Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
856 FXUS61 KBUF 012334 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 634 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Maximum temperatures continue to trend up for Tuesday and Wednesday. Bumped up the probability of widely scattered showers Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm weather will continue through the week, with the warmest days expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. 2) Unsettled weather returns to the region late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm weather will continue through the week, with the warmest days expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern becomes more amplified across the CONUS with a deep trough across the Plains and a building ridge across the east through midweek. Surface high pressure will persist across the eastern seaboard and maintain mostly dry weather through Wednesday. During this time, warm air advection will strengthen across the region. Weak isentropic lift and increasing moisture will support widely scattered showers across western NY Tuesday morning, and across north-central NY late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Dry air will move back into the region from west to east Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. While clouds and a few showers impact the region Tuesday, 850mb temperatures are expected to reach +11C. Max temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s. The upper level ridge is expected to build further north on Wednesday. Another very warm day for early November is expected with maximum temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. Forecast southerly winds will likely limit lake breeze influences across the region. This setup translates to a very unusual event for the region for early November according to the ECMWF EFI. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns to the region late in the week. A deep trough and closed low will move from the Mid-West to eastern Canada late in the work week. A deep southerly flow orginating from the Gulf and the southern Atlantic Ocean will move into the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday night through Thursday. Forcing from the surface to 500mb and deep moisture will support medium to high confidence for showers across the region. This will provide some relief to the recent dry spell, however confidence in rainfall amounts remains low. Cooler air will build into the region from west to east Thursday, however it will remain warm especially from the Finger Lakes region into north-central NY. Cooler weather, although still above normal is expected Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry/VFR weather will continue through Monday as surface high pressure slowly drifts east and off the mid-Atlantic coastline... with just a general increase in mid/high cloud cover expected through the TAF period. Outlook... Monday night...Mainly VFR with a few spotty showers possible overnight. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few scattered showers possible. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...Restrictions possible with showers likely. Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers. && .MARINE... A strong surface high centered over the Mid Atlantic coastline will slowly drift eastward and offshore through Tuesday. This will allow a light to modest south to southwesterly flow to prevail through Tuesday, with winds and waves remaining well below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather and warming temperatures through Monday. This will continue to maintain very dry fine fuels and leaf litter. There is a chance of showers Tuesday but dry weather will resume Wednesday, unsettled weather potentially returns Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...JJR/TMA MARINE...JJR FIRE WEATHER...AR/Hitchcock