584
FXUS61 KBUF 130006
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
806 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms across western NY this
evening. A few storms may be severe with strong winds and hail.

2) Mostly dry weather late this week with showers and thunderstorms
looking to return Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms across western
NY this evening. A few storms may be severe with strong winds and
hail.

Latest satellite and radar imagery shows widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms across southern Ontario to west-central NY this
evening. Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE decreasing to less than 1000 J/kg
with effective shear 30-40knots. A shortwave trough will move across
the region this evening. Hi-res ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS)
suggest storm potential will continue this evening for the Niagara
Frontier across to the northern Finger Lakes region. The western
Southern Tier may see storms remain in the area through midnight.
Lingering showers may remain into early Thursday morning before
turning mostly dry throughout the remainder of the day as high
pressure begins to build into the upper Great Lakes.

Key Message 2...Mostly dry weather late this week with showers and
thunderstorms looking to return Sunday.

After mostly dry weather Friday and Saturday, a low pressure system
will track across northern Ontario early Sunday with a trailing cold
front that may bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms to
western and north-central NY. The timing of this low is still quite
uncertain owning to the ~50% PoPs lasting throughout much of the
day. While the severe convective environment appears better farther
south and west, latest model trends has begun to shift the axis of
greater instability north into the western Southern Tier.
Additionally, lingering upstream convection from Saturday night
across the Midwest will be another factor. Afterwards, high
pressure will build back into the Great Lakes with drier weather
for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak mid level shortwave passing through the northwest flow aloft
will interact with weak instability and residual boundaries to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid-evening. The
best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be across Western NY
and the Finger Lakes. Any storms will be capable of brief/local IFR
conditions, gusty winds, and small hail. Outside of thunderstorms,
VFR will prevail in most areas with some MVFR CIGS across the higher
terrain of the western Southern Tier.

Areas of IFR in low stratus and fog will develop across the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes, with some VLIFR possible. Low stratus or fog
may develop further north across the lake plains, however
confidence is low. Elsewhere, expect mainly VFR conditions for lower
elevations and east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday, a somewhat drier airmass will build into the eastern Great
Lakes and allow for mainly dry weather to prevail. A few scattered
showers and thunderstorms may develop across the Saint Lawrence
valley in the afternoon and early evening in closer proximity to a
deepening trough across Quebec. Areas of IFR in fog and low stratus
across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes will dissipate by mid to
late morning, with VFR elsewhere.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Local/brief
IFR possible in storms.

Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a few lingering scattered
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
An overall weak pressure gradient is expected to remain in place
through the remainder of the work week, with no more than mainly
light to gentle breezes expected, although a modest uptick in
northerly flow later Thursday night into Friday may bring some light
to moderate chop across Lake Ontario.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may
produce strong winds and locally higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...Brothers/JM