830
FXUS61 KBUF 151328
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
928 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will be possible at times from the Southern Tier
northeastward to interior portions of the North Country, with dry
and uneventful weather otherwise expected through Monday. A warm
front will move northward Tuesday, ushering in warmer and
increasingly unsettled conditions through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patchy stratus lingers across much of the region this morning as a
frontal boundary remains stalled just to our south. This stratus
layer will gradually thin and lift from northwest to southeast with
diurnal heating and mixing. Temps will likely top out in the
upper 70s northeast of the lakes this afternoon, but be held
down several degrees where this thicker cloud cover hangs on
across the interior. While the day will be dry for most, an
inverted trough hanging over the region could allow for a few
stray showers at times.

The frontal boundary will remain to our south tonight with moisture
remaining trapped near the surface with another round of stratus
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian sourced high pressure just off the coast of Nova Scotia to
start the period, will slowly make its way east off into the North
Atlantic. This will allow the low level ridging stretching back west
from the center of the high to gradually weaken with time, leaving a
fairly neutral pattern in place for the first part of the new work
week. With no real synoptic forcing mechanism in place and only
limited moisture to work with, expecting a mainly dry Monday outside
of a few widely scattered light showers that may manage to
develop during the peak heating hours inland from the lakes.

Following a mainly dry Monday night, a shortwave trough will move
east into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will force a boundary
that has been stalled to our south over the Ohio Valley for some
time to start slowly moving back north as a warm front. A wing of
weak warm advection will push into the area ahead of the slowly
advancing surface boundary. This will not only enhance overall
forcing, it will also bring increasing moisture into our area. In
terms of sensible weather for Tuesday, this will mean a chance for a
few showers during the morning hours, before diurnal heating assists
with the development of better convection during the afternoon/early
evening hours. Synoptic southerly flow may be strong enough to keep
lake breeze circulations in check, and thus much of the area will be
fair game for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Do not
expect coverage to be very robust across the majority of the region,
however better chances for afternoon showers/storms will be found
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier where Likely PoPs
have been expanded a bit further north of the NY/PA line. Shortwave
trough will cross the area Tuesday night, while the surface warm
front continues to approach from the southwest. Loss of daytime
heating will help suppress diurnally driven convection through the
evening hours, however a few showers and an isolated storm or two
will still be possible owed to these aforementioned features.

Otherwise, it will start to feel a bit more like summer with temps a
bit above average, but more so will be a somewhat noticeable uptick
in humidity levels by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A phasing shortwave pattern will carve out a deeper longwave trough
across the Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday. A strengthening
wave of surface low pressure ahead of this trough tied to yet
another piece of shortwave energy, will track northeast from the
upper Midwest to Quebec in tandem. This will lift the warm front
through our area Wednesday, firmly placing the forecast area in the
warm sector, with much more summer-like air advecting into the
region. The increased heat, humidity, and instability will be
accompanied by stronger LLJ forcing that will boost chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the area. Details remain murky at
this range, mainly in regards to track of the low and timing of the
systems` attendant cold front, but the general setup could be
supportive of heavy rainfall and more robust convection should all
the parameters favorably align.

Overall activity should begin to wind down Thursday night, though
could be some lingering showers/isolated storms as the upstream
trough looks to hang back quite a bit, not crossing the region until
later Friday. There are indications that much stronger ridging (and
thus warmer and drier weather) may build across the central/eastern
CONUS over the weekend, especially by the latter half of the weekend
into the start of the new work week, though confidence is low in
this being preceded by some "ridge runner" shower/storm activity
through the weekend as the upper level ridge tries to build further
northward.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low stratus deck across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes this morning. Further north, cigs remaining in the 3-5K
foot range. Renewed diurnal heating and mixing will result in
improvement to higher-end MVFR/lower-end VFR across the Southern
Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes through the day today,
with VFR conditions prevailing elsewhere.

Outlook...

Tonight and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
especially southern portions of the area.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slide from Quebec to offshore of the Canadian
Maritimes today, while several waves of low pressure ripple along a
stalled out frontal zone across Ohio and Pennsylvania. The pressure
gradient between these features will maintain northeasterly winds on
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a moderate chop on both lakes.

As the high shifts further eastward tonight and Monday, winds will
veer southeasterly and weaken on both Lakes. The weakening and
offshore flow component will allow waves to subside, with little to
no chop expected for the start of the new work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/JJR/PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/PP
AVIATION...AR/JJR/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA