540
FXUS61 KBUF 051805
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
105 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy conditions and above normal temperatures
continue through this evening.

2) Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy conditions and above normal temperatures
continue through this evening.

As a slow moving upper level low moves across the Great Lakes
this afternoon, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten
behind a weak surface cold front. This combined with a 30 to 40
knot low-level jet will support gusty winds across the region
today. The strongest winds will focus northeast of Lake Erie,
where gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected. A slightly cooler
airmass will filter in behind the front, but will do little to
reduce temperatures across WNY, with low to mid 60s persisting.
Farther east, the airmass has not changed much yet, and with
some breaks of sun, temperatures will rise into the lower 70s
across the Finger Lakes and into mid CNY.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures Friday
through the weekend.

Upper level trough and closed low will move across the eastern
Great Lakes region Friday through Saturday, where an additional
cold front is progged to move across the region, supporting
temperatures to trend cooler for the end of the week and into
the weekend. The cooler weather combined with modest moisture
will support daytime shower activity. Additionally, cool wrap
around moisture on the backside of the surface low Friday night
through Saturday night will support lake enhanced showers
east/southeast of the lakes. Confidence in rain shower coverage
decreases Sunday and into the early next week as models diverge
in the evolution of the mid-level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak surface cold front continuing to press east across the region
early this afternoon. The front will exit into eastern New York
before 21z. A few showers continuing across central New York, but
will end with the frontal passage. CIGs for the most part MVFR/low
end VFR early this afternoon will improve to widespread VFR by mid
to late afternoon, with mainly SCT030-050 through the rest of the
daylight hours. Southwest winds will continue to 25-30 knots at KIAG
and KBUF through late afternoon with some potential of reach KROC.

Mostly dry weather along with diminishing winds expected tonight,
though a few showers may develop northeast of Lake Erie after 06Z
Friday.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers.

Saturday...Restrictions likely. Occasional showers.

Sunday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have shifted to the SW this morning behind a weak cold
front, and have strengthened to 15-20 kts with gusts +25
kts across eastern Lake Erie and western Lake America. Small
Craft Advisories are up for these areas, as well as the Niagara
River through early tonight.

Winds will diminish tonight as the surface low over Quebec elongates
and weakens. Another cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes
Friday supporting a colder mainly westerly wind behind the front,
where an extended period of small craft conditions will be likely
later this weekend into early next week.

There will also be a risk of waterspouts starting Friday and lasting
through the weekend with cold air aloft and the potential for lake
effect showers.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAL/SGK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...EAL/SGK