974
FXUS61 KBUF 122348
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
748 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Turning more humid with a few rounds of showers and scattered
thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday evening.

2) Brief cooldown Monday through early Tuesday morning, then
trending warmer again through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Turning more humid with a few rounds of showers and
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday evening.

A southern stream shortwave will move from the Ohio Valley this
evening northeastward across NY/PA overnight. DPVA ahead of the
shortwave will combine with isentropic upglide and moisture
transport in a general warm advection pattern to support an area of
showers crossing the region from southwest to northeast from mid
afternoon through this evening. The most concentrated area of rain
will likely track from the western Southern Tier into the Finger
Lakes and Tug Hill region later this afternoon through this evening,
with the Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown areas all near the
northwest edge of the more widespread rain. Instability will be
limited, but may be sufficient to support a few widely scattered
weak thunderstorms as well. Some heavy downpours will likely cross
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, but the more organized flood
risk will likely remain south of the area across PA.

Overnight, the initial shortwave will move into eastern NY and New
England, with most of the showers ending from west to east. The one
exception may be across the North Country, where a few light showers
may linger through much of the night.

Sunday morning will be dry in most areas, with just a few scattered
light showers possible across the North Country. A strong northern
stream trough will advance southeast into the Great Lakes, with a
surface cold front approaching the eastern Great Lakes by evening.
Height falls will bring increasing large scale ascent near the time
of peak heating, although instability will only be modest. Expect
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop mid afternoon through mid
evening. The initial focus for convective initiation will be along
lake breeze boundaries, with the incoming front then possibly
capturing convection and moving it southeast across the area during
the early to mid evening. Coverage of thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening will likely remain widely scattered, with plenty of rain
free time.

A few storms may contain gusty winds, with a marginal risk of a few
isolated severe thunderstorms with localized damaging winds and
hail. Moderate to strong shear profiles will be more than adequate
to support severe thunderstorms, but weak instability and poor mid
level lapse rates will be a notable limiting factor.

Sunday night, any thunderstorms will end in the evening. A brief
period of upslope and lake effect showers southeast of the lakes may
develop right behind the cold front from late evening through the
early overnight, but a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will
bring a quick end to any lake response by Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Brief cooldown Monday through early Tuesday morning,
then trending warmer again through the middle of next week.

A much cooler airmass will arrive Monday behind the departing cold
front, with 850MB temps bottoming out in the +4C to +6C range. Highs
will range from the mid to upper 60s for lower elevations to lower
60s across higher terrain. Northwest flow will support some lake
effect and upslope clouds in the morning, but strong subsidence and
drying will allow for increasing sunshine later in the afternoon.

Monday night will be chilly, with lows dropping into the 40s
areawide except the immediate lakeshores. Some of the normally
cooler Southern Tier valleys and Tug Hill region may make a run at
the upper 30s.

High pressure will drift off the New England coast by Tuesday, with
southerly return flow in its wake allowing for a quick warm-up
Tuesday through midweek. Latest model guidance suggests Tuesday will
stay mainly dry, with rain chances returning by Wednesday as a
frontal boundary moves into the Great Lakes and potentially stalls
nearby by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Aloft, SW`erly to W`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect
Western and Central NY through 00Z/Mon. At the surface, trough
axes associated with the aforementioned disturbances will sweep
generally E`ward through our region. A cold front should begin
to sweep E`ward across Western NY after ~17Z/Sun and near the
I-81 corridor by 00Z/Mon. Behind the front, a ridge builds
slowly from the Upper Midwest. Our regional surface winds will
be around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period. Ahead of the
cold front, winds will vary between SW`erly and W`erly due to
the passage of each aforementioned surface trough axis. Behind
the cold front, NW`erly winds are expected.

Widespread low clouds are expected through the TAF period and
ceilings should vary between primarily 5kft AGL and IFR.
Periodic and isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the surface trough
axes and cold front. In addition, scattered rain showers may
develop along the upper-reaches of the cold front and linger for
several hours following the surface front passage. Brief
downpours and MVFR to LIFR are possible with showers and
especially thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce
brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots late
Sunday morning and especially during the afternoon through early
evening.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Showers ending from northwest to southeast. Areas of
MVFR CIGS continue overnight, with some IFR CIGS possible
across the higher terrain.

Monday through Monday night...Dry weather expected. Areas of
MVFR CIGS with lake-effect clouds Monday morning, then
improving to VFR.

Tuesday...Dry weather expected. Localized MVFR to LIFR in early
morning valley fog across the Western Southern Tier. Otherwise
VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move slowly east from Hudson Bay east across
Quebec through Sunday, with a trailing cold front crossing the lower
Great Lakes Sunday evening. Southerly winds will remain elevated
tonight, and then gradually veer to the southwest and west through
the day Sunday. The greatest winds and wave action will be found
offshore of Jefferson County tonight, but the southerly flow will
keep most of the 4+ foot waves in the open waters beyond the
nearshore zone.

Northwest winds will increase in the wake of the cold front late
Sunday night through Monday, likely bringing Small Craft Advisory
conditions to portions of the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Hitchcock