Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
896 FXUS61 KBUF 040749 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 349 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry but a few showers will be possible through tonight. 2) Below average temperatures expected Monday, widespread frost likely Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry but a few showers will be possible through tonight. Mainly dry weather will continue ahead of a sharp cold front approaching the Lower Lakes today, although a few showers can`t be ruled out. It will be a bit warmer as southerly flow helps to nudge temperatures up into the 60s for most locales. Tonight...a potent shortwave tracking across James Bay will send a sharp cold front through the eastern Great Lakes. With the front expect some additional showers to work through the region overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures expected Monday, widespread frost likely Monday night. A cooler airmass will settle in behind the front with 850 mb temperatures dropping just below zero C (-1C to -3C) by Monday evening. Given the chilly airmass aloft moving across the warm lake waters and some limited remaining shallow moisture it is likely we will see some lake induced clouds and maybe even a few showers as the trough axis pivots through the region The main story though will be the early fall chill in the air on Monday, with afternoon highs only expected in the upper 40s to 50s. It will also be quite breezy Monday, with winds gusting up to 35 mph in areas. Surface high pressure moving nearly overhead Monday night will allow temperatures to bottom out in the 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the coldest inland locations. A widespread frost looks likely during this period. High pressure will maintain dry weather through atleast midweek and will also support a modest warming trend. Expected high temperatures to rebound to near normals with mid to upper 60s across the region by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR flight conditions through this morning. A narrow plume of deeper moisture across the Central Great Lakes will clip the TAF region midday today. While flight conditions are likely to remain VFR, this moisture/clouds may bring a brief period of BKN low VFR ceiling heights, especially across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Tonight...a sharp cold front will track through the region overnight which may bring some lower MVFR-IFR ceilings and showers. With its passage expect VFR to return to area terminals. Outlook... Monday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible southeast of the lake. Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Morning valley fog restrictions possible, especially along/near the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North- Central NY. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers east of Lake America. && .MARINE... A cold front nearing the Lower Lakes today will bring freshening south to southwest flow today. The cold front will track through the lakes tonight bringing a round of solid Small Craft Advisory conditions through Monday night. Conditions will improve Tuesday through Wednesday with a weakening pressure gradient as high pressure moves over the eastern Great Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR