501
FXUS61 KBUF 162336
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
736 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Summertime heat and humidity will continue through Thursday, along
with a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the
greatest coverage of storms expected through this evening from the
Southern Tier into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes, and Thursday
east of  Lake Ontario. While a few storms may produce localized
gusty winds and heavy rainfall, other areas may receive little or no
rain with very uneven coverage. Following the passage of a cold
front, drier and cooler air will then overspread our region for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing the most organized showers and thunderstorms
across the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes this evening, in
the DPVA regime ahead of a convectively augmented shortwave. This
shortwave will continue to move northeast overnight, supporting an
area of showers and scattered thunderstorms moving gradually
northeast across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region.
Overall, expect a general weakening trend overnight with diurnal
cooling, but a few storms may still produce gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

Farther west, broad/weak ascent ahead of another shortwave and
associated surface low will maintain clouds and a chance of showers
and isolated thunder overnight, but expect coverage to be less than
farther east.

Cold front advances into the region Thursday. Another round
convection expected, primarily for the eastern half of the area.
Main threat looks to be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall in a very moist environment ahead of the front. Front
shifts southeast of the area Thursday night, lessening chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large area of Canadian sourced high pressure builds in behind the
cold front bringing a much cooler and drier change to our airmass on
Friday, with 850mb temps briefly falling to around +10C. Afternoon
highs topping out in the 70s, surface dew points solidly in the 50s,
and a light northerly breeze will make for a pleasantly refreshing
end to the work week. High pressure slides east right over the area
Friday night. Mainly cloud-free skies and light winds, along with a
less humid airmass in place will allow for a very comfortable night
with lows generally in the 50s. Upper 40s possible across the Tug
Hill/western Dacks and closer to 60F along the lakeshores.

High pressure slides east of the area on Saturday, making way for a
warm front over the Ohio Valley associated with an area of low
pressure located over the mid/upper Mississippi Valley to approach
from the southwest, bringing increasing chances for a few showers
and storms Saturday afternoon, mainly from the Finger Lakes region
westward. Weak southerly return flow on the back side of the high
will boost temps and humidity levels some, however conditions will
remain very tolerable for being just about to the climatologically
warmest time of the year with highs ranging from the upper 70s to
lower/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure and associated warm front quickly scoot east, crossing
the Lower Great Lakes Saturday night, then into New England by
Sunday. Increasing lift and moisture with these features will bring
areawide high Chc to Lkly PoPs for some showers and a few storms
Saturday night. Chances for a few showers/storms will linger into
Sunday as the lagging mid level trough passes across the area.
However, a general west to east drying trend is expected through the
afternoon.

Next area of Canadian sourced high pressure builds in Sunday night
bringing dry weather along with another batch of refreshingly cooler
and less humid conditions to start the new work week. High pressure
slides east of the area on Tuesday, but should keep dry weather
intact through the bulk of the day. Another warm front
approaches/moves into the area toward mid week, bringing the next
threat for unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level shortwave will continue to support an organized area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms, moving from the Southern Tier
and Finger Lakes this evening to Central NY and the eastern Lake
Ontario region overnight. Expect intensity and coverage of thunder
to gradually wane overnight with the loss of diurnal heating.
Farther west, broad/weak ascent ahead of another mid level shortwave
and associated surface low will support a few more scattered showers
an isolated thunder overnight, with less coverage than farther east.

Areas of MVFR CIGS will develop overnight across Western NY, with
some IFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and western
Finger Lakes.

Thursday, a cold front will move east across the area with a few
more showers and scattered thunderstorms. The best coverage will be
found east of Lake Ontario, with Western NY trending mainly dry by
late afternoon as the cold front sweeps east. Areas of MVFR CIGS and
IFR across higher terrain will persist through late morning before
improving to mainly VFR in the afternoon.

It will become quite windy Thursday, with gusts of 20-25 knots
areawide and 30-35 knots northeast of Lake Erie ahead and along the
advancing cold front.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Localized IFR possible in fog
each late night and early morning.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms and
associated brief restrictions.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light to modest winds (at or below 10 knots) will prevail
through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop, with
locally higher winds and waves possible near any storms.

A cold front will approach the area Thursday, then will cross Lakes
Erie and Ontario Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest winds
will increase markedly ahead of the cold front Thursday, then will
become northwest following the passage of the front Thursday night
and Friday. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on
both lakes Thursday through Thursday night...with calmer conditions
then returning on Friday as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ005>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday
         for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA