648
FXUS61 KBUF 250624
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
224 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The potential for periodic rain showers in North-Central NY has
increased somewhat this Monday. Periodic rain showers are
possible region-wide this Thursday into Thursday night. Please
see discussion below for the details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather is expected during the majority of this week.
However, periodic rain showers are expected in North-Central NY
this Monday. Periodic rain showers are possible region-wide this
Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather is expected during the majority of
this week. However, periodic rain showers are expected in
North-Central NY this Monday. Periodic rain showers are
possible region-wide this Thursday into Thursday night.

Aloft, a ridge continues to build from the western Great Lakes
this morning and then settles over the Northeast United States
and vicinity this afternoon through tonight. At the surface,
the ridge continues to affect our region as the embedded high
pressure center wobbles generally SSW`ward from near Lake
Champlain to the Mid-Atlantic states. Dry weather persists in
our CWA as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Clear
sky gives way to increasing cloud cover, especially in the
mid/upper-levels, this afternoon through tonight as moist
isentropic ascent precedes the axes of shortwave troughs
embedded in primarily W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft. Lows should
reach the mid 20`s to upper 30`s around daybreak this morning
as clear sky, weak or calm surface winds, and low humidity
promote efficient radiational cooling. Warmer highs in the
upper 50`s to upper 60`s are expected this late afternoon and
should be followed by overnight lows mainly in the mid 30`s to
upper 40`s around daybreak Monday as the WAA regime strengthens
somewhat along the western flank of the low-level ridge.

On Monday, cyclonic W`erly to WNW`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave troughs are expected to impact our region. Variable
amounts of mainly mid/upper-level cloudiness are expected amidst
moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes. At
the surface, the aforementioned ridge will exit generally
SE`ward and be followed by the SE`ward passage of a weak cold
front during the late morning through early afternoon. A rather
dry low-level atmospheric column should permit a dry cold front
passage across most of our CWA. However, forcing for ascent
along the front should coincide with sufficient low-level
moisture and permit the development of isolated to scattered
and light rain showers across North-Central NY. Behind the
front, another high pressure ridge builds from central Canada
and vicinity. Afternoon highs should reach mainly the mid 50`s
to mid 60`s.

During Monday night through Tuesday night, the surface ridge
will continue to affect our region as the embedded high pressure
center moves from northern ON toward northern New England,
while the ridge aloft builds from the Upper Midwest to the
eastern Great Lakes. Dry weather is expected as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the ridge. Low-level CAA behind Monday`s
cold front passage will contribute to lows reaching mainly the
lower 20`s to mid 30`s around daybreak Tuesday and highs
reaching mainly the 40`s to 50`s late Tuesday afternoon. Weak or
calm surface winds, low humidity, and sufficient cloud breaks
are expected to permit efficient radiational cooling very late
Tuesday afternoon through daybreak Wednesday, when lows should
reach mainly the lower 20`s to mid 30`s. On Wednesday through
Wednesday night, the ridge at the surface and aloft should exit
E`ward and allow a warm front starved of low-level moisture to
sweep NE`ward through our region and usher-in a somewhat warmer
air mass. Fair weather is expected to persist. Late afternoon
highs should reach the lower 50`s to lower 60`s in North-Central
NY and the upper 50`s to upper 60`s elsewhere in our CWA.
Thereafter, overnight lows should reach the mid 30`s to mid 40`s
in North-Central NY and the lower 40`s to lower 50`s elsewhere
in our CWA around daybreak Thursday.

Note: Clear sky or sufficient cloud breaks and weak or calm
surface winds should contribute to localized steam fog in the
Black River Valley, Western Southern Tier river valleys, and the
lake valleys of the Finger Lakes Region during the predawn
hours through about 10 AM EDT today through Wednesday, respectively.

W`erly to WNW`erly flow aloft and a series of attendant troughs
and ridges at the surface and aloft should affect our region
this Thursday through Saturday. Current odds favor primarily
dry weather as ridging should affect Western and Central NY
during the majority of the time period. However, a weak cold
front should sweep E`ward through our region Thursday night.
Periodic rain showers are possible along and ahead of this front
on Thursday into Thursday night due to moist isentropic ascent
ahead of a shortwave trough axis aloft and low-level
convergence/ascent along the front coinciding with sufficient
low-level moisture. Unusually-mild weather for late October is
expected courtesy of the largely zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather and mainly VFR are expected through 06Z/Mon as a
surface ridge affects Western and Central NY, and the embedded
high pressure center wobbles SSW`ward from near Lake Champlain
to the Mid-Atlantic States. Our regional surface winds should
trend SE`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 10 knots through the TAF
period, but these winds should become calm periodically through
shortly after daybreak this morning and again this evening
through 06Z/Mon.

Clear to mainly clear sky and weak or calm surface winds should
contribute to localized steam fog with MVFR to LIFR in the
Black River Valley, Western Southern Tier river valleys, and
lake valleys of the Finger Lakes Region through ~14Z/Sun and
again from ~03Z/Mon through 06Z/Mon. This fog may impact KART at
times. An unfavorable vertical wind profile in the lowest 2kft
AGL is expected to prevent fog from impacting KJHW.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Wednesday...Mainly dry weather and VFR
expected. However, a cold front passage should be accompanied
by isolated to scattered rain showers with brief MVFR on Monday,
especially in North-Central NY. In addition, localized flight
restrictions are possible each late evening through about mid-
morning due to river valley and inland lake fog.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly dry weather and VFR
expected. However, periodic rain showers are possible this
Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will become SSW overnight through Sunday on both lakes, with a
light chop developing mainly in offshore waters.

A cold front will approach the lower Great Lakes Sunday night
through Monday, with southwest winds increasing further and bringing
a moderate chop to both lakes. The cold front will cross the area by
Monday afternoon, with winds veering to the northwest late Monday
and then northeast Monday night. A brief period of low end Small
Craft Advisory conditions is possible Monday night through Tuesday
morning in some areas before winds diminish Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Hitchcock