361
FXUS61 KBUF 291743
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little has changed with the forecast today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy rain and isolated areas of flash flooding are possible
across north central NY through early tonight.

2) Increasingly drier conditions return for the end of the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Heavy rain and isolated areas of flash flooding are
possible across north central NY through early tonight.

An upper level low will remain nearly stationary over western New
England through tonight, with an occluded and slow moving surface
low slowly moving up the southern New England coast. A pronounced
trough will linger NE of the surface low up through the St. Lawrence
valley, which will provide the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening. Eventually, this trough will
weaken as is slides southwestward towards the Finger Lakes tonight.

Diurnal heating will enhance shower and thunderstorm development
through this evening, while high PWATs (1.5-1.75") and a tall warm
cloud layer will promote efficient heavy downpours. The main area of
concern will be from the eastern Finger Lakes up to the St. Lawrence
Valley. Here an addtional 1-2" of rain will be possible, with
isolated pockets of up to 4" of rain possible, which will bring the
potential for isolated flash flooding.

Rain showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage late this
evening with loss of heating, and precipitation chances will slowly
fall overnight.

Key Message 2...Increasingly drier conditions return for the end of
the work week.

Tomorrow and Friday, the low pressure system at the surface and
aloft will exit gradually NE`ward toward the Canadian Maritimes.
Simultaneously, the aforementioned surface ridge and the portion of
the ridge aloft will continue to build from the western Great Lakes
and vicinity so that by late Friday, the surface ridge axis should
become located near Long Island and Lake Champlain. While lingering
low-level moisture, renewed diurnal heating, and weak boundary layer
destabilization may support self-destructive sunshine in the form of
isolated to scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development
roughly along and east of the Genesee River Valley on Thursday,
stabilizing subsidence accompanying the building ridge will yield
fair weather CWA-wide late Thursday evening through Friday. Given
the projected weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft,
weak low-level CAA through Thursday night is expected to transition
to weak low-level WAA on the synoptic scale by Friday.

Late afternoon highs tomorrow should reach the 70`s to 80F.
Considerable clearing of sky, lower humidity at/near the
surface, and weak surface winds should permit efficient
radiational cooling and allow lows to reach mainly the 50`s to
lower 60`s around daybreak Friday. River valley steam fog is
expected around daybreak in the Western Southern Tier, Finger
Lakes, and the Saint Lawrence and Black River Valleys. With the
departure of the low aloft and its associated cool pool, high
temperatures should recover to seasonable levels (upper 70`s to
lower 80`s) areawide by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Surface low pressure near far eastern NYS this afternoon will begin
to pivot towards southern New England tonight. Moisture wrapping
around this surface low across the Genesee Valley and points
eastward will yield a few more showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder before conditions continue to slowly improve from west to
east. Abundant low level moisture will produce IFR ceiling heights
at time along the southern Lake ONtario shoreline (KROC), as well as
east of Lake Ontario (KART).

Expect generally VFR flight conditions for KIAG-KBUF-KJHW through
the TAF cycle, with KROC and KART improving too, but remaining MVFR/
low end VFR through the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...Improving to VFR in the afternoon. Scattered
showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario.

Friday through Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/VFR. Showers likely with a chance
of a few thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon along lake breeze boundaries.

&&

.MARINE...

Surface low pressure near far eastern New York State this
afternoon will rotate to southern New England tonight. Expect a
northerly flow to continue on the Lakes, with choppy conditions
across eastern Lake Ontario waters where wind speeds will
continue around 15 knots this afternoon.

Winds will begin to diminish overnight, yet remain with a
northern flow. Winds will become lightly from the southwesterly
direction on Lake Erie tomorrow as lake breeze circulations
develop and upstream surface high pressure drops across the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas