484
FXUS61 KBUF 302237
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
637 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control over the Great Lakes through
the first half of next week, providing an extended period of dry
weather for the Labor Day holiday weekend. Cool night will give way
to mostly sunny, warm afternoons with a day to day warming trend
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level closed low over New England this evening will open up
into a wave and move away overnight, with lingering influence east
of Lake Ontario coming to an end.

A patch of clouds and even a few sprinkles or light showers is
crossing the eastern Lake Ontario region this evening. These clouds
will persist through mid to late evening before clearing overnight.
Elsewhere, diurnal cumulus across the higher terrain of the Southern
Tier will dissipate after sunset, while a patch of dense cirrus
drifts southeast across far Western NY through the first half of the
night. Skies will clear areawide by late tonight.

Clearing skies and nearly calm winds will promote efficient
radiational cooler through early Sunday morning. With overnight lows
overachieving this morning, leaning towards the lower end of the NBM
distribution, especially across the Southern Tier where Sunday
morning temperatures may drop into the mid-30s briefly across some
of the coolest valleys, with upper 30s to lower 40s more common.
There may be some light, patchy frost in a few spots, but coverage
will not be enough to justify an advisory. Expect typical river
valley fog as well across the Southern Tier late tonight and Sunday
morning.

After the cool start, daytime temperatures on Sunday will be ~5 degF
warmer than Saturday as 850mb temps begin to approach 10 degC. This
will translate to low to mid 70s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
During this period broad/weak upper level troughing will be in place
aloft...while surface-based ridging initially sprawled across New
York State gradually settles off the New England coastline. While
some guidance packages (most notably the NAM/GFS) try to develop
some instability showers across northern NY (along and just east of
the upper trough axis) Tuesday afternoon...this looks overdone and
has therefore been disregarded for now...with fair dry weather thus
expected to continue to prevail throughout this period. Otherwise
continued gradual airmass modification will allow the slow day-to-
day warming trend to persist...with highs mostly ranging through the
70s both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During the remainder of the week upper-level ridging will amplify
across western North America...while downstream a deepening upper-
level trough will once again overspread the Great Lakes and
Northeast. Meanwhile at the surface...an attendant...elongated
surface low and cold front will make their way east and across our
region...with forcing and moisture return along/ahead of this
boundary currently looking sufficient for another round of fairly
numerous showers...and perhaps a couple embedded thunderstorms
depending upon its timing.

Speaking of which...the various guidance packages continue to
exhibit quite a bit of spread with respect to the timing of this
next system...with this likely to be a function of just how much
phasing occurs with a possible southern stream trough/surface wave.
This results in an envelope of possibilities ranging from Wednesday
night/Thursday on the fast end to Friday/Friday night on the slow
end...with the consensus currently lying somewhere in the Thursday/
Thursday night time frame. Given the resulting uncertainty...have
leaned more toward the latter and have capped PoPs in the likely
range for now.

What is more certain is that the gradual warming trend from earlier
in the week will be brought to an abrupt halt by the passage of this
system...with the much cooler airmass following in its wake driving
temps back to notably below normal levels by the end of the week/
start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An area of VFR clouds and scattered light showers east of Lake
Ontario will continue through mid to late evening before
dissipating. A patch of dense cirrus will also drift southeast
across the far western end of NY state through the first half of the
night, with a general trend of clearing areawide late tonight.
Expect typical river valley fog across the Southern Tier late
tonight through Sunday morning with local LIFR. Some of this will
likely impact KJHW.

The valley fog will burn off by mid morning, leaving VFR to prevail
Sunday with scattered diurnal cumulus with VFR bases inland from
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario midday through afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river valley fog
each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

Thursday...MVFR with rain showers and gusty winds along a cold
frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerlies will continue to bring low end Small Craft
Advisory conditions this evening to the east end of Lake Ontario,
with choppy conditions farther west on Lake Ontario.

With high pressure will then build into the region, and winds and
waves will diminish overnight. High pressure will then settle over
the eastern Great Lakes Sunday through Labor Day with light winds
and flat wave action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ005>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/SW
NEAR TERM...Brothers/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/SW