032
FXUS61 KBUF 222323
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
723 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and cool weather is expected through the rest of the week,
with patchy frost possible across the North Country and western
Southern Tier at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool weather is expected through the rest of
the week, with patchy frost possible across the North Country and
western Southern Tier at times.

An upper level trough and closed low will slowly move east across
the Midwest to Ohio Valley through Wednesday night. The trough will
move off the east coast and a coastal low will develop late in the
week. High pressure will remain across eastern Canada, bringing
dry weather and continued easterly flow across the eastern
Great Lakes region though the work week.

Low level moisture within easterly flow will support diurnally-
driven clouds across the Niagara Frontier to the western Southern
Tier this afternoon. Deeper moisture and forcing will remain south
of the New York/Pennsylvania line and dry weather will continue
across the forecast area. An upper level ridge will build into
the region tonight while surface high pressure strengthens
across the Northeast. Mostly clear skies and light winds will
support another cool night with temperatures falling to the 40s,
upper 30s across the North Country. A light gradient wind is
expected to keep areas of frost from developing across the North
Country, however can`t rule out patchy frost in areas
susceptible to lower temperatures, mainly across the Black River
Valley in far southern Lewis county.

The surface high will move further into the region Wednesday night.
Clear skies and light winds will support favorable radiational
cooling conditions and result in another cool night across the
region. Temperatures in the 30s are likely across the Tug Hill
region and portions of the western Southern Tier, which may
Warren frost headlines. Low temperatures in the low to mid 40s
are expected across the lower elevations.

High temperatures will gradually increase day to day through the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather and mainly VFR are expected through 00Z/Thurs as a
surface ridge centered over southern QC continues to affect
Western and Central NY. Our regional surface winds trend
NE`erly to E`erly around 5 to 15 knots. Diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft
should allow these winds to gust up to 20 knots between ~15Z/Wed
and ~22Z/Wed.

Note: widespread cumuli resulting in ceilings near 3kft to 4kft
AGL over the Western Southern Tier are expected to dissipate by
01Z/Wed as the boundary layer stabilizes via nocturnal cooling.
Considerably clear sky, weak surface winds, and efficient
nocturnal cooling should yield localized steam mist/fog in the
river valleys of the Western Southern Tier and in the Black
River Valley of North-Central NY between ~07Z/Wed and ~13Z/Wed.
Winds increasing considerably with height in the surface to 2kft
AGL layer should cause this mist/fog to be shallow and prevent
the mist/fog from impacting KJHW.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Primarily dry weather and VFR
expected. However, localized river valley mist/fog and resulting
MVFR to LIFR are possible at and around daybreak on Thursday
through Sunday, inland from the eastern Great Lakes. In addition,
isolated rain showers with MVFR or worse are possible Saturday
night into Sunday, especially roughly along and east of the
Genesee River.

&&

.MARINE...
A moderate to fairly brisk northeast-east wind across the Lower
Great Lakes will continue to support small craft conditions with the
exception of the nearshore section from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River.

SCAs will become more confined to areas from Hamlin Beach to the
Niagara River by Wednesday as the flow veers more easterly. Any
lingering SCA-level conditions should then subside Wednesday night
as the surface ridge builds further southward and results in a
weakening of the pressure gradient across our region...along with a
commensurate lowering of winds and wave action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NYZ001-
     002.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for NYZ003-
     004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...HSK/JJR