259
FXUS61 KBUF 111056
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
656 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening low pressure will move to Lake Erie today but will
support some showers through Monday. Dry weather returns
Tuesday and then last through much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A compact mid-level shortwave and sfc low will track from Lake Huron
to the western end of Lake Erie today. Increasing moisture and
ascent will bring ever increasing cloud cover from west to east
and chances for some scattered showers. That said...even where
we do see some showers there will also be plenty of dry time.

Otherwise...a range in temperatures will be felt across the region
today, upper 50s to low 60s will be found across the Niagara
Frontier/Southern Tier. Further east...less cloud coverage will
allow for warmer readings with highs in the mid to upper 60s, even a
few spots may touch 70F.

Tonight...the sfc low continues to weaken/fade away but guidance
suggest an injection of Atlantic moisture within the east-southeast
flow. This will keep the chance for some showers across parts of the
region, focused this time across the Finger Lakes region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A complex forecast scenario will continue to unfold Sunday through
Monday. A mid level closed low will become trapped within the weak
flow regime of a broad ridge over the Northeast US, with the
circulation center forecast to remain over or near Western NY
through the period. Meanwhile, an elongated coastal low just
offshore of the Carolinas Sunday will drift north to just offshore
of the Delmarva Monday. Persistent easterly flow will transport
Atlantic moisture onshore to the north of this system, with more
significant impacts of wind and rain along the eastern seaboard. Our
region will be on the western fringe of this system, with forecast
uncertainty continuing with regards to western advance of the rain
early next week.

Sunday, an area of lingering deep moisture and weak convergence near
a low level inverted trough may still support a few light showers
through the first half of the day across Western and Central NY,
with dry weather for the North Country. A pocket of dry air
associated with high pressure over Quebec will then drift southeast
into the area Sunday afternoon, with most areas trending mainly dry.

Sunday night through Monday forecast uncertainty continues as
Atlantic moisture is pushed westward by persistent easterly onshore
flow north of the coastal low. Individual deterministic runs and
ensembles show a variety of solutions with regards to the western
extent of rain. Overall, expect a better chance of rain over Central
NY, and lowest over Western NY and near the Saint Lawrence further
removed from the feed of Atlantic moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coastal low along the east coast will be pushed rapidly out to
sea Tuesday as the next sharp trough moves east across Ontario and
Quebec. This will bring a return to dry weather in our region. This
trough will then dig south across Quebec and New England Wednesday
through Thursday as the mid latitude wave train across North America
amplifies, carving out a deep trough by the middle of the week. A
cold front will surge south across the eastern Great Lakes and New
England Wednesday. Moisture will be limited along the front, with
just a low chance of a few light showers late Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

The cold front will usher in another chilly airmass for the second
half of next week. Highs will likely be in the 50s Wednesday through
Friday, with more frost/freeze potential at night. It will be dry
most of the time, although there could be a few spotty light lake
effect and upslope showers at times. The trough axis will progress
off the east coast by next weekend, which should support a warming
trend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A compact mid-level low and corresponding weakening surface low will
move to the western end of Lake Erie today bringing with it some
scattered showers to the region. As the low nears...CIGs of
3500-4500 will over time develop across far western terminals by
late this afternoon. However...the vast majority of TAF sites
will continue to see VFR today.

Tonight...additional moisture transported within the east-southeast
flow may bring some lower CIGS (MVFR-IFR) to parts of the S.
Tier/Genesee Valley. Although...VFR will more than `likely` persist
across TAF sites.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will produce a period of modest chop on the lakes
with Small Craft conditions on the northeast end of Lake Ontario
through this morning. Winds will diminish and then become easterly
later today through tonight. With the low moving over Lake Erie
today, there will be the potential for some waterspouts within any
showers.

Winds may become elevated enough Sunday through Monday to
potentially warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions on the central
and western portions of Lake Ontario. Winds gradually lighten Monday
night and then remain light into the day Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR