373
FXUS61 KBUF 190959
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
559 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The next round of thunderstorms is possible from Tuesday
through Tuesday night. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (1 of
5) and Slight Risk (2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms during this
time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler air filters into the region today.

2) The work week will begin seasonally warm and dry before the next
system brings chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Cooler air filters into the region today.

A cool airmass will build across the eastern Great Lakes region
today. A northerly flow with temperatures at 850mb falling to +9C by
this afternoon will support daytime highs in the low to mid 70s.
Lingering smoke will continue across the region and an Air Quality
Alert remains in effect for western and central NY today.

Key Message 2...The work week will begin seasonally warm and dry
before the next system brings chances for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday.

High pressure will move off the east coast Monday. A return flow
will bring warmer but still comfortable weather with temperatures in
the low to mid 80s and low humidity.

A shortwave trough will dig into the Great Lakes region becoming a
deep trough across the Northeast by Wednesday. Surface low pressure
will move from northern Ontario to south-central Quebec while
multiple frontal boundary`s move across the forecast area, bringing
periods of showers and thunderstorms. The potential exists for
destabilziation within a moist airmass Tuesday. The wind field
is expected to increase ahead of advancing cold front and strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible. The SPC Day 3 outlook
highlights a Marginal Risk across the North Country and a Slight
Risk across western and central NY Tuesday through Tuesday
night. A much cooler airmass is expected to move across the
region Wednesday through the end of the week, bringing lingering
showers and below normal temperatures. A much cooler airmass is
expected to move across the region Wednesday through the end of
the week, bringing lingering showers and below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cool northwest flow will support MVFR ceilings across parts of
western NY this morning. Widespread VFR conditions are
expected by this afternoon. Fog development is likely across the
valley locations tonight which may impact KJHW.

Outlook...

Monday...Fair weather and VFR expected. Lingering smoke possible.

Monday night and Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic showers
and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible with lingering showers.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds will continue on the Lakes behind the passage of a
cold front today. A Small Craft Advisory on Lake Ontario will
end by 10 AM this morning. High pressure will build across the
region today and continue through Monday with winds and waves
subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001-002-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK