 and 0.25 inches. Depending on the storm track and
timing of any associated frontal passages, the threat of strong to
severe storms will be watched, but the threat should remain on the
lower side due to a cooler and less humid airmass. Temperatures will
remain around seasonal normals in the mid 70s to lower 80s both
Saturday and Sunday with nighttime lows in the upper 40s to lower
60s. Next week should start briefly dry on Monday with temperatures
increasing into the upper 70s and 80s, then another trough and
northern stream low pressure swing through to increase chance of
precipitation again on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals this evening, with westerly winds gradually
increasing over the next few hours. An Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms remains in effect for northern portions of the
forecast area (including KEFK, KPBG, and KMSS) with the threat
for thunderstorms at all terminals expected tonight. It will cause
frequent lightning, a period of MVFR to IFR visibility, and
gusty/erratic winds at any terminal as thunderstorms move
through overnight. Given the inherent uncertainty regarding
thunderstorm location and timing, PROB30 groups were used to
capture the most likely time period of thunderstorm activity,
with shower activity likely exiting the region after 09Z.
Surface winds are forecast to decrease tonight as precipitation
comes to an end across northern New York and Vermont, becoming
westerly to northwesterly 5-10 knots or less. Lingering moisture
under a shallow, low level temperature inversion could lead to
patches of mist and low clouds for a brief period following the
storms and showers. Wind gusts will likely pick up again
tomorrow afternoon, with VFR conditions expected.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory has been issued for this afternoon through
the overnight hours as southerly flow increases. Gusts up to
30kts are possible this evening outside of thunderstorms with
waves generally 1-3 feet and a few possibly up to 4 feet. Winds
are likely to decrease behind the front tonight after 4 AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures on Tuesday will be hot, but we are at the
climatological warmest part of the year. Therefore, it is far
from a certainty that any records will occur.

MSS looks most likely to set a new record. PBG also is
currently forecast to set a new record. MPV, and especially BTV
and SLK, are unlikely to do so. See below for current records:

Max Temp Records
Date     BTV      MPV       MSS      PBG      SLK
07-14  100|1995  94|1952   92|2012  95|1952  95|1934

High Min Temp Records
DatePBG
07-14   70|1974

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd/Kremer
DISCUSSION...Storm/Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...NWS BTV
CLIMATE...NWS BTV