191
FXUS61 KBUF 292331
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
731 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cool airmass for the end of August will allow for a
few more scattered showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario
through the first half of tonight. High pressure will then gradually
settle across the region through the long holiday weekend...bringing
dry weather and a day to day warming trend that will last into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers will continue east and southeast of Lake Ontario
this evening in close proximity to a closed low over southern
Quebec.

As we push through the late evening hours, the diurnally-driven
cumulus and showers east of Lake Ontario will fade with the loss of
heating... while some lake effect clouds and a few more lake effect
showers develop southeast of Lake Ontario in the vicinity of an
increasingly well-defined low level convergence zone. These
scattered showers may extend as far west as the Rochester area.
Elsewhere conditions will be dry...with some valley fog also
becoming possible across the Southern Tier overnight with
radiational cooling. Speaking of which...our cool airmass will allow
for lows to fall into the 40s in most areas away from the immediate
lakeshores tonight...with interior portions of the Southern Tier and
North Country quite possibly even seeing some upper 30s.

On Saturday the upper level low will make its way east to New
England...while high pressure and drier air continues to build into
our region from the central Great Lakes. The latter will allow for
fair dry weather...with some airmass modification allowing for
somewhat warmer highs ranging from the lower 60s across the higher
terrain to the mid and upper 60s across most of the lower
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expansive high pressure will take up residence from the Great Lakes
to New England Saturday night through Tuesday, setting up a stretch
of dry weather to close out the last holiday weekend of summer.
Expect mostly sunny days Sunday through Tuesday with a day to day
warming trend. Highs in the 70s Sunday and Monday will push to near
80 for lower elevations by Tuesday as the airmass gradually
modifies. Nights will still be cool, and this will likely support
some river valley fog each late night and morning across the
Southern Tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through midweek as surface
high pressure gradually drifts off the east coast. Wednesday,
another strong trough will dig into the upper Midwest, with
downstream height falls beginning to spread east across the Great
Lakes. Some timing differences with this system begin to show in
deterministic and ensemble guidance, with just a low chance of a few
showers arriving by late in the day across Western NY. It will still
be quite warm, with highs around 80 for lower elevations.

The pattern remains progressive and amplifies significantly across
North America late next week, with a strong ridge over the Rockies
and a deep longwave trough carving out across the Great Lakes. Large
scale forcing ahead of the trough and associated cold front may
phase with an additional southern stream shortwave rounding the base
of the trough to support a period of widespread rain potential
Thursday, followed by a few more showers Friday. It will turn
notably cooler again behind the cold front by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extensive stratocumulus across Western NY early this evening will
evolve into somewhat more localized lake effect clouds southeast of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by late this evening, with some upslope
clouds persisting as well east of Lake Ontario. CIGS will generally
be VFR with these clouds. Scattered showers will continue through
the first half of the night east and southeast of Lake Ontario with
brief/local VSBY restrictions.

Expect patchy fog in the river valleys of the Southern Tier with
local IFR late tonight and Saturday morning. Some of this may impact
KJHW for a few hours around sunrise.

Dry weather will return Saturday, with any remaining scattered
showers generally east of the area across northeast NY. Any
remaining lake effect clouds southeast of the lakes will evolve into
diurnal cumulus fields inland from the lakes by midday, with these
clouds tending to scatter out later in the day as the shallow layer
of low level moisture mixes out and depletes.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river
valley fog each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northwesterlies through tonight will turn more westerly
during Saturday...when winds will become a little more brisk on Lake
Ontario. Expect moderately choppy conditions on Lake Ontario through
tonight to become quite choppy across the eastern half of that lake
on Saturday...though at this point winds and waves appear to remain
a little below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Additionally...a few
passing showers will remain possible across eastern portions of Lake
Ontario through tonight...with these capable of producing
waterspouts.

High pressure will then settle across the Lower Great Lakes through
the rest of the long holiday weekend while bringing a return to
lighter winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...JJR