052
FXUS61 KBUF 122333
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
733 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low slowly moving northward will cause additional clouds
and rain to spread to areas mainly east of the Genesee Valley
tonight into Monday. High pressure will then allow clearing
conditions to expand across the area from the west later Monday and
Monday night. A cold front Tuesday night will then bring a sharp
cooldown through midweek, though remaining mostly dry. Warmer but
unsettled weather then expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A complex synoptic scale pattern will then bring changeable weather
as it takes shape across eastern CONUS over the next few couple of
days. In the mid/upper levels, a closed 500mb low centered over the
Finger Lakes region this afternoon will retrograde westward before
taking a sharp southward turn towards the spine of the Appalachians
tonight into Monday morning. There it will increasingly interact
with an offshore low approaching the Delmarva from the Carolinas,
though the composite system will stall out through Monday as it runs
up against the aforementioned high still in place over New England.

While the vast majority of the impacts from this setup will be along
these coastal areas and across Southern New England, the resulting
east-northeasterly flow will advect a plume of Atlantic-based
moisture back into the region with increasing chances for showers
late tonight into Monday. Moderate confidence in remnant dry air
from the northeastern high and a secondary ridge building in from
the west keeping areas west of the Genesee Valley generally rain-
free through the period, with even a few breaks of sunshine Monday,
though a few stray showers cannot be completely ruled out late
tonight. Further east, rainfall amounts through Monday afternoon
will generally range from 0.1" near the Genesee Valley to 0.3"-0.5"
across the southern Tug Hill region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A broad low pressure system stalled just off the Mid-Atlantic
coastline Monday night will get increasingly pushed out to sea as a
strong mid-level ridge expands east across the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys to the Great Lakes through midweek. Any remnant showers
across the northern Finger Lakes and/or North Country associated
with the low will thus taper off by Tuesday morning, leaving
areawide dry weather through the rest of the day. Despite the light
north-northwesterly breeze, temperatures will recover back to warmer
than average levels Tuesday, very similar to those being observed
today.

A closed low moving east of Hudson Bay Tuesday night will be
followed by a secondary shortwave diving southeast across Ontario
Province. This will cause a sharp but dry cold front to move south
across the lakes Tuesday night, with the much cooler airmass
sticking around right through Thursday night. While a few lake
enhanced/upslope showers and clouds with the FROPA are possible
south of the lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the period
will otherwise remain dry.

850mb temps within this airmass will dip to their lowest around -4C
over the North Country, translating to sfc high temps in the 50s
Wednesday and Thursday, a few spots across the hilltops potentially
remaining in the 40s. Nighttime lows Wed/Thur night will likely dip
below freezing across the typical cold spots inland from the lakes,
with other areas largely in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The longwave pattern across the CONUS heading towards the end of the
week will be largely characterized by strong ridging east of the
Mississippi and along the West Coast, with troughing in between from
the Rockies to the Plains. As this pattern gradually shifts eastward
and the central trough sharpens, dry and seasonably cool weather
across the eastern Great Lakes Friday will yield to a warmer but
wetter pattern over the weekend. Confidence remains low in the
timing and amount of precip along an initial warm front and
evolution of the cold front that will follow, though at this
juncture the higher chances for rain appear to be in the second half
of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moisture is expected to return this evening from the east, with
thickening to the clouds, especially across eastern areas. While
the eastern TAF sites should remain dry through the night there will
be a chance for a few rain showers from the Finger Lakes/Mohawk
Valley region with MVFR flight conditions to spread northeastward
and reach KART late tonight and through midday tomorrow and will
have PROB30 to cover this potential. An area of low stratus clouds
near the state line and southern Finger Lakes will edge westward
late tonight and through the end of the TAF cycle, but this deck of
stratus will likely remain east of KJHW/KBUF and KROC.

Otherwise general easterly flow will back to northeasterly through
the TAF cycle, with speeds generally less than 15 knots.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon and night. MVFR to the east with rain showers
ending, VFR to the west.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of showers.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move north just offshore of the
eastern seaboard through Monday, while high pressure drifts from
Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient between
the two will produce moderate east/northeast winds on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario over the next few days. This will produce Small Craft
Advisory conditions on the western half of Lake Ontario into this
evening, and choppy conditions for the rest of Lake Ontario and
Lake Erie.

Choppy conditions will continue on both lakes Monday, with some
potential for low end Small Craft Advisory conditions if stronger
wind guidance verifies.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes Tuesday,
with winds becoming northwest and diminishing. These northwest winds
will then strengthen behind a strong cold front Tuesday night,
likely resulting in another round of SCA conditions through
Wednesday night on Lake Ontario. Choppy conditions are expected on
Lake Erie as well though confidence is lower in SCA criteria being
met during this timeframe.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PP/TMA
NEAR TERM...PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/PP/TMA