748
FXUS61 KBTV 220700
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 257 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 257 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Seasonably cool and dry weather will persist through late
week, with patchy frost possible tonight and Wednesday night.

2. Chances for showers over the weekend and breezy north winds
continue, although most areas could remain dry. A warming trend
generally is expected moving into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 257 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure centered to our north will dominate our
weather pattern as it slowly drifts eastward this week. Mid/high
clouds associated with a upper shortwave trough will exit to the
east early this morning, leaving behind mostly clear skies for the
next few days. Days will feature ample sunshine and high
temperatures gradually warming from the upper 50s/mid 60s today to
the mid/upper 60s on Thursday. The dry airmass, clear skies, and
light winds will result in chilly nights; patchy frost will develop
both tonight and Wednesday night as lows drop into the low/mid 30s
across the Adirondacks and much of central/eastern VT. Upper 30s to
low 40s are expected elsewhere.

Clouds start to increase Thursday night and Friday as low pressure
lifts north/northeastward off the East Coast. There remains
considerable spread in deterministic and ensemble guidance in just
how quickly and how far north/northeast this feature and its
associated precipitation is able to move, but consensus at this time
is that northern NY and much of VT will remain dry through the day
Friday. Still, given the continuing differences in model solutions,
have stayed with the NBM for Friday, which keeps PoPs below 30% and
limits any mention of showers to our far southeastern VT zones.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An area of weak low pressure currently over the western
Atlantic along a stalled boundary will intensify later this week as
a shortwave trough over the Midwest is pushed towards it due to
strong ridging in southeastern Canada. The net result is this low
pressure system will become part of a large upper level gyre and be
steered northward. The question is how far east will it track?

The latest GEFS shows large spread, although there was a clear shift
to the west in the 00Z guidance compared to 12 hours ago. Relatedly,
greatest 24 hour chances of measurable rain in Vermont from this
ensemble increased from 10-40% to 40-60% and more in line with the
ECMWF ensemble. Have also noted the ECMWF ensemble had trended a bit
slower in the latest run compared to the 12Z guidance, but with low
tracks trending northwestward over the course of the weekend towards
Long Island. As such, while the consensus idea remains that the
storm track stays far enough south/east such that our region remains
on the fringes of the event, chances for some rain continue. The
higher probabilities of rainfall continue to be found in southern
and eastern Vermont and dwindle towards the northwest. Chances of
rain peak in the Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
timeframe, but there remains a chance of showers as early as Friday
night. Signals for heavy or excessive rainfall are non-existent, so
these showers would supply a beneficial rain.

In fact, dry northerly low level flow will support gusty wind
potential given increasing gradient flow as the low pressure system
deepens as anticipated. The expected north-northeaster flow appears
to favor the western Champlain Valley and Upper Valley for the most
climatologically unusual winds, and with regards to the higher
terrain, the greater potential for seasonably strong northeasterly
winds remains in southern portions of the region, most likely
peaking Saturday morning with potential for 850 millibar winds to
exceed 40 MPH. 90th percentile winds at summit level would possibly
approach 55 MPH in the southern Green Mountain areas associated with
a stronger storm tracking farther west than the consensus, which was
favored by half of the ECMWF ensemble.

On the western periphery of the large low pressure area, heights
will continue to rise, leading to a warming trend with low level
temperatures becoming slightly warmer than normal (850 millibar
temperatures 60-70th percentile) by Monday. Hence, plentiful
sunshine amidst dry and mild conditions could exacerbate the long
term abnormal dryness and moderate drought conditions in the event
that little or no rain falls over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will continue, although
patchy fog could affect SLK and MPV briefly during the next six
hours. Thick high altitude clouds are currently present but will
gradually exit from west to east between about 07Z and 11Z. Meanwhile
some shallow moisture centered around 2000 feet is present;
although low altitude cloud formation is unlikely, a period of
MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out at during this period at SLK,
complicating the fog forecast. Overall, probabilities of fog
have decreased somewhat at MPV from six hours ago and are about
the same at SLK. Hence, have only indicated temporary IFR
conditions in the 10-12Z period at MPV and continued the idea of
occasional MVFR conditions at SLK for the early morning hours.
Any fog should be dissipate by 13Z with mainly SKC through the
rest of the period.

Winds are generally light/variable through 12Z, then about
5-10 kts out of the north/northeast through roughly 00Z, except
10-12 knots at MSS. Winds again tomorrow night should be
light/variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff