583
FXUS61 KBUF 020620
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
220 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from the possibility of a few widely scattered showers this
afternoon, dry and comfortable weather will continue through midweek
as high pressure slowly drifts eastward and off the New England
coastline. A pair of cold fronts will then bring fairly widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday, followed by unsettled
weather and cooling temperatures later Friday into the weekend.
Winds will also become quite breezy with these frontal passages
Thursday and again on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The core of a weak upper-level low evident on WV satellite imagery
over NYS early this morning will slowly drift northward into
southern ON/QC through tonight. High pressure ridging in the lower
levels from the Canadian Maritimes to the Great Lakes will
concurrently shrink closer to the East Coast. While seasonably warm
and mostly dry weather should prevail as a result of the latter,
with cooler air lingering aloft from the former a few diurnally
driven showers or even a thunderstorm or two may develop this
afternoon. Chances for this look greatest across the Tug Hill region
and St. Lawrence Valley where mid-level lapse rates will be a bit
steeper, with perhaps some widely scattered activity inland from the
lake breezes across WNY.

Any shower activity should quickly taper off with the setting sun
this evening. A gentle southerly breeze developing around the
eastern high will lead to slightly milder temps compared to the
previous couple of nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will be in place for Wednesday to start the period as
weak ridging crosses the area. Partly to mostly sunny skies can be
expected. Winds will start to increase some out of the south later
in the day. Temperatures for Wednesday will warm to the low 70s to
low 80s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations,
respectively.

A large vertically stacked low will stall near James Bay from
Thursday morning through Friday night. This will bring the next
round of rain to the region as its first of two cold fronts tracks
across the area from mid morning through the afternoon on Thursday.
This will bring an organized line of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms across the area. Rain will be heavy at times as the
line crosses the area and as smaller waves of low pressure tracks
north along the front. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.00" can be
expected for most area, with some localized higher amounts possible.
The fairly quick nature of the front should limit the rainfall to
those values, but if the front is a bit slower, then those rainfall
amounts will be higher. Winds will also increase ahead of the front
with increasing pressure gradient and as a llj moves over the area,
which will also help with the forcing for the rain. Wind gusts to at
least 30 mph look increasingly likely for Thursday. High
temperatures ahead of the front on Thursday will range from the mid
60s across the far southwestern portion of the area to near 80 for
the eastern portions of the area. Cooler temperatures in the low 70s
will be possible for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Showers will taper off from west to east early Thursday evening
through around midnight Thursday night behind the passing front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The vertically stacked system up by James Bay will slowly start to
track northeast through Saturday. But another cold front associated
with the system will track across the region on Friday evening as a
potent shortwave and sfc low get rapped into the larger scale
trough. This will send another round of showers across the area with
the passing cold front. Some timing issues still among guidance this
far out as well as strength of the passing front and the overall
rainfall amounts. Winds will once again increase ahead of and along
this front through the day on Friday, becoming weaker behind the
front. Elevated winds will still be possible on the lakes in the CAA
regime into the weekend.

Behind the passing cold front, cooling temperatures aloft and
cyclonic flow over the region will result in lake enhanced/effect
rain showers downwind of the lakes through at least Sunday night.
Some guidance continues the lake showers a little longer into the
start of next week with the associated trough a little slower to
push out of the region. High pressure will briefly push into the
region, bringing a dry day or two at the start of next week, before
the next system and round of showers approaches.

Temperatures will be near to a few degrees below normal to start the
period, with day-to-day cooling through the weekend to further
below. As high pressure shifts east of the area early next week,
temperatures will increase some, but still remain near to below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR weather will prevail through the 06z TAF cycle as a weak upper
level low pressure drifts north of the region. A wealth of mid/high
cloud cover associated with this low creeping into the region will
move in tandem and largely shift north of the TAF sites by late
morning. There remains a possibility of valley fog in the Southern
Tier through 12z though impacts at KJHW are not expected.

VFR diurnal cumulus will likely develop this afternoon inland from
developing lake breezes. A few widely scattered showers or a
thunderstorm may be possible across Western NY or the North Country
as cooler air remains aloft, though chances appear far too low to
warrant PROB30s at any site at this time. Any precipitation that
manages to develop will diminish by this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river
valley fog possible across the Southern Tier.

Thursday...MVFR with rain showers and gusty winds along a cold
frontal passage.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers and
gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally elevated offshore winds around 10kts will be possible near
the Lake Erie shoreline through about mid-morning. Otherwise, light
winds and minimal waves are expected through midweek as high
pressure drifts east and off the New England coastline.

A cold front will then cross the area between Thursday and Thursday
night...with increasing southerlies to southwesterlies expected out
ahead of the front Thursday...and fairly brisk southwesterlies to
westerlies following in its wake Friday and Saturday. Eastern
portions of Lake Erie and western Ontario could see conditions reach
low-end SCA criteria for a time Thursday...with more widespread
advisory-level conditions then appearing more likely Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...JJR/PP