096
FXUS61 KBUF 120635
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at
least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

2) Cool and dry weather expected on Monday, then turning warmer
Tuesday, with the next chance for some unsettled weather arriving by
midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend
with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

Surface high pressure will cross New England this morning, then move
off the east coast later today. A southerly flow will deepen across
the region, bringing a warmer and more humid airmass than previous
days.

A shortwave trough over the Tennessee Valley will move northeast
across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. A surge of deep
moisture, with PWATS averagering 1.6inches (80-90th percentile
for this time of year) will enter portions of western and north-
central NY through this evening. This afternoon, weak surface
based instability is expected to develop across far western NY.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected from noon
through the afternoon. Weak low and mid lapse rates and weak
0-6km shear will support non- severe thunderstorms today. Due to
the high moisture content and potential for training storms,
there is a low risk of isolated flooding across the western
Southern Tier late this afternoon through this evening. HREF
3-hr PMM suggests the potential for an isolated location
receiving an inch of rain in 3 hours across the Southern Tier.
As the trough moves eastward this evening, showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to expand into the Finger Lakes
region to the southern Tug Hill region, with the threat of
flooding east of the region. The warm and humid airmass will
persist ahead of a cold front and isolated to scattered showers
can`t be ruled out overnight.

A deepening upper level trough will move across the Great Lakes
region Sunday. A cold front is expected to move across the forecast
area. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible with lingering
instability and high dewpoints near the Lakes Sunday morning. Then,
surface based instability will develop ahead of the front. Stronger
winds aloft will support the potential for an isolated severe
thunderstorm with the highest probability from the western
Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes region/central NY. Forecast
soundings suggest damaging winds and large hail would be the
main hazards. Confidence remains low as guidance continues to
struggle with the overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
There remains a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms
Sunday night as the main trough axis swings through the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool and dry weather expected on Monday, then
turning warmer Tuesday, with the next chance for some unsettled
weather arriving by midweek.

An upper level trough will dig across the Northeast Monday, with
surface high pressure building across the area. A cool, northwest
flow will move into the forecast area with mean 850mb temperatures
falling to around +4C Monday. Because the airmass is very dry,
little lake response is expected. An upper level ridge will build
briefly across the Great Lakes region Monday night before flattening
out through mid-week. Warmer and more humid air will move back into
the region through mid-week. A frontal boundary may stall near the
forecast area and bring the potential for periods of showers and
thunderstorms through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Besides some cirrus across the western Southern Tier early this
morning, clear skies, light winds and dry weather will continue
across the region. VFR conditions are expected with the potential
for patchy fog in valley locations, however due to a nocturnal jet,
fog is less likely across KJHW early this morning.

Surface high pressure will move off the east coast today. South
winds will increase to 5-12 knots. A shortwave trough and a plume of
deep moisture will approach western NY today. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected generally between 15z to 18z
across western NY, shifting east through the evening hours.
Thunderstorms are mainly expected southeast of roughly KIAG to KART
line. MVFR ceilings are expected across the western Southern Tier
with low-end VFR ceilings spreading northward this afternoon.
Ceilings will lower to MVFR across north-central NY this evening.
Brief reductions in visibility are expected in any heavy showers or
thunderstorms through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
or below conditions expected.

Sunday night through Monday night...Mainly dry weather and VFR
expected. However, scattered lake-effect clouds and isolated
showers with MVFR are possible generally southeast and then
south of the eastern Great Lakes, especially between KROC and
KSYR, overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will cross the Northeast this morning,
providing mainly light winds with little to no wave action through
early this morning. Southerly flow will slowly increase today,
generally 10-12 knots or below, but up to 15 knots across eastern
Lake America. A brief period of marginal SCA conditions will be
possible across far eastern Lake America Saturday evening into the
first half of the overnight.

Flow will veer southwesterly, then westerly ahead of an approaching
cold front on Sunday with 10-15 knot winds producing increasingly
choppy conditions on both lakes, before winds freshen out of the
west and northwest in the wake of the cold frontal passage bringing
the potential for a period lower-end SCA conditions Sunday night
into Monday.

Surface high pressure will move across the region later Monday
through Monday night, providing light winds and little wave action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/77